Wednesday’s announcement of the 2013/14 Premier League fixture list has already given Fantasy managers plenty to ponder. Having rolled out our guide to the principles of rotation on Thursday, our attentions now turn to some of the most favourable pairings in accordance with the season’s schedule – to start things off, we take a look at the potential offered by West Ham and Southampton.
The Fixtures
The Hammers and Saints’ respective schedules complement each other perfectly, offering a home/away rotation pattern for all 38 Gameweeks across the upcoming campaign. Significantly, both sides have been handed strong schedules in front of their own fans over the opening few months – alternating in accordance with home fixture, you would face only three of last term’s top six in the opening 14 Gameweeks in a run that would read (CAR, SUN, STO, WHM, EVE, CPL, SWA, MCI, FUL, AVL, HUL, CHE, FUL, AVL).
Indeed, the West Ham/Southampton rotation pairing hosts one of the previous season’s top six sides just six times over the first half of the campaign – on one of these occasions, where West Ham host Arsenal in Gameweek 18, Mauricio Pochettino’s side travel to Cardiff and could take the place of our Hammers assets. In terms of fixture difficulty, then, that’s 14 home matches with a shade of blue on our tickers, plus one favourable away match from the opening 19 fixtures – an eye-catching partnership which will surely be utilised by many.
Long-term, the schedule does tighten up from Gameweek 31, though. The partnership would host United twice, in addition to home clashes with Liverpool, Everton and Tottenham over the final eight matches – something to consider when planning for the final few months, then.
Defence
West Ham
For the Hammers, the likes of Jussi Jaaskelainen, Joey O’Brien and new boy Razvan Rat look the main protagonists. While Allardyce has snapped up new keeper Adrian from Real Betis, the Fin is still expected to remain as first-choice but his appeal across the Fantasy games is price-dependant. Although he registered 11 clean sheets last term, Jaaskelainen’s propensity for picking up save points in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) helped accrue 144 points, joint-second for keepers. Starting last term at 4.5, he was a real budget favourite – a hike to 5.0 would be acceptable to most but 5.5 is likely to severely dent his prospects.
Thanks to a starting price of 4.0 and 123 point haul, O’Brien was the best value FPL defender of 2012/13 and a price rise is also on the cards here, with 5.0 the likely result. With Rat set to take his place on the left, O’Brien should vie with Guy Demel for game time on the right – his attacking potential certainly offers more than the Ivorian and could see him knock the site favourite down the Hammers’ pecking order.
From a Fantasy perspective, West Ham were a little difficult to predict when it came to clean sheets. Only six of last term’s 11 arrived in front of their own fans, though given that one of those arrived against City, they clearly are capable of nullifying any side at home – on the road, a Gameweek 32 goalless draw at Liverpool was their most impressive backline performance.
Southampton
Having conceded 60 goals over the previous season, the Saints’ defensive assets will surely remain in the budget bracket. Analysing their results a little closer, though, there’s reason for optimism at St Mary’s – as the players became accustomed to Mauricio Pochettino’s high pressing game towards the end of last term, they shipped just nine goals in the last 10 fixtures. The Argentine guided his side to four clean sheets in 16 matches, though after a goalless home draw with Everton on his debut at the helm, Pochettino’s defensive record was more impressive on the road, with just two goals conceded in the last five away matches.
The installation of new boy Dejan Lovren will add further stability to the Southampton backline, though there’s a fear that the Croatian’s big-money move could convince some Fantasy games to price him higher than his team mates. In all likelihood, though, a cost of 4.5 seems realistic but with Nathaniel Clyne and Luke Shaw pushing on from the full-back areas, Lovren’s appeal may be somewhat diminished. Clyne will be hoping to improve upon last term’s goal and three assists, while Shaw now seems nailed-on at left-back ahead of Danny Fox and may be set to step up after establishing himself as a regular.
Between the sticks, Artur Boruc seems to be Pochettino’s preferred choice, starting all but one of Southampton’s matches since the dismissal of Nigel Adkins last January – again, a 4.5 price looks likely but if Jaaskelainen comes in at 5.5, may are likely to baulk at the idea of spending 10.0 for a pair of keepers.
Attacking Options
The Main Men
Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan are likely to remain the Hammers’ chief goal threats but with a mere 11 strikes away from home all season, West Ham were the poorest of any side on their travels. Trips to Newcastle, Southampton and Hull in the opening six offer Allardyce’s side the chance to remedy their abysmal form on the road but with both likely to come in around the 7.5 to 8.0 mark, they’ll be a little too pricey to bench. Carroll’s home form towards the end of the season offers plenty promise, though; he produced attacking returns in six of the last seven in front of his own fans, racking up four goals and four assists in the process.
As mentioned in yesterday’s article, Rickie Lambert produced 98 points away from home compared to 89 at home, scoring on the road against the likes of City and Chelsea – despite climbing off the bench in both games. Considering he finished last season as the third highest scoring forward in FPL, a significant price hike looks on the cards – starting last term at 6.0, a jump to 8.5 or even 9.0 looks likely. The schedule still remains in his favour, though, and with trips to West Brom, Norwich and Stoke in his opening 10 fixtures, Lambert – with spot-kicks and a share of set-pieces – could still prove a canny acquisition.
Mid-Price and Budget Targets
In terms of potential rotation targets, Matt Jarvis could be an option for the Hammers. Subject of a recent Sleeper article, the Hammers winger created chances aplenty last season without being rewarded – a drop to 5.5 would heighten his appeal in light of Nolan’s imminent hike, though spot-kick taker Mark Noble is unlikely to rise beyond last term’s initial 5.0 and could be utilised as a cheap fifth midfielder.
Depending on budget, Gaston Ramirez and Adam Lallana could prove a viable midfield partner for either of those two – both began last term priced at 6.0 but, similar to Jarvis, there’s hope they may dip in price after disappointing seasons. Up front, Jay Rodriguez’s four goals and six assists in 14 starts under Pochettino suggest he could come to the fore this term and offer an alternative to Lambert up top; if he comes in around 6.0, the former Burnley man is another one to watch as a rotation option with a budget midfielder.
However, with the Saints currently courting names such as Roma’s Pablo Osvaldo, Celtic’s Victor Wanyama and ex-Chelsea winger Miroslav Stoch, Fantasy managers will be advised to keep their provisional plans flexible, whilst being mindful of the potential they offer in tandem with West Ham’s assets.
10 years, 10 months agoThere's been some fantastic insights and debate on here since the arrival of HC. So much so that even I, a "lurker" (I prefer to think of myself as more of an "absorber") of over 4 years feel like throwing my own musings out there as well.
How to combine form and fixtures?
The old form v fixtures debate has been discussed in detail here making for great reading but I haven't seen anyone else describe using the same approach as myself, perhaps in idea but not in method.
I like to keep a spreadsheet which has a ticker for each of my players. I use the ticker from here but then use my own judgement to simplify it into only three states; green, amber and red. Then I see a team table which shows at a glance a visual fixture rating for my squad each week. Very simply if a player has a run with too much red I plan to transfer them out before. As long as these planned exits mean that in each column there is no more than 3 red outfield players I know that in that week no transfers are "necessary".
How does form come into this? Planning weeks in advance only really takes in fixture difficulty as a factor but. Form is crucial....this is why I have the amber fixture rating. If a player has amber but good form going into a game week I consider the amber green, conversely with poor form and red. This stops me taking out a player who has a run of amber, red, amber, green, green if they are in good form. Treat those ambers as greens and bench for the red. If in that red week there are four others with red cells...do the same analysis of the coming weeks for those players too, taking their form into account.
This method is very easy to have as a constant guide with minimal effort and has helped me better prepare for when to take out certain players and which weeks to roll over a transfer as the following needs it much more.