Can we ‘predict’ goals using a negative xG delta?

Former champion Simon March asks if we can really predict when goals are ‘due’
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doku | MCI | 6.4m | 83.9% | Likely |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 5.2m | 84.0% | Maybe |
| Verbruggen | BHA | 4.5m | 88.5% | Maybe |
| Okafor | LEE | 5.6m | 82.8% | Maybe |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 88.2% | Unlikely |
| Welbeck | BHA | 6.3m | 48.8% | Unlikely |
| Gabriel | ARS | 7.2m | 72.9% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 78.3% | Unlikely |
| F.Kadıoğlu | BHA | 4.4m | 68.7% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 77.3% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.7m | 70.0% | Unlikely |
| Richarlison | TOT | 6.3m | 60.9% | Unlikely |
| Mateta | CRY | 7.6m | 57.2% | Unlikely |
| Casemiro | MUN | 5.8m | 56.2% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 60.7% | Unlikely |
| Osula | NEW | 5.4m | 55.9% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 59.7% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 59.2% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 59.2% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 63.6% | Unlikely |
| Kroupi.Jr | BOU | 4.6m | 44.7% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 54.5% | Unlikely |
| Saka | ARS | 9.9m | 27.1% | Unlikely |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 7.0m | 37.2% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.1m | 54.6% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 50.8% | Unlikely |
| Bruno G. | NEW | 6.8m | 45.8% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 49.8% | Unlikely |
| Gyökeres | ARS | 8.9m | 28.2% | Unlikely |
| Van Hecke | BHA | 4.6m | 36.5% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 47.5% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 48.3% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 43.9% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 43.4% | Unlikely |
| Brobbey | SUN | 5.3m | 43.9% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 39.4% | Unlikely |
| Minteh | BHA | 5.5m | 38.5% | Unlikely |
| Tavernier | BOU | 5.4m | 44.9% | Unlikely |
| Mitoma | BHA | 6.1m | 37.4% | Unlikely |
| N.Williams | NFO | 4.8m | 40.4% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | CHE | 10.4m | 91.5% | Likely |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 7.7m | 84.8% | Likely |
| Mbeumo | MUN | 8.4m | 106.3% | Very Likely |
| Bowen | WHU | 7.8m | 87.4% | Likely |
| Rogers | AVL | 7.5m | 87.0% | Likely |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.4m | 70.5% | Likely |
| Enzo | CHE | 6.5m | 86.4% | Likely |
| Merino | ARS | 5.4m | 99.5% | Maybe |
| Andrey Santos | CHE | 4.5m | 99.0% | Maybe |
| Xavi | TOT | 6.4m | 78.2% | Maybe |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 90.0% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Gordon | NEW | 7.4m | 74.5% | Unlikely |
| Scott | BOU | 5.1m | 81.5% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 90.9% | Unlikely |
| Summerville | WHU | 5.5m | 69.4% | Unlikely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 93.0% | Unlikely |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 92.7% | Unlikely |
| Thiaw | NEW | 5.0m | 75.2% | Unlikely |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 89.9% | Unlikely |
| Lucca | NFO | 5.4m | 90.1% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 89.3% | Unlikely |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 89.1% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 89.0% | Unlikely |
| Keane | EVE | 4.5m | 84.8% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 87.9% | Unlikely |
| Tolu | WOL | 5.2m | 82.6% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 83.1% | Unlikely |
| Woltemade | NEW | 6.7m | 80.6% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 81.7% | Unlikely |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 80.9% | Unlikely |
| O.Dango | BRE | 5.7m | 44.9% | Unlikely |
| Iwobi | FUL | 6.2m | 71.5% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 78.1% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 76.8% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 76.4% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 75.9% | Unlikely |
| Van den Berg | BRE | 4.5m | 58.8% | Unlikely |
| Zubimendi | ARS | 5.0m | 64.3% | Unlikely |
| Obi | MUN | 4.2m | 72.2% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| Up | CRY | C | |
| No Change | EVE | C | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | B, Vs, £ | |
| Down | SUN | B |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| Up | CRY | A | |
| No Change | EVE | C | |
| Up | BHA | B | |
| Up | LEE | B, Vs, £ | |
| Up | BOU | C, £ | |
| Down | SUN | C | |
| Down | LIV | A | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| No Change | AVL | C |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | A | |
| Up | MCI | A | |
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| No Change | FUL | B | |
| No Change | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| No Change | NFO | A | |
| No Change | EVE | A, £ | |
| No Change | CHE | C | |
| Down | LIV | C | |
| No Change | BOU | C, £ | |
| No Change | BHA | B, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | BRE | B | |
| No Change | WHU | A | |
| No Change | AVL | A | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | CHE | C | |
| Up | LIV | B |

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