Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Norwich and Stoke

We roll out the third piece in a series of articles which analyse potential rotation pairings for the season ahead this morning. Having cast an eye over the West Ham/Southampton and Hull/Crystal Palace combinations, we now take a look at the prospects offered up twinning Norwich with Stoke.

The Fixtures

In a situation similar to our previous couple of examples, both Norwich and Stoke alternate perfectly on a home and away basis across the entire 38 Gameweeks. Over the first half of the season, the run of home fixtures on offer look strong and include four games against promoted sides, with just five fixtures against any of last term’s top six.

This applies to Norwich on three occasions – Gameweek 1 at home to Everton, Gameweek 7 against Chelsea and Gameweek 19 when United roll up to Carrow Road, while Stoke face City and Chelsea in Gameweeks 4 and 15 respectively. For those Fantasy managers eyeing up a three-way rotation, Fulham look the best fit with a schedule that reads (sun, WBA, STO, AVL, hul) over those five particular Gameweeks. Indeed, the Cottagers also rotate with Norwich over 36 of the 38 Gameweeks, offering a viable alternative to the “perfect” home and away rotation offered by the Potters. However, it’s a pairing that breaks as early as Gameweek 8 with two away trips, followed by a daunting Gameweek 10 that serves up a choice of a home fixture with United or an away trip to City.

The Norwich/Stoke partnership looks more inviting over the first half of the season, with the season climax looking a little more problematic. Between Gameweeks 20-28, this pairing would entertain Everton, Liverpool, United, City, Spurs and Arsenal over a run of nine matches, while home games against Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal from Gameweek 35 onwards is again a little tricky and may prompt changes for the run-in.

Defence

Stoke
The departure of Tony Pulis and subsequent arrival of Mark Hughes could well have a knock-on effect on how we assess the Potters’ main Fantasy assets for the season ahead. Stoke had the seventh best backline in the Premier League last time out – 45 goals against were just two more than United and Liverpool, for example – but Hughes’ determination to introduce a more attacking brand of football could prove detrimental to their ability to keep out opponents.

Certainly, Asmir Begovic should remain nailed-on for the Staffordshire outfit but after finishing 2012/13 on 144 points, joint-second for keepers, it would be a real surprise if his price is less than 5.5 in Fantasy Premier League. Having started last term at 4.5, the Bosnian was a budget sensation but with a loftier price tag attached, his appeal is likely to somewhat diminish. Robert Huth may be one to profit from Hughes’ installation. The big German has admittedly failed to justify our faith in the past couple of campaigns but he’ll be hoping to replicate the displays of Brede Hangeland, who racked up six goals under the Welshman at Fulham back in 20101/11. Although he managed just a single goal last term, Huth’s price is likely to remain at 5.5 due to Stoke’s defensive record, though the likes of Ryan Shotton and Marc Wilson may be cheaper at full-back, having started just 20 and 19 games respectively last time out. However, with reports of an approach for PSV Eindhoven left-back Erik Pieters, it appears that we could be in danger of losing Wilson as an option, unless Hughes looks to utilise his versatility and deploy him elsewhere.

While Stoke produced seven clean sheets at the Britannia, they were relatively resilient on the road and kept out their opponents on five occasions, with Begovic unbeaten away to the likes of Liverpool and Spurs. Indeed, in terms of goals against they were almost identical – Pulis’ side shipped 22 in front of their own fans compared to 23 away from home.

Norwich
The Canaries, on the other hand, were a little more predictable when it came to home and away returns. Eight of their 10 clean sheets arrived at Carrow Road, with Chris Hughton’s side keeping out the likes of United and Arsenal in front of their own fans and with both their away clean sheets arriving against relegated QPR and Reading, the decision to bench Norwich’s backline assets on the road was relatively straightforward.

Price-wise, John Ruddy is likely to benefit from the knee injury that forced him out of 23 of his side’s league matches last time out. The Canaries first-choice stopper may very well continue at his 2012/13 starting price of 4.5, given his lack of minutes – such a scenario would boost his prospects considerably and could bring Begovic into the equation, for those Fantasy managers willing to spend around 10.0 on a pair of keepers.

In terms of attacking potential, Seb Bassong, Michael Turner and Russell Martin all notched three times apiece last time out and while the former two also chipped in with a couple of assists, Turner proved to be more of a bonus point magnet, with 10 to Bassong’s five and Martin’s three. Bassong rarely missed a game, however, and ended up with 121 points – having started last term at 4.5 as a squad player at Spurs, he should move to 5.0 at least and may well come in at 5.5, taking his consistency of starts into account. Indeed, with the Norwich defenders likely to move out the budget bracket altogether, Ruddy could be superb value if he remains in the sub 5.0 category.

Attacking Options

The Main Men
With 34 goals to their name all season (21 at home, 13 away) Stoke were dire going forward under Pulis – only QPR, with 30 goals, found the net less often. From a positive perspective, a change in tactics under Hughes suggests there may well be better value further up the field in the campaign ahead.

Jon Walters profited from Pulis’ decision to occasionally field him in “the hole” and with spot-kick duties also in his locker, he accumulated 141 points last time out, courtesy of eight goals, three assists and 16 bonus points. The only Stoke outfield player to start every match, Walters could, conceivably, be set for a slight price rise to 7.0 or 7.5, though question marks remain as to whether he’ll operate in such an advanced position under Hughes. If Peter Crouch remains the first-choice forward, his seven goals and 128 point FPL haul is unlikely to result in a price increase and, similar to last term, should come in around 6.5 – Hughes’ more offensive style of play could prove beneficial to the former Spurs man next time round.

For Norwich, Robert Snodgrass will surely remain the stand-out option. The Scot was head and shoulders above any team mate last term and finished with 152 FPL points – 31 ahead of second placed Bassong and ninth overall for midfielders, above the likes of Frank Lampard and David Silva. With that in mind, a rise in cost seems inevitable – starting last term at 6.0 following his summer move from Leeds, Snodgrass is likely to move to around 7.0 but with set-pieces and corners in the bag, could still offer strong value. New boy Ricky Van Wolfswinkel has registered 28 goals in his past two seasons for Sporting Lisbon and is anticipated to come in around the 6.5 mark – security of starts shouldn’t be an issue, given the substantial fee Hughton has shelled out for his services.

Mid-Price and Budget Targets
Hughes has already talked up the prospects of Charlie Adam next time out. Subject of a recent Sleeper article, the Scot could be expected to hog set-pieces and corners if he is established as a first-team regular and, having produced a mere 85 points in 2012/13, should come in around 6.5 or even 6.0. Similarly, Matt Etherington will be hoping his prospects get back on track following Pulis’ departure. The winger produced 146, 124 and 121 points in the three season prior to last year but failed to register any attacking returns whatsoever – a drop to 6.0 looks certain, with even 5.5 a possibility.

Anthony Pilkington has the potential to be an under the radar option for the Canaries. The left winger notched five times in 25 starts compared to Snodgrass’ six goals in 35 appearances in the first XI and, having missed a few matches with a hamstring injury, may even drop to 5.5 from last season’s initial 6.0. Hughton’s tactics should determine how we assess the rest of his offensive options. If he continues with the 4-4-1-1 formation from his debut campaign in charge, Grant Holt looks set for no more than an impact sub role from the bench late on in games but a shift to a two man frontline could keep him on the radar, after he notched in each of Norwich’s last three fixtures in 2012/13. Holt’s omission from the starting line-up would also leave spot-kicks up for grabs and while Van Wolfswinkel may be favourite, the Dutchman’s poor conversion record may see Hughton look for alternatives. With the Canaries linked with a move for Swede Ola Toivonen, though, it seems Hughton is determined to freshen up his attacking options after seeing his side notch just 41 times in his debut season at Carrow Road.