Interesting take on Aguero. I think one of the biggest issues with Aguero is the lack of Yaya. I wonder if ManC are feeling his absence more than we think. They look far less effective - and therefore far less likely to create chances for Aguero - without him.

I know from experience though that Aguero is a season changing player. I captained him in Gameweek 8 and went from 158,647th to 6,923rd. In Gameweek 14 he took me to the edge of the top 1K with his 16 pt haul. There are very few players who can do that in FPL.

The period you want to be looking at is gw6-15

What about if you have all 3 players in your squad?

Surely the Aguero vs Sanchez/Costa argument becomes null and void.

Good article. Think the main point is that no one essential, there are always ways to get more points. Having said that is anyone really brave enough to not have kun for Hull at home (assuming plays ok at Chelsea)

I guess Aguero has made few sub appearances which ruins that points per million per game stats

I am starting to question having all of Costa, Aguero, ADM, Sanchez and Hazard in my WC team, especially since my team value is fairly low at 104,1 mil. Which of the above would you guys drop? I am currently on:

Krul-Panti
Clyne-Colo-PvA-Wisdom-Naughton
ADM-Sanchez-Hazard-Elia-Boyd
Costa-AGuero-Kane

0,3 in the bank.

This leaves me with 2 cheap midfielder, where one has to start every week. A third striker which will be hard to upgrade to someone like Austin if he loses his form and a defense without Terry.
Doing either Sanchez > Cazorla, or Hazard + ADM > Fab + David Silva would léave me with enough money to upgrade some of the other positions.

No one is really essential. However, what we are really after is the most predictable way to make the most points. Sure if you picked managed to pick the right captain each week it would be great, but whilst some people luck out, others dont.

Because no one 'knows' who is going to score there is basically a large element of luck involved in picking a captain, in an ideal world we would like to reduce this and maximise our returns as far as possible.

decent article but still think there is bias in it.
to start with I don't think anyone who puts any effort into this game would just leave the armband on aguero every week, the likelyhood is most also own one or both of the other two so this week for example nobody is going to go with aguero over sanchez or even costa. I am pretty sure if you do the same calculations to any individual player in comparison to any two others who have scored just as well then the pair will always come out on top.
having looked at the figures the way you did, but adjusted them for difficult games for aguero when either of other two had far easier games and also taken into account that people would pick one of the pairing on form and occasionally opponents no matter if home or away this is what i find
costa/ sanchez up to week 16 = 105
aguero and either of others on better games up to week 16= 115

costa/sanchez up to week 22 = 141
aguero and either of others on better games up to week= 150 ,
this is going without aguero captain last two as the others had much better fixtures and aguero just back from injury so unsure if he would play.

you could also throw in that it is possible you sold costa when injured or doubts started about his value and only brought in aguero instead just as his form shot up, then also throw in that you didnt bring aguero back last two weeks but stuck with other two, therefore giving you even more points.

This obviously doesn't prove that aguero is essential but just showing that numbers can be used to show anything and it isnt as simple as saying you would captain aguero every week

Just bring him in and enjoy the pts. Stop this scientific approach nonsense IMO. He has highest goal ratio in the history of PL

waiting to bring Kun in for Hull.
will have:
Pants, Foster
Trippier, Ivanovic, Bertand, van An, Bruce
Hazard, Puncheon, Sanchez, Boyd, Chadli
Aguero, Kane, Costa
quite template. currently top 5k.
looking to shuffle the mid and rear guard some and keep those three up top

Any stats on how many in the top 10K have already used their WC?

If u sell aguero..with the aguero cash i do not really think u can improve your team much.

Even with aguero ur other areas are strong enough.

I think your point about the need to spend money is crucial to this conversation, especially about captaincy. Giving yourself 3-4 legitimate captain options is massively important at this point with teams solidifying around the same players so you have to overpay for those premium assets, imo.

Shocking as it may be, considering they are the defending champions, another issue to consider is how many allotted spots any one club takes up. Not many tinkering with Wild Card drafts have seen the message
"Too many players selected from Man City"
so Aguero doesn't limit your roster flexibility elsewhere like the Chelsea and Arsenal players do.

Pretty sure everyone should be able to afford Costa Aguero Sanchez Hazard -- why go without the one who is least likely of all of them to max out your roster allotment since there are so many value options right behind them to get for those last few attacking spots?

Although I appreciate the effort you've put in this and the fact that I disagree with the Kun fanboys on here that were adamant it was necessary to get him before GW 24 despite ARS, che, I still think you are slightly clutching at straws. You have basically created a huge argument to justify your decision to go without him potentially whereas sometimes FPL is much simpler than that.

Agreed that Aguero isn't essential, and based on his production so far this season, you could argue he's not even a good buy. The difference for me is that based on his shot numbers, Aguero is perhaps underperforming a little bit. He's averaging 6.09 shots per 90 minutes, and 4.85 shots in the box per 90 minutes vs Costa's 3.45 and 2.89. Even against Arsenal, when Aguero was completely anonymous and ineffective, he was a last ditch deflection from an Arsenal defender away from a goal.

Costa's a great pick too, and he could easily end up with the golden boot, but while if he's fit, Aguero's in my team. His upside is just so high.

This article misses one important point.
The first six gameweeks virtually nobody owned Aguero. I was lucky to bring him in for GW7 for his big hauls.
Its a little unfair bo include the first six gameweeks simply because he was hardly owned, and is also the period when Costa did particularly well

or do what I've done and have all three!

Something a lot of people seem to be forgetting is the part of the season that Aguero missed.....

EVE lei CPL wba BUR

All these 5 teams are in the bottom half of the table..... The other 5 teams in the bottom half of the table include QPR, Hull, Sun, AVL and New against whom he scored 13, 8, 16, 7 and 6 points respectively.....

A last comment from me. I believe 'the template' has got it quite wrong by concentrating far too much on premium midfielders and forwards. A team is better balanced without them all.

If you have, say, Sanchez, Aguero and Costa (or Hazard) that's the captain issue sorted as JT's Dog pointed out above. You can happily captain one of them every GW for the rest of the season (excluding a DGW).

After that it's purely a matter of value (points per £1m). And the players that deliver best points per £1m are by majority defenders.

You won't find Aguero, Costa, Hazard, Silva, ADM or any of those in the top 60 players in the game on value so far this season. Best premium mid is Sanchez in 60th place. Best medium mids are Eriksen (43rd) and Oscar (57th). There are NO premium forwards or even medium ones in the top 60 on value at all.

But there are plenty of premium and medium defenders in there. Bertrand (1st), Clyne (7th), Terry (8th), Ivan (11th), Fonte (13th), Cresswell (30th), Janmaat (31st), Clichy (43rd), Baines (48th), Jagielka (53rd). Amongst the top 30 players on value there are 19 GKs and defenders to 11 mids and fwds (and other than Sigurdsson, Downing, Chadli and Austin these are all 6.0 or below). Look at places 31-60 on value and it's the same story again. 17 GKs and defenders to 13 mids and fwds.

The optimum team construction should mean investing relatively more in defence than people usually do and probably playing 4-4-2 with a cheap 5th defender, cheap 5th mid and cheap 3rd forward (although you might tweak this a bit by using attacking and defensive rotations). That's what I am now going to do with my wildcard and it results in a very nice team that is quite far away from the template. No Hazard, no ADM, no Silva, no Fabregas, no Sterling.

Please note that what I am writing about here is the shape of a squad, not the personnel. Obviously bringing the right players in and out of your team at the right time is also very important (form, fixtures, who looks like improving and who is going off the boil). But that's another matter. This is just about the shape of the squad.

As a footnote to the article, really what I am saying is that no player is essential although having 2 or 3 good captain options IS essential (assessed purely on points scored, not value). After that it has to be value, value, value all the way.