With so many picking Mathieu Debuchy for their team (20.2% in the Fantasy Premier League game at the time of writing) because of his 5.5 price tag entry into the second most successful defence of last season, I thought it would be wise to take a look at Arsenal’s defensive success from last term and whether it can get any better or will prove hard to replicate.
STATISTICS
2013/14 – 11 clean sheets at home, six away.
Arsenal only lost one game in which the back five (Wojciech Szczęsny, Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker Laurent Koscielny, Kieran Gibbs) played the full 90 minutes. That was against Stoke. This back-five held that record from 2011 up until the Stoke game so thinking nothing has changed may prove costly.
Arsenal on 14 occasions let in one goal, meaning in 31 games they conceded just 14 goals. The other seven games tallied up 27 goals against, including defeats at Chelsea for six, Man City for six, Liverpool for five, Villa for three, Everton for three, Southampton’s 2-2 draw and Swansea’s 2-2 draw. There were 23 goals let in against top-five teams. To put that into perspective, Cardiff let in 22 against such opposition and they had the worse defence in the league. The heavy defeats against top-five teams were, it is worth noting, all away from home.
Arsenal’s Style
What Arsenal managed well was to force opposing teams to shoot from distance (50% of opponents shots were from outside the box). This was done by forcing attackers and wingers of opposing teams into the centre rather down the line. However, when faced with high-quality opposition away from home who had both good central players as well as fast, slick passing wingers, Arsenal were lacking. They seemed all too vulnerable on the counter.
These big away defeats against their title rivals were the low points of Arsenal’s season. However, the back-five were not playing for the full 90 minutes of those big defeats, which somewhat shows the significance of every single one of those players.
The Loss of Bacary Sagna
Sagna’s contribution to games in terms of helping out in attack sometimes went unnoticed. Sagna had a pivotal role when Arsenal employed a long ball from Szczęsny, which was mostly aimed at his side of the field, by winning most aerial battles. Arsenal’s centre-mid, right winger and Giroud would come close to win the second ball. He was an integral part of one of the ways many attacks would start off or how possession was retained. Debuchy looks likely to continue this pattern as he is good in the air. So, with slightly better personal defensive and attacking stats he is in that respect a good bet to continue the good defensive record Arsenal showed in 2013/14 and therefore reward the 20.2% of Fantasy managers that have chosen him. However, his pass rate is not as good as Sagna’s, which could worry some managers, especially in combination with the next point about Arsenal’s defensively minded midfielder Mikel Arteta.
Mikel Arteta’s Age
The other way attacks would start and possession was retained involved Arteta getting the ball off the back-four and dictating the tempo and direction of play. I have my doubts over Arteta’s quality and his form has declined. He is getting slower on and off the ball. So defensively he is not covering ground as fast and offensively he is more likely to be caught in possession. Given the Arsenal midfield situation, it seems unlikely Mathieu Flamini will start along side him and he is their only other genuine defensive midfielder.
So when Arsenal or Arteta are caught in possession, as he was in the Chelsea and Liverpool games, it will be dangerous for the Arsenal defence as there is no real cover. The three big defeats saw only Arteta deployed as a defensive midfielder. This should potentially worry Fantasy managers with a Arsenal defender. To me it seems only Alex Oxlade-Chamberlian and Jack Wilshere have the drive to get back, help the defense out and recover the ball, and I’m not sure of their game time. So a slightly misplaced pass by Debuchy or a slow reaction by Arteta could prove costly in terms of defensive Fantasy points.
For me, to beat Arsenal, the recipe is just snap at Arteta’s heels, or those of whoever the first centre-midfielder on the ball is. Try and deny him the opportunity to turn. This being showcased so evidently by Liverpool and Chelsea could possibly be a blessing in that Arsene Wenger might find ways to counteract it. The central midfield pairing will directly impact on clean sheets and goals against. I think someone needs to be brought in for that position.
A possible scenario is fewer clean sheets, but no heavy defeats. This may happen due to the fact that Wenger will more than likely play an attacking formation and midfield pairing of Arteta and Aaron Ramsey against weaker teams, with only Arteta dropping back to receive the ball off the back-four. But Wenger may give orders to both Ramsey and Arteta to drop back when receiving the ball off the back-four against the top teams to minimise the impact of pressure on Arteta. He may even play a second deep-lying midfielder, either Flamini or Wilshere. There are hints that Wilshere may be a more defensive-minded player this season, which if is the case I think will be a very positive move in terms of Fantasy points for the Arsenal defence. I believe he is a faster player, with the ability to ease the pressure when in tricky situations with his nifty footwork and cover ground more quickly. However, he may lack some experience and give into his naturally attacking mentality.
Conclusion
If no one is brought in as a central midfielder, given Arteta’s declining form, Arsenal will struggle to replicate the number of clean sheets. Fewer clean sheets less/no heavy defeats seems probable to me if Arteta is a starter.
