The Sun’s headline after the December draw: E-A-S-Y, England, Algeria, Slovenia, and Yanks. Group C may prove simple enough for England, but identifying surefire fantasy assets, with the exception of Wayne Rooney, is far from easy. Also, while England was pleased with the draw, every team in the group looked around and thought (quite rightly) that it could have been a lot worse. We’ll find out soon enough who will take advantage of the opportunity that has been presented.
Digging into the fantasy prospects, a starting XI from Group C realistically consists of 10 English players standing in front of an American or Slovenian keeper. In addition to the goalkeepers, there are only a handful of players from the other three teams with any serious chance of making the 23-man England squad. England’s superiority over the other teams on an individual, position-by-position basis may be put to the test but should be sufficient to overcome the benefits of team cohesiveness that are the bedrock of Team USA and Slovenia…
England and USA, the group’s top teams, meet in the opening match. A loss by either will not be the end of the world, but caution may be the word of the day, as neither squad will want to chase a lead. The projected England victory would have a couple of potentially significant impacts on the rest of group play: (a) forcing USA to open up and play for a win against Slovenia in order to control their fate in the group’s final game and (b) allowing England to secure advancement after only two games, with no more than a draw needed in the group finale to secure the top spot. Rotation in certain positions could then become a threat.
Slovenia (the Dragons) were the the dragon slayers during qualification and seek to continue in that role, but if all proceeds according to form, England could meet Group D’s likely runner-up, Serbia, in the knockout stage, while USA gets Germany and a chance to avenge its 2002 quarter final loss. The England schedule potentially continues to the quarters against France, and then semis with the winner of Holland vs Brazil potentially lying in wait. Of course, group play and elimination rounds seldom go according to form.
England
An “easy” group followed by a reasonable lineup of opponents in the elimination rounds has certainly added to hope and expectations for a strong England squad made up of 23 domestic players with whom Premier League fantasy owners are very familiar. Yet, it is important not to get ahead of oneself, as even if England sticks to the script and wins Group C, something as simple as Argentina and Germany dropping into second place in Groups B and D would change England’s prospective elimination round opponents from Serbia followed by France to a more ominous sounding Germany followed by Argentina.
Different players pose different issues, but England’s run up to the Finals has raised further questions about the age, frailty, and/or recklessness of certain defensive players (only magnified by the bizarre injury forcing the late withdrawal of Rio Ferdinand). And the Japan friendly certainly did not inspire confidence when it took two own goals to grab victory. But, there remains something to be said in tournament play for creating your own luck and for winning ugly.
The English squad will presumably face their toughest group game in the June 12 opener and then should be able to put it on auto-pilot as long as they do not lose that crucial first outing.
The Fantasy Targets…
Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole
Right side. Left side. Right side. Left side. Okay, flip a coin. While there are plenty of questions that will need to be answered in the run of play about England’s defence, Paddy Power still has England at 7/1 and as the third most likely team to have the most clean sheets during the competition. Those odds seems ridiculously confident to me, but I consider that gravy in any event as Johnson and Cole have repeatedly demonstrated sufficient attacking prowess to deserve consideration even without clean sheets.
Frank Lampard
Lampard raised his game to a new level during the past Premier League season with 22 goals and 17 assists, making it increasingly hard to bet against him in any game. Yet, questions continue to linger about Lampard’s role in the England side, which always give pause at his typically “healthy” price and goals have never come as easily for him at the international level. Going back four years, Lampard went scoreless during the 2006 World Cup, but he seemed to find form more recently, bagging six international goals during 2009, including four in qualifiers. Two recent penalty kick misses (one for Chelsea and one for England) pose yet an additional concern that could potentially direct impact to fantasy returns but he insists he is looking to keep spot-kick duties. Those together with his ability from direct free-kicks will surely be vital to his Fantasy output.
Steven Gerrard
The newly promoted captain, Gerrard frustrated many of us during the past league season, with 9 goals and 7 assists coming nowhere near expectations (or value for money). Interestingly, a contributing factor to his drop off in production this past season was the managerial decision to frequently play him in a deeper role, which may be where he finds himself deployed for country as well. For England, Gerrard scored three goals in seven qualifying games during 2009. It’s not a reason to select him when he is priced comparably to Lampard, but it would make perfect sense after recent Fantasy disappointments that the cruel Fantasy Gods will turn and punish those who ignore him. Like Lampard, his ability to strike a ball from distance from open play and set-pieces will be crucial to England and his returns.
Wayne Rooney
Rooney comes off a spectacular league season that saw him emerge in profound ways following Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure. Despite missing six games, Rooney still scored 26 goals and picked up an additional six assists. Rooney led the England squad in qualifying, grabbing nine goals in nine games (over 25% of England’s impressive total of 34). There appear to be no lingering effects from late season injuries, and it is telling that much of the talk of selecting England’s other strikers revolved around who would best support Rooney. If England are to prosper in the Finals, it seems inevitable that they will need a huge contribution from Rooney.
Peter Crouch
Although many Fantasy Managers will spend their cash on “top” strikers and take their gambles elsewhere, Crouch does provide a less conventional target and a tempting differential to the Rooney bandwagon. There’s no ignoring the stats; the Spurs striker has provided surprisingly good returns at the international level. In 2009, for example, Crouch netted four goals during qualifying in only three starts and four total appearances. Now handed the number nine shirt, one has to wonder if he will get a run of games next to Rooney. If he does, he will surely pose problems particularly to the Algerians who looked fragile at set-plays going into the tournament.
USA
The US squad gained confidence and some additional respect via last summer’s second place showing at the Confederations Cup, a test run that included a semi-final victory over Spain and early 2-0 lead over Brazil in the final. They now come in with wins in friendlies with Turkey and Australia. The Americans are used to being the underdog, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to being favored as the number two team in the group. While the squad has shown it can beat anyone on any given day and is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of a result against England, the Slovenia game remains the real key to advancing.
Defensively, the team should be avoided from a Fantasy perspective. Tim Howard is a top class keeper, and will continue to build on the international reputations of past US stars Brad Friedel and Kasey Keller. However, proceed with caution as he can only carry this defence so far and the US team has shown more than a few holes in recent games. Even in victory the rearguard can often lack organisation as demonstrated on several occasions in today’s 3-1 win over Australia. Onyewu Oguchi didn’t start and the US need him healthy. He is a physical specimen with pace and strength but his fitness will be a concern after a lengthy knee-related layoff. Carlos Bocanegra meanwhile moves from a central role to left-back due to the absence of any other viable options. To be clear, this defense lacks depth. While England can reload and call in someone like the in-form Michael Dawson when Ferdinand got injured, the US does not even have that luxury and will need as many minutes as possible from the first four. Cards and/or injuries will impair any chance of making an impression.
In attacking terms, the US team is primarily about speed and counter-attacking. Premier League followers will recognize the key names – Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey, and Jozy Altidore – who will be looked upon to lead the US attack, along with central midfielder and timely goal poacher Michael Bradley. The foursome scored 5, 5, 6, and 5 goals, respectively, during qualifying – a balanced attack and over half of Team USA’s qualifying goals. Bolton’s Stuart Holden and Pachuca’s Francisco Torres are positioning themselves as impact players while Edson Buddle, leading scorer in the MLS, took his opportunity today in Altidore’s absence by firing a brace in the win over the Socceroos. Assuming Altidore is fit, there remains no clear indication of who will partner him, although Buddle certainly improved his case today. It remains counter-intuitive to me, but in the McDonald’s/FIFA game, Holden, Torres and Buddle might still be considered since they are cheap, play early in the group rounds, could make an unpredicted impact, and can be subbed out without penalty if nothing magical happens.
The Fantasy Targets…
Carlos Bocanegra
While Howard is the most obvious defensive selection and will be considered by many, it’s difficult to recommend the US back four, particularly with the opening game being England. If you’re searching for a differential pick, Bocanegra is worthy of a thought, particularly after the first game. During qualifying, he scored 2 goals and some may recall the aberrational 5 league goals that he scored during the 2006-07 season for Fulham. Now moved to the left back, he will push forward during the run of play, and with his size he will still be permitted to gatecrash the opposition’s box on corners and free-kicks. It’s a speculative play at best, but as good as is available from the US rearguard. Steve Cherundolo looks to have beaten out Jonathan Spector for the right back position; he provides similar assist potential from the flank, but without the involvement on corners.
Landon Donovan
Donovan opened some eyes with his performance for Everton this past season. In reality, his experience at Goodison tells us little about his role at this level, as Donovan was able, if not encouraged, to take up a supporting role at Everton. Yet, for the US team, he needs to be the leader. Donovan emerged on the international scene at Japan/South Korea in 2002 and played with a youthful reckless abandon that has been not been as prevalent as he has matured. He was superb during qualifying in 2005 but then largely ineffective at the 2006 World Cup. As goes Donovan, so does Team USA. Donovan may not end up the team’s leading scorer, but he will likely be involved in some way if the team is scoring, as evidenced by his two assists in the recent 2-1 victory over Turkey. Donovan has the added advantage of spot-kick duties.
Clint Dempsey
It remains unclear where Dempsey will play for the US team, but he will likely see some time in a supporting forward role with the balance at one of the outside midfield positions. Dempsey found a quality strike for a goal against Ghana in the 2006 World Cup, scored twice during the 2009 Confederations’ Cup (including against Spain), and has put up consistent totals of 6, 7, and 7 league goals for Fulham during the past three Premier League seasons. It occasionally feels like he disappears at times during USA games, but the distance tracker regularly shows him as one of the most active players and he has more than demonstrated his ability to be a big game player.
Slovenia
Slovenia has the smallest population of the qualifying countries with just over 2 million residents, and yet makes its second appearance in the World Cup finals in just eight years after gaining its independence in the 1990’s. While the squad may be short on superstars, they have relied on a unified approach to the game founded on a strong defence. A lapse of concentration by the English or Americans could easily result in an upset.
While lacking an extended “big club” (or even “big league”) pedigree, Slovenia has demonstrated their capabilities. Despite being projected to finish fifth out six, Slovenia finished second in its Euro qualifying group by besting Czech Republic, Poland, and Northern Ireland. Slovenia posted two victories over fellow World Cup participant Slovakia, as well as wins over Poland and Northern Ireland (and then Russia). The defence was the key in the group stages and they conceded just four goals in 10 qualifying games. They eventually sneaked past the heavily favored Russian team on the away goals rule in the playoff, picking up a late strike on the road in a 2-1 loss before prevailing 1-0 at home. Having leaked only 6 goals in 12 games (10 games if we exclude the two games against San Marino), Slovenia will be a difficult nut to crack and may frustrate their opponents.
Although they can’t afford to lose the opening game, Slovenia should find some advantage in starting with Algeria which could see them earn a foundation to enable to them to approach the games with England and USA with some confidence.
The Fantasy Targets…
Samir Handanovič
Handanovič is the name of choice for Slovenian goalies, so be sure if you’re making this choice that you take Samir, who played in 9 of the 12 qualifying games (including all of the games during the hot streak down the stretch and both of the Russia games). After Slovenia conceded a single goal in four of the first six qualifying games (respectable in its own right), Slovenia with Handanovič in goal secured clean sheets in five of their last six games, conceding only the two goals in the first Russia game during this period. At 25 years of age, Handanovič currently holds the starting spot for Udinese and is rated as one of the best stoppers in Serie A. A major move after the tournament looks likely. For any McDonalds/FIFA Manager playing a numbers/substitution game and in search for a goalie with a handy early fixture, Handanovič presents a reasonable option with Algeria up first.
Miso Brecko
The right back has a fantastic work-rate and desire that never flounders over the 90 minutes. He’s also adaptable; used to play as a defensive midfielder, but his energy and crossing ability suits the defensive position better, where he can get up and down the wing, repelling any opposing forwards and helping out in his own team’s attacks. Plays at Cologne with star striker Novakovic, and should have a better understanding with the big striker than most. Of all the Slovenia defenders, has the most potential for attacking points.
Robert Koren
Slovenia’s captain and one of their star players is none other than Robert Koren, who some of you may recall as a West Bromwich Albion midfielder. Koren was a reliable and steady performer in the Premier League during 2008/09 with 34 starts and 2 league goals. Koren often pulls the strings for Slovenia and will play some part from set-plays, but don’t expect a truckload of goals (two goals in 11 qualifying games). Stepping back from South Africa, Koren finds himself in an interesting position, as following West Brom’s relegation, Koren fell out of favor, saw reduced playing time this past season, and was released just a few weeks ago.
Valter Birsa
Birsa started the last six qualifiers for Slovenia, which coincided with a final stretch that saw Slovenia win 5 of 6 games. Classified as a forward in the McDonald’s/FIFA game, he is a fleet-footed lefty who will frequently line up in the right midfield, but will still get forward as demonstrated by qualifying goals against Poland and a magnificent strike from distance against Slovakia. At the age of 23, Birsa already has 33 caps (his first international appearance was at the age of 18) and has just completed his fourth season as a professional in the French Ligue 1. While described as a consummate team player, Birsa must recognize that this is the stage to take his career to the next level.
Milivoje Novakovič
The 6’4” Milivoje Novakovič led the squad in scoring in qualifying with five of Slovenia’s 18 goals (he plays his club ball at Cologne, where he has 51 goals in 108 appearances during the past 4 seasons). A lanky striker who prefers the ball at his feet he demonstrates good movement and the ability to elude markers. He can also pose a threat from set-plays; two goals from free kicks in yesterday’s send-off game against New Zealand will certainly bolster his confidence and raise Fantasy awareness for those looking for a budget option in the McDonalds/FIFA game.
Algeria
After qualifying in 1982 and 1986, Algeria returns to the World Cup finals after a lengthy absence. Algeria has never advanced beyond the first round, although as a brief historical note, Algeria’s elimination in 1982 prompted the change in the modern format that has had the final group games played simultaneously in every Cup since then to minimize last game conspiracies and shenanigans. Briefly, Algeria won two of three games in group play in 1982 including an opening game upset of West Germany, finishing group play the day prior to the group finale between West Germany and Austria. Knowing that West Germany needed to win but by no than two goals for both to advance, West Germany got the goal that it needed for a 1-0 victory and then the two teams were content to play out a fairly uneventful second half to see both advance at Algeria’s expense.
In 2009, Algeria ended qualifying tied with Egypt, and secured qualification with a 1-0 victory over the Egyptians in a very physical game. Including the tie-breaking game, the “Desert Foxes” scored 10 goals and conceded 4 in 7 games of the final qualifying round, but it is difficult to draw comparisons to World Cup competition with those results coming against Zambia and Rwanda in addition to Egypt.
Algeria’s slim prospects took a serious blow with the recent news that Lazio’s Mourad Meghni would not be able to play due to injury but they do have some players with European experience to turn to elsewhere. Wolfsburg’s Karim Ziani is hugely influential from midfield and tied for leading scorer with 3 goals during all qualifying rounds. Madjid Bougherra plays for Rangers but is attracking interest from elsewhere having enjoyed a strong season in Scotland; he is battling an injury but should take up a strong central position in the defence. Portsmouth’s Hassan Yebda and Nadir Belhadj (classified as a defender in most games but likely to lineup as a midfielder in a 3-5-2 with an influence at set-pieces), and Wolverhampton’s Adlene Guidoura will also be familiar names and key figures.
Algeria benefits from avoiding England and USA in the first match, but it is difficult to see them advancing even should they knock off Slovenia in their opener. Four consecutive defeats in friendlies, including a 3-0 loss to the Republic of Ireland last time out, fail to inspire confidence. The reality is that Algeria will likely concede goals against this level of competition and no one has stood out as a regular scorer. Perhaps Ghezzal Abdel deserves a mention for scoring two goals in the last seven games, but even with the ability to substitute in the McDonald’s/FIFA game, it is a serious gamble to consider any of the Algerians as fantasy selections.
The Fantasy Targets…
Karim Ziani
The tough, uncompromising midfielder will likely be Algeria’s key figure in their Finals campaign. A creative influence as well as a fierce tackler, Ziani has the ability to play in several positions but is likely to sit in central midfield. Wolfsburg certainly recognised his talents and snapped him up in June last year after two successful seasons at Marseille but he has suffered a frustrating first spell at the club, clashing with teammates and the coach. Recent comments by the player would suggest that a move is immanent so Ziani could well be playing for a contract in his performances in the Finals. Expect to see Ziani on penalties and free kicks – only today Ziani fired the winner from the spot against United Arab Emirates. This responsibility at set-plays make him a possible budget temptation from Algeria’s ranks.