Opinion

This Much We Know – Gameweek 7

A fading Swede, a rejuvenated Brazilian Bobby, West Ham’s one man crusade and the rich array of Fantasy talent available at Stoke City. Bear with us – it’s the lessons learned from Gameweek 7…

Only stats can save Ibrahimovic…
He needed an end product against Stoke but, despite his clocking up another fistful of goal attempts, Ibrahimovic failed to find a way through.

Prior to the Potter’s failure, there was talk that he’d require a double-figure return to quell a fire sale over the international break.

Having blanked, those sales are now underway, with the Swede facing a potential 0.3 price drop by the time he takes to the pitch at Anfield in Gameweek 8.

The statistics offer a crumb of comfort – in fact, it’s almost a whole loaf.

With an effort on goal every 17.5 minutes, there’s only some fella down at the Etihad who can match Ibrahimovic for goal threat this season.

And yet, while we appear to trust Sergio Aguero to overcome his White Hart Lane blank and justify his lofty price tag, patience and belief in Zlatan seems to have worn thin.

Those who are holding can cling to the underlying statistics and refuse to believe that he can go on failing. They may yet have a case.

Nobody puts Bobby in the corner….
Unlike Ibrahimovic, Roberto Firmino managed to silence the doubters.

His 12-point return in South Wales provided an emphatic response to those quick to lower him down the Liverpool midfield pecking order.

Firmino’s importance to the Liverpool cause has always been there for all to see but erratic returns, alongside blossoming team-mates, raised a red flag.

Now we can settle on Firmino, for now at least – watching to see if he can maintain such levels and finally emerge as the key option amongst Klopp’s middle men.

We haven’t got Payet…I don’t think he understands….
Everybody can accuse West Ham of being a one-man team. Dimitri Payet is so celebrated by Hammers fans; they’re almost resigned to it themselves.

Saturday’s extraordinary goal against Middlesbrough highlighted that Payet is willing to take on the opposition on his own to attempt to rescue West Ham’s season.

With opponents now working out that if you put a tall bloke on Michail Antonio, you can cut off West Ham’s goals, Payet’s one-man mission is well-timed.

But such a crusade is not yet enough for us to take notice.

No Fantasy manager is getting carried away – Payet is set to enjoy a very slight rise in ownership but, such is the competition for midfield slots, he remains on the back burner.

Antonio, on the other hand, is already suffering from the volatile and fickle nature of this season’s market – he’s shed over 25,000 owners ahead of Gameweek 8 and a price drop beckons before deadline.

Shining Son is blinding us to Alli’s upturn….
We’re all loving Son Heung-min right now.

He’s got the lot – goals, chance creation, out of position prospects. What’s not to love?

Certainly, Son’s transfer traffic is busy – no player has earned more new owners ahead of Gameweek 8 so far, and numerous price rises are on the way before the next ball is kicked.

We can’t argue – Son shot up a few more levels in our midfield Watchlist: we’ve definitely bought in.

But, in Dele Alli, there is another.

Alli’s form appears to have piggybacked on Son – there’s a new spring in his step, a devil in his play. Suddenly Spurs look to have a cutting edge, and everyone is wondering how a fit-again Harry Kane will fit in.

We’ll take Grant now and worry about the money later…
With every little 0.1 helping to jump aboard speeding form bandwagons, Lee Grant is an unexpected gift.

Relieving Shay Given for the Gameweek 6 draw with West Brom, the loanee keeper was outstanding at Old Trafford on Sunday.

Grant has surely cemented his start while Jack Butland remains stricken, with Fantasy managers pondering short-term investment ahead of an obliging run for the Potters that might just promise the odd clean sheet.

Okay, so doubling with Pickford looks risky business and, eventually, we may be facing an embarrassing lack of riches in goal. But those extra funds now can go a long way, and if Butland’s recovery should hit the buffers, Grant’s shelf-life could even be extended.

And Stoke may even have more to offer…
It was pretty clear that Liverpool would come to regret selling Joe Allen.

We saw, during the summer, that there were elements to his game that failed to get the opportunity to surface at Anfield.

Allen has already flourished at Stoke, with Mark Hughes trusting him with a central role, pushed up behind the striker.

Two goals in two games – nobody is getting carried away – but at 4.8 the Allen option is another unexpected offering from the Potteries.

Shift Van Anholt and we’ll all love Moyes….
So David Moyes is toying with the idea of deploying Patrick van Aanholt as a wing-back, or even a winger.

Having seen the Dutchman defend, he then watched him come off the bench to score a precious equaliser from the wing against West Brom.

By piecing together those two sets of events, Moyes has reportedly started to ponder the idea of playing Van Aanholt as a winger.

Keep us posted David. We’re very interested.

Ranieri has given us fair warning….
We’ve gone right off Leicester City.

We can’t get rid of Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez fast enough, and we don’t really believe that Islam Slimani can change matters.

But, defensively, the Foxes have shown promise at the King Power and, with a few flashes of form, we may look again.

However, some chilling words from Claudio Ranieri has already doused those thoughts.

Apparently, he feels he needs to rotate more. That might just mean some more minutes for Ahmed Musa and Demarai Gray but probably not enough for us to even notice.

We miss Leicester City.

Ivanovic was also served notice…
In fact, he had about 18-months of supporters and pundits putting his performances under the microscope before, finally, he gets told to sit on the timber by Antonio Conte at Hull City.

We wondered if the Italian’s shuffle would see the Ivanovic option killed off for good and, while the Serb may well be revived, there’s no question that he faces a mighty battle to regain a starting role.

Particularly with Victor Moses in his way.

No, seriously, Victor had a cracking game and, while he’s playing at wing-back, there’s absolutely no chance I’ll be tempted to buy him.

Everyone’s a winner. Except for Branislav.

Pardew’s dressing up the Benteke air raid…
Alan Pardew is talking up how he’s re-built his Palace side – how they’ve progressed as a team.

Nobody can argue – the Eagles have become a very different proposition over the course of just three or four weeks. Nobody will relish playing Crystal Palace right now.

But, in truth, that’s probably got something to do with the fact that nobody really knows how to handle Christian Benteke and two big centre backs, coupled with an everlasting supply of crosses.

The new Palace are proving hugely effective and us Fantasy managers are left pondering just how much damage Benteke can inflict for his 7.6 price tag.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

1,836 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Hernadez is Hull's peno taker right? And he got dropped for the last game right?

    Earl Snod of Grass on penos if Hernadez not on the pitch right?

    1. The Kolarov Mane ⚔
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Apology accepted

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        You're welcome.....

    2. stachman
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Last peno was taken by Snoddy... I don't know if Hernandez was still on pitch back then, tho

      1. stachman
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Just checked... Hernandez was subbed 2 min before penalty

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Ah right cheers....did Snod score it? Any idea what his overall record is like?

          1. KING KOUNDER
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Snod did score.

            1. Jafooli
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Snod of penos then I reckon......

          2. stachman
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            As i recall it - he scored and quite with ease... No idea about overall record, tho

    3. Alnair
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Snodgrass may still take them tbh.

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Sweet 😀

  2. HammersFan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Hey guys, best baines replacement max 5.5?

    Thinking dann or soton defender.

    1. stachman
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      You sure you want to drop Baines?

      1. HammersFan
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah city next and everton aren't good for cleanies.

        Dann has crazy attacking stats or soton have home to Burnley.

        No other pressing issues

        1. stachman
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          It's not like they concede a lot... I believe Koeman will improve their def approach... Besides - I'll stick with Baines more cause of his offensive attributes

    2. KING KOUNDER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Vert , but he is 5.6 now.

    3. Podge
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I went for Curtis Davies, surely a few cleanies in their next 8

  3. Rossonero
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    I'm a bit late to the 343 vs 353 debate but i think some things wasn't mentioned there.

    It is mentioned that in top 25 scorers are 19 mids and only 6 forwards. There are plenty logical reasons for this.

    - most teams play with 5mids and 1 forward, so it is logical that in top 25 scorers will be more mids than forwards
    - some teams are atm playing without forward (Liverpool,Arsenal)
    - some teams got their forward late in trasfer window so they missed first few games (CPL,SWA)
    - double digit hauls - i think this should be 9pts or more because when forward scores and get 3BP he ends up on 9pts

    Yes, there are many mids that are doing great atm but imo biggest problem with them is that i don't see many of them keeping up for to long.
    And also the problem is to pick the right one, just see Liverpool mids, most people are just jumping from Cout, Firm,Lalana etc based on last week points.

    I'm not saying 352 is bad, i'm trying to say that it isn't so obvious. With forwards like Deeney or Benteke you get assurance of starts, 90mins every game and penalties and they are focal point of their teams attack. I don't see many (any?) mids in this price bracket that have those.

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Son
      Walcott
      Arnautovic
      Siggy
      Snoddy

      1. Rossonero
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Son and Wally are not 100% nailed, Stoke, Hull and Swanea are pretty bad this year. I can see Tekekrs and Deeney getting a hattrick in an easier fixuere, Son and Wally will be affected by return of Kane and Rambo/Giroud

        1. Nicks93
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Son cannot be affected when he is in such form and Iwobi loses his place when Giroud gets back not Walcott

          1. Rossonero
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Ofcourse both Son and Wally can't lose their place when in this form...but if they get 2 bad games and Spurs/Arsenal don't win in those games they could end up on bench because they have strong players waiting (Sissoko,Rambo). With Benteke/Deeney this is not the case, they can go on a run of 5 games without goal and they will still be playing.

        2. Emp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          lol at sone and wally not being nailed

          1. Rossonero
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            How can they be nailed?? Only nailed attacking players are Sanchez and Ozil for Arsenal and Kane (maybe Alli) for Spurs. All others can end up on bench if they hit bad form because there are players that can replace them

          2. Pegboy
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Depends on definition of nailed, but Rossonero is right. Every chance both will be dropped if they have two poor games or rested for upcoming games.

            But that's more of an argument in favour of 3-5-2 for me, as you just rotate to the next player. There are so many more options that you can choose between depending on form and fixtures. You can just leave Kun and £4.5m bench fodder up top, with only one position to rotate amongst the more limited striker options.

    2. COYS Down Under
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      108 goals scored by midfielders this year so far. 61 by forwards.In previous years its usually split close to evenly. So I don't buy into the whole "5 mids and 1 forward" argument, its a real shift this year towards midfielders scoring. For the moment.

      I can't see any reason not to go 3-5-2 until I see an under 7m striker actually start to return like Son/Walcott/Lallana/Antonio.

      1. Rossonero
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        The problem is that you are reffering to "last week points". Yes, Son is on a streak now, no reason not to have him in your team in a 3-4-3 formation. But all 4 of those players you mentioned could be afected very soon, by returning of the injured players that could see their team set up differently. When you get Tekers, you know that CPL will play crosses on his head and thats about it.

        1. COYS Down Under
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I don't disagree it will change up. But given midfielder form in the short term why not do 352.

          When I know Kane, Giroud, Carroll are back and firing they are a few transfers away.

          I went 352 on WC when Aguero came back. Hasn't failed me yet.

          1. Rossonero
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            I'm not arguing that 3-5-2 is bad. Just saying that it is not clear that 3-5-2 is better that 3-4-3. On last hot topic it looked like everyonr is on 3-5-2. When you read some posts it feels like in 3-4-3 you can't play Son or Wally, basicly that you are playing with no mids.

  4. Hy liverpool
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Which is better ?

    A. Snodgrass Lukaku Benteke (capoue)
    Or
    B. Payet Firmino Wilson (Diomande)

    1. Alnair
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B, Payet and Firmino are fixture proof.

    2. Shano23
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Neither. Hull will be this seasons Aston Villa. Id avoid

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        So b
        Diomande will be a bench fodder ?

    3. Sotamendi84
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      i am going for something similar to B

  5. Alnair
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Guys, thoughts on this?

    2FTs
    Heaton Pickford
    Valencia Williams Evans Byram Amat
    Sterling Firmino Antonio Snodgrass Capoue
    Aguero Ibra Lukaku

    Byram + Antonio + Ibra --> Bellerin + Sanchez + Wilson? Sanchez' rise yesterday priced me out of Arsenal defender + Deeney 🙁

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Good moves but I'd wait ... sanchez might not start .

  6. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    How many peno takers you currently got?

    I'm on Aguero, Defoe (if Borini not on the pitch) & maybe Baines. And hopefully Snod every so often...so say 2 1/2

    Need more peno takers.....

    1. KING KOUNDER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Son ?

    2. BB-8
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Kun only. Possibly Son and Lukaku.

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      If WCed would be 2
      If not 4

    4. Alnair
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Aguero, Lukaku, Wilson/Ibra and Snodgrass.

      1. PvA
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Think Hernandez is the pen taker when on the pitch

    5. John t penguin
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      surely moyes wouldn't let borini take a pen over defoe. the had to rename it stadium of half lights since they bought him

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        😀

    6. PvA
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Deeney
      Lukaku (?)
      Aguero

    7. rocky7st
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Thinking Milner, Deeney to go with Aguero. Had Baines but ditching

    8. Pirlø's Pen
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Kun, Lukaku & Son maybes.

  7. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Any news on the Lallana injury please???

  8. Thomas Magnum
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Please pick one
    A) Eriksen
    B) Alli

    1. BB-8
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. KING KOUNDER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Alli

    4. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Why not Son?

    5. Thomas Magnum
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers everyone

    6. Mr-Inbetween
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      C) Son

    7. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Choose Son.

      Eriksen and Alli are both slightly deeper than last year. Also, Eriksen isn't on all the setpieces anymore.

  9. BB-8
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Rose or Mustafi?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Rose imo ..

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Rose, more fun

      1. BB-8
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        More fun for sure. But Mustafi has the fixtures

        1. Thomas Magnum
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Call it a good day but if you keep a cleanie against City you have to feel confident you can do it against anyone.

          1. BB-8
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Touché..

    3. Teddy Brewski
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Monreal?

      1. BB-8
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Mustafi more of a threat BPS magnet..

    4. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Mustafi fof fixtures

    5. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Mustafi

  10. PvA
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Just did a stat comparison between Sterling and Antonio... should I be worried?

    1. KING KOUNDER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling will get points, he plays a attacking role in a very good attacking team.

      1. KING KOUNDER
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Are you worried about Antonio ? 🙁

        1. PvA
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah, Anotnio looking like a beast

    2. Worzel Gummidge
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Just pick the higher % owned player. Who cares about points.

        1. PvA
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Good one

        2. Podge
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          🙂

    3. Vintervilan
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      What's worth a -4

      A: Ibrahimovic -> Costa
      B: Blind -> Liverpool defender

      oooor

      C: Negredo -> Diomande, to clear up some cash so that I can eventually trade Barry for a liverpool mid?

    4. Thomas Magnum
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      About to WC who are some players I should bring in that are about to rise?
      Son Sanchez Spurs/Arsenal defence am I missing anyone?

      1. KING KOUNDER
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Fplstatistics sir.

      2. Mr-Inbetween
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Son just had a rise on Sunday night, and Sanchez just last night i believe

      3. Swanremainsthesame
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        The time to catch price rises is the evening after the first game.
        That's when carry overs tip some upwards plus defenders who scored their first goal in 3 years and mids no-one heard with 3 Baps get bought by the masses.

    5. Whits
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Do we think Janssen will start the next game away to WBA or be on the bench again? I brought him in two weeks ago as a gamble and it backfired!

      1. Alnair
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Even if he plays he will probably blank. I've watched him and he does not make the right kind of runs for a striker.

      2. Worzel Gummidge
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Probably Son I would imagine as he wont want to break up a winning team.

          1. Worzel Gummidge
              7 years, 6 months ago

              So he will be benched IMO.

          2. Pegboy
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Get rid. Not worth the hassle. Maybe a 30% chance he might start, but he doesn't look like scoring anyway.

        • Sánchez
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Best option to fill in the blanks

          Sanchez Walcott ______ ______ Firmino
          Aguero Deeney ______

          A) Son Mata Diomande (352)
          B) Son Fletcher Benteke (343)
          C) Capoue Fer Lukaku (343 with rotating mids)

          1. Hy liverpool
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Son Coutinho Diomande ?

            1. Sánchez
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Can't afford

              1. Hy liverpool
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                B then

          2. Pirlø's Pen
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            B

          3. AA33
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Son Snodgrass Austin?

          4. FPL_Sponge
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            B

          5. Pegboy
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            B)

            Would have said A) if there was a better option than Mata.

          6. COYS Down Under
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            son Lallana Diomande

        • SpaceCadet
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Walker or Rose and why?

          1. Iceball
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            I have Walker but Rose might be even better if totally fit?

            1. Iceball
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              A little more attacking Rose aint he? Both good options

          2. Jakarta
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            As a spurs fan, Walker. Comparable attacking stats, but less injury prone.

          3. AA33
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Rose. His initial price of 6.0 compared to Walker's 5.5 gives you the reason

            1. Pegboy
              • 13 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              No it doesn't. FPL weirdly thought he was more likely to be rotated, but anyone who's seen Trippier play recently would know how ludicrous that is.

              Rose is was probably more attacking last year (7 assists to Walker's 3) , but Walker has been playing much better and further forward this year.

              I'd choose Walker, just, due to the better injury record. And the fact his understudy is worse.

        • Hy liverpool
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Another one ... Which is better

          A. Arnie/Siggy/Tadic +Lovren +Diomande (3-5-2)
          Or
          B. De roon +Clyne + Deeney (3-4-3)

        • Whits
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Son or Walcott?

          1. HurriKane
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Theo faces 3 sides in bottom 5 in next 3.

            Expect arsenal to score more. Saying that Son is a great option. planning to own both for next gw

            1. Hy liverpool
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Son may not start ?? Check Korea Fixtures !!

              1. Worzel Gummidge
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Yeah, 4 days isn't enough to recover!!!! Walcott is also away playing at the same time!!!

                • Sánchez
                  • 11 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Hmm. Good point

            2. Hy liverpool
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Check hot topics

            3. Worzel Gummidge
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Son has higher output and I dont fancy doubling up with Sanchez. Either way Son is the better pick IMO. Just need to look at his superior output so far.

            4. Mr-Inbetween
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Thoughts on Austin?
              I know he just blanked but he could easily have been on the score sheet with a couple of good chances missed...

            5. Do I Not Like Orange
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Any word on the Arnautovic injury?

              Thinking of swapping Mirallas (who was benched in the last game) to Arnautovic (who has good upcoming fixtures and is nailed) in a draft league. Any reason why I shouldn't do this if he's fit?

            6. Slumdog-Mignolet
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Any recommendations on what to do with this lot? Bolasie out my main concern, benching for Capoue currently

              Pickford, Foster
              Vertonghen, Koscielny, Evans, Collins, Amat
              Firmino, Sanchez, Antonio, Capoue, Bolasie
              Bentke, Costa Aguero

            7. Captain pick strategy
              Net Gains
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              One tip I'd like to share on choosing captains. I've been using it this season and last and I've found that it has something like a 90% probability that you will choose someone who doesn't blank and greater than 70% probability that you will choose the best player in your team...

              Take all of your midfielders and strikers (7 if, like me, you normally play 3-4-3) and make the following columns:

              - Total points scored so far per minute
              - Total points scored per minute at Home/Away (depending on fixture)
              - Average points scored Home/Away in last 3
              - % involvement in team goals scored overall (ie. goals or assists)
              - Average number of team goals scored per Home/Away match in last 3
              - Average number of opposition goals conceded per Away/Home match in last 3
              - Number of games where they did not blank

              Captain the player who wins the most categories. If you have a tie (eg. 2-2), go with the player who scored the most over the past 2 weeks. If that's still a tie, favour a midfielder.

              Don't rule anyone in midfield or attack out. This got me a ton of points for Capoue when everyone was saying his previous form was just a fluke.

              As the season goes on, the stats will make it even more likely you will succeed. Obviously, it can be the difference between getting 4 points or 24 points so week in, week out it should really help.

              Hope that helps. Feel free to ask away...

              1. PvA
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Did you captain Capoue?

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  In GW4 yes. Got kinda lucky picking him pre-season because I saw his form in the friendlies and was really surprised it carried into August but now there's no looking back! (except for in a few weeks when his price rises even further and I sell him for a cheaper version of himself lol!)

                  The trick is to realise that Capoue is a concept, not a player. There is always a cheap midfielder performing really well for a few weeks. When that changes, you need to change too.

                  1. The Mighty One
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Thanks, Net Gains. This idea of Capoue being a concept rather than a player is brilliant. One of the single best things I’ve seen written here in a long while. Too often we let bias into this game, along with a good amount of spite. I sat Capoue for 5 weeks and then was “forced” to start him in GW 6. Cold analysis of form and statistics is what is needed…I’m usually good at preventing myself from being tainted by my like or dislike of the players on the teams that I love or hate in real life (except for Costa, I will never have him again as that is the moment when he will finally get his red), but I have to remember why Capoue was in my team in the first place. Thanks for posting that Captaincy calc.

                2. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  I'm @FPLgains on Twitter btw

              2. Hy liverpool
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Good strategy .. cheers
                Going with my gut is my strategy 😀

              3. Jafooli
                • 12 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Great post......

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Thanks Jaf mate 🙂

              4. Podge
                • 13 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Can you come on every friday and work this out for me please 🙂

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  To be honest, yes! I enjoy the maths and just genuinely want us all to do really well!!!

                  1. Jafooli
                    • 12 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Bookmarked......can you start by working out my captain for GW8 based on squad on last page 😀

                    Unlikely to change any of front eight 😉

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Sure mate. Give me a little while as am also doing something else but I promise to reply to this in the next hour with the answer and my working out.

                      1. Jafooli
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        Cool, cheers fella 😀

                        1. Net Gains
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          lol, not a fella 😉

                          answers on their way soon...

                          1. Jafooli
                            • 12 Years
                            7 years, 6 months ago

                            😮 😛

                            1. Net Gains
                              • 7 Years
                              7 years, 6 months ago

                              yeah just a geeky football-loving fan (single btw!!!!!!!)

                              1. Net Gains
                                • 7 Years
                                7 years, 6 months ago

                                OK so... here goes...

                                The stats show you should captain Sterling and vice-captain Sanchez.

                                Both are clear outliers in terms of their potential score. I would forecast that City and Arsenal will each score 2 goals. Sterling's home form is alarming with an average of 11 points per match over 3 games now. If it looks like he'll be fit, I'd go with him just slightly over Sanchez.

                                If he's not fit and Sanchez is rested, Aguero is your man.

                                1. Jafooli
                                  • 12 Years
                                  7 years, 6 months ago

                                  Many thanks Net Gains.....well at least that clarifies that I won't be selling Sterling now 😀

                                  Probably go for Aguero (c) as usual ........cheers great work

                                2. Net Gains
                                  • 7 Years
                                  7 years, 6 months ago

                                  You're welcome 🙂

                                3. MK90
                                  • 7 Years
                                  7 years, 6 months ago

                                  This whole thread is gold, thanks NG!

                                  I assume this reply above is valid to most teams on here too.

              5. Energetics
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                I found this really interesting!

                I was sure my captain choice this week would be between Sanchez and Aguero. I had been siding with Sanchez, and had even considered VC on Walcott in the unlikely event Sanchez didn't play.

                Going by this criteria though the clear winner in my team is Sterling! Unsure if I have the balls to go with him over the big two (especially as he is flagged, though I expect him to play) but certainly food for thought!

                Great work!

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Wow thanks so much Energetic, that's really kind!
                  Feel free to let me know if you go with Sterling so I know if u have big balls lol 😉

                  1. Energetics
                    • 9 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    My last couple weeks have been poor so on second thought, I'm thinking why not! Will reply under here how my week goes!

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Awesome!!!!!! (l) u already!!!!!!

                      1. Net Gains
                        • 7 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        lol that was meanst to say ♥

              6. Ghost10
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Really good post, will definitely use this in future. Just out of interest, what is your current rank and history in the game?

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Thanks! Current rank is 3.7k. I've played for a few years, never finishing better than 20k but never worse than 50k. I'm a data analysis postgrad student and I love figures! That sounds really serious lol, I also like fun 😉 Feel free to keep in touch 🙂

                  1. Ghost10
                    • 7 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    That's really great and thanks so much for taking the time to share your workings with us all. My best finish was 311, but that was in 2009 before the game got so complex haha. Best since then is top 15k and a couple top 30k's. Always looking for new ways to stay ahead though!

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Wowww sounds like I should be asking for ur advice!!! Any tips for me 😉

                      1. Ghost10
                        • 7 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        I honestly just go by instinct mostly - I've played football my whole life and coached for the past few years, so a lot of management in this game mirrors how you would "man-manage" real life players and the peaks and troughs they would generally go through. My biggest piece of advice would be to stay consistent with selection, and in particular to keep faith with quality players during their inevitable low periods. And then obviously be adaptable and decisive enough when a change is required.

              7. AA33
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Great post!

              8. Belalugozi78
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Very nice analysis.
                My clear winner is Son followed by Sterling and Sanchez. Because everyone plays international or is flagged like Sterling so probably I will end up with the one who plays for sure (most likely Aguero). If Son will be 100% sure he plays, I may try.

                I'm interested how many captains you chose right in those 7 weeks?

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Hey, so I started in GW3 so I have done it for 5 GWs so far. I haven't blanked and my big success was Capoue in GW4 when lots of teams didn't have him/benched him/didn't captain him.

                  Son is hugely exciting and I would definitely agree with you. Just think that while more than 90% of teams don't have him, you could be captaining someone who could get you 20 points! To have him, Sterling and Sanchez is looking like a must! Who's your 4th mid?

                  1. Belalugozi78
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    My mid is quite good in fact - Sanchez - Sterling- Son - Walcott - Antonio.

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Yeah that is a really great midfield! Do you just have two main strikers or do you bench a 5th mid? xx

                      1. Belalugozi78
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        I just decided to play 3-5-2 as I missed Lukaku when wildcarding and now he is too pricey and has tough fixtures imo . So I play with Aguero and Benteke and have some money to upgrade defense or Antonio to Liverpool midfielder in few weeks time.

                        1. Net Gains
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          Very smart move! That's exactly what I would have recommended. Go Antonio > Liverpool midfielder after this game.

                          1. Belalugozi78
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 9 Years
                            7 years, 6 months ago

                            Thanks.. I hope the plan works.

                            1. Net Gains
                              • 7 Years
                              7 years, 6 months ago

                              Mare sure u tell me 🙂

                              1. Belalugozi78
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • 9 Years
                                7 years, 6 months ago

                                I'll captain Son and definitely let you know how it worked. Really great job especially that it's a lot of researching and counting. I know something after I tried your formula 🙂

              9. FPL Virgin
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Crikey that seems like a lot of work! Can't I just read Jonty's captain article? 😉

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Lol u can and it's a great article so definitely do! I'll forgive ur lack of technique in light of ur name 😉 x x x

              10. RedLightning
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 13 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Sounds like an excellent system, but how soon in the season do you start using this method?

                What do you do for GW1, or when the team has played fewer than 3 Home/Away matches this season?

                1. RedLightning
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 13 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  ... NG, if 2 players come joint top of a category, do they get a point each, or just 0.5 points each?

                  I would imagine that the system would only start in GW3, since too many of the categories would be inapplicable before then.

                  1. Net Gains
                    • 7 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Great question RL, they get a point each but I have to admit to sometimes regarding one as beating the other if I came into the analysis with a bias in the first place!

                2. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Starts in GW3 and the great thing about it is that the longer u go on, the more it tells you. It becomes more meaningful as the season continues and can also tell you surprising things like who to bench or who to sell rather than just going on gut. You can even do it on players you don't have to see if they fit in with your best performing players.

                  1. RedLightning
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 13 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    According to your system, I should have captained Barkley(2) in GW3, Ibrahimovic(5) in GW4, Hazard(2) in GW5, Firmino(2) in GW6 and Aguero(2) in GW7.

                    Unfortunately, that would have been slightly worse than my actual captains: Aguero(2) in GW3, Hazard(1) in GW4, Hazard(2) in GW5, Aguero(13) in GW6 and Sanchez(3) in GW7. 🙁

                    Perhaps the system might work better later in the season when it will be based on a greater number of matches. For example, the system selected Firmino in GW6 because he had scored 15 points in his only previous home match.

                    Also, perhaps the model could be improved by giving the categories different weights, and perhaps combining some of them (e.g. multiplying % involvement in team goals by average number of team goals scored). And that's before we even consider the underlying stats which are so beloved by many FPL managers in these parts.

                    I think I prefer to keep it all a bit simpler by taking many of these factors or similar ones into account, but not applying any over-rigid algorithms or formulae to them.

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Fair enough, everyone has their own methods. And no, I would not have recommended picking Barkley or Ibra.

                      1. RedLightning
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • Has Moderation Rights
                        • 13 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        Your method didn't work for me over GWs 3-7, but that may be partly because some of the categories are based on less than 3 GWs' data in GWs 3-6.
                        Perhaps the method might be more successful in later GWs, but I am not convinced by your claims of a 90% probability of finding a captain who doesn't blank, a greater than 70% probability of finding the highest scoring player in the team for that GW, and a place in the top 10k by the end of the season.

                        I think you may have just got lucky in GWs 3-6 this season, despite the insufficient data.
                        Also, your system may have worked well for you last season when many template players performed consistently well and avoided injury, but not all seasons are like that. And how often did your captain outscore the popular choice?
                        Of course, it helps if you have the best players in your team to start with!

                        Your categories are all useful ones to consider, but they should not all be given equal weight, and some of them could be combined (for example, how about multiplying the Home/Away points scored per match by the % involvement and by the sum of the Home/Away team goals scored and the opposition's Away/Home team goals conceded?).

                        There are also other factors that your system does not allow for. These include the probability that the player will start, possible tiredness following a midweek match or long journey and late return from an international, injuries to other key players in the team or changes to the team formation, underlying stats such as shots in the box on target and big chances created, and the eye test.

                        1. RedLightning
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • Has Moderation Rights
                          • 13 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          ...Other factors might also include Captain Polls and Bookies odds (although the latter may not allow for assists, bonus points or that midfielders also get clean sheet points plus an extra point per goal scored).

              11. FredtheRed
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Hi NG - great topic.

                sorry if i'm asking a silly question but how do you find out all of these variables?

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Hey Fred - not a silly question at all. It's quite a labour-intensive process as you have to gather the data from the player stats and league table. I haven't found an easier way yet as I'm not a great data compiler, just data analyst lol!

                  1. FredtheRed
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Thanks - yes I thought it would be a bit laborious but nothing good comes without hard work I suppose.

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Or follow me and I can help 😉

                      @FPLgains

              12. Teddy Steddingham
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Love this so much.

                I'm now thinking of a way to extend to defenders to pick which I should play/bench each week. I imagine you are already on top of this though!

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Sure am! I never imagined I would get this many replies as I have so many tips and never post them. Do you think I should set up a Twitter for regular tips like this? Would there be any interest?

                  1. Spencer
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 12 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    How about submitting a community article? If people like it, it could turn into a regular thing.

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      I may well do that, thanks! Also you can follow https://twitter.com/FPLgains for my regular daily updates

                      1. Teddy Steddingham
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        I might be tempted back onto twitter for this

                        1. Net Gains
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          I'm very tempting 😉

              13. Samurai Blue
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Nice post. Will keep it in mind.

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Thanks. Just set up a Twitter account btw for FPL tips:

                  https://twitter.com/FPLgains

              14. Gotta Wijnaldum points
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Interesting...although you would have missed out on some monster hauls of Alexis and Aguero if you used this method last season

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Nope, generally didn't miss a single big haul from either. Why?

                  1. Gotta Wijnaldum points
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    eg Aguero's 25 pointer last season

                    1. Net Gains
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      I captained KDB that week, you're right. So I ended up with 30 from KDB and 25 from Aguero = 55. Most people ended up with 25 from Aguero and a few had him as captain so got 50. I recall almost everyone I know saying it was too early for KDB and plenty had gone off Aguero. Only the formula I was using said I had to have both in my team.

                      https://twitter.com/FPLgains

              15. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                With all due respect, only #s 4-6 have any real merit, and barely that..

                much better indicators are shots in the box, shots on target, shots conceded in the box, chances created, big chances created, etc.

                1. sinik
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  touches in the box too, is huge

                  1. Hakchak
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 13 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    What about Capoue over the first 5 GWs then? haha he wouldn't have got anywhere near the captaincy...

                    Playing devils advocate - i would generally agree with you Sinik - hence i went for Sanchez this weekend but was debating him / Luk / Firm or Cout

                    1. sinik
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Capoue is pretty much a decent case in point of why this 'analysis' has no founding 😉

                      1. Net Gains
                        • 7 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        Guys, read it carefully. It's why I DID choose Capoue as captain in GW4! You either don't understand the theory or Capoue's stats.

                        https://twitter.com/FPLgains

                        1. sinik
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          Yeah...your post is not complicated, it's just not accurate. You're just points chasing instead of looking at indicating factors of future performance.

                          When you started quoting percents, I was reminded of a certain Anchorman quote..

                          1. Net Gains
                            • 7 Years
                            7 years, 6 months ago

                            Of course I'm points chasing! Try it and let me know when you're in the top 3k 🙂

                            1. sinik
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              7 years, 6 months ago

                              It's GW7..like your 'statistical analysis' you're working with a short sample size and misattributing numbers to future potential.

                              Let me know when you're top 5k at the end of the season.

                              (psst and even that isn't super impressive if you ask me)

                              1. Net Gains
                                • 7 Years
                                7 years, 6 months ago

                                Fair enough, it's a game of opinions. Wish u well.

                  2. The Mighty One
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Watch it, Sinik, this is a family forum.

                    1. sinik
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      😀

                  3. Dino
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Touches in the box is a next to meaningless state that bears almost no correlation with goals scored.

                    1. sinik
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Oh dear.

                    2. sinik
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      why do you think so?

                      1. Dino
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        Just do a search in the members tables from last year and include goals scored and tib.

                        There is simply no correlation.

                        Some players get loads of touches in the box and shoot rarely while some get very few touches but have a shoot on sight policy.

                        If you can show me some correlation then I'll retract my statement but I don't think you will be able.

                      2. Dino
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        Here is a table from last season. As you can see there are loads with relatively few tib with decent goal tallies and loads with relatively high tib and very few goals.

                        1. Net Gains
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          You're right of course! Some people don't realise it and think that their very simple way of doing things is somehow complicated or clever. We just let them do what they want!

                2. LakhaneeFC
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  That would make Ibra the best captain option ALWAYS - didn't work out well though...

                  1. sinik
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Yeah it's almost like FPL is a heavily luck-based game where we make informed decisions using actual relevant data to limit the luck factor.

                    Go figure!

                    This is a poor set of metrics to judge on and it's going to lead many unwitting casuals astray.

                    #RIP

                    1. LakhaneeFC
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      I am one of the casuals who's trying to not be one - might take a few years 🙂

                      I agree with your view that the analysis doesn't cover all the important factors which COULD predict goalscoring potential, but even if it works for 3 weeks out of 5, i think it brings method to the madness

                      My go-to justification is: Wenger, a champion of big data/stat analysis, has managed to get his team wrong for a decade - i can try a few of these incomplete methods and still be in good company 🙂

                      1. sinik
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        You have member stats, I suggest you use them as much as you can..make yourself some tables that will autoupdate, you can copy/tweak mine if you'd like:

                        http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/14032/
                        http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/13461/
                        http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/11333/

                        Chances created
                        Shots in the box
                        Shots on target
                        Penalty area touches

                        are some of the prime stats for players..

                        shots in the box/shots conceded in the box/big chances conceded are some of the prime stats for teams

                        You could also take a look at xG models (expected goals) to get a better sense for how a team performed on the day, as sometimes the data tells another story than the scoreline (especially helpful when you can't catch a match or highlights)

                        1. LakhaneeFC
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 6 months ago

                          Thanks a lot! Will definitely spend a few hours on this before GW8

                          Still getting used to creating tables with the right criteria

                          1. sinik
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 10 Years
                            7 years, 6 months ago

                            welcome! enjoy

                            yeah I wished you could have more than 10 items 😉

              16. LakhaneeFC
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Superb analysis. With the number of expensive players firing this season, choosing the right guy is a real headache (and heartache on most occasions).

                I have both Sanchez and Aguero, but i think I am going to try out Sterling as per your analysis - let's hope it works out!

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Lol thanks - let me know https://twitter.com/FPLgains

              17. Del Griffith
                • 11 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Its good, but its not quite Carling

                Aguero (C)

                🙂

              18. ricardo_vaz
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Hi. I think you make some solid points, and giant kudos for captaining Capoue 😉

                I like that you want to make the captain choice as informed as possible, but it would seem that you're putting too much weight on past performance stats (not necessarily recent past) which aren't necessarily indicators of future performance. I think there's a lot to be gained by looking at underlying stats (shots in the box, shots on target, touches in the box, etc) to see if recent returns are justified or if future ones are to be expected.

                I'm not sure there was a stat-backed case for captaining Capoue on GW4, even the overall stats you used still had a very small sample size. He had something like 2 goals from 3 shots in 3 GWs, you could make a similar case for captaining Joe Allen next week.

                Don't get me wrong, I think your criteria, especially the ones that use recent events and the ones that take the opposition into account, are excellent ways to narrow down captaincy candidates, but then I'd need more detailed stats to make a conclusive case. And even then I doubt that you can get it right (i.e. captain the player who gets the biggest score) 70% of the time, but if you keep faithful to this way of choosing and keep a tally of the results it would be very interesting to analyse the results.

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Sure, there are many ways to choose and of course I also do look at underlying stats though it should be obvious to any thinking person that they are just as flawed, no less flawed in fact, when compared to past actual points/goals/involvement etc.

                  Anyway, it's a game for everyone and my idea is just something for people who usually use their gut if they are looking for something better 🙂

                  Those who want to try it for a year, as I have, will find themselves in the top 10k easily. Not too bad, really.

                  1. ricardo_vaz
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Absolutely, way better than what I've done 😛

                    And I agree that any isolated set of stats is flawed, in the sense that it does not allow us to predict the future with 100% certainty. There is a saying that is something like "there are small lies, there are big lies, and then there are statistics"! But I would argue that they are less flawed than using past points or goals, because they create a solid idea of "regression to the mean", i.e. understanding if a player has over/underperformed recently and is thus likely to do well/poorly in the future. Looking at goals/points stretching back to the beginning of the season makes it harder to see if a player has done better or worse than you'd have expected him to.

                    So you're saying you have used these criteria for the entirety of last season? Or you're doing it for this season? Either way, I'd be curious to see how successful these captain choices are, compared to the average ("gut feeling") choice, or to captaining Aguero every week, or to the top choice in the Captain poll here.

                    1. Teddy Steddingham
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Just one point to add here. I'd argue the average fpl points, % involvment and lack of blanks account for the 'underlying stats' to some degree. If a player has brilliant underlying stats, as the season goes on you'd expect them to be excelling in these categories despite, maybe getting no returns in the last few GWs. If they aren't excelling in these categories, do I actually want to captain them? No matter how good their underlying stats are, if they aren't scoring or assisting I don't want to captain them. Potentially this would make you miss some large haul outliers but, this method surely would also stop you getting 4 points from a captain (a harrowing experience).

              19. KingNidge
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Got a team link?

              20. AK ⭐
                • 11 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                I like the idea Net Gains. I am not entirely sure if 'FPL Points' really is the right metric for the analysis.

                Have a look at Milner, he is yet to score an open goal and has one of the worst goal threats in the Liverpool side, still he got 4 penalties and converted all 4 this season. If I decide it by your proposed metric, he would be very high on the list for captaincy shout for GW8, however we're only dependant on a FPL Midfielder who is playing as a Left Back that has penalties.

                Cheers for this though, I would use most of those factors with Shots in the Box, Shots on Target, Shot Accuracy, Big Chances created etc as Sinik pointed out above.

                1. RedLightning
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 13 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Liverpool could get a lot of penalties this season, like they did during Suarez's great season, which helped Gerrard scored to get over 200 points.

                  Milner is also a bargain price, so could be a very good midfield choice - I probably wouldn't want to captain him though.

                  1. AK ⭐
                    • 11 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    I think their fast paced attack bodes well for penalties and fouls. But how many would I be expecting through the course of the season? There's no stat of course to work out how many more penalties they would be getting, I wouldn't want to waste a spot in the midfield at the moment when there are at least 5 other players I'd be looking at in that area. Pool midfield is still a lottery.

              21. KDF
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Would it be better to give each a ranking score (best score gets 7, lowest 1) as a guy who is second highest in all categories would be a better pick than someone who is top in a few but nowhere near as good in others?

                Great work still, I think this with an element of judgement would be perfect because obviously fixtures are important.

              22. KISSES
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Son / Wally / Firmino / Sterling / Capoue
                Aguero / Lukaku / Benteke

                Am I right in saying Son wins this for next GW followed by Sterling?

              23. ★Kuntheman★
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Interesting technique, though I'm sure it takes a while to implicate. Few questions: 1) Do you think a 7 GW period is enough to establish a theme for the rest of the year wherein this techniques works? 2) Shouldn't outside factors like player injuries affect each of these statistical aspects (like goals scored, goals conceded: example being De Bruyne's absence affecting City's stats) 3) Will this be your tactic for the entirety of the season?

                Really interesting read. Fairly logical way to go about it too, but gut feel is always another one that works. 🙂

                1. Net Gains
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Thanks Kun!

                  1. 7 weeks is enough though it gets better each week. After 7 weeks, the method confirms the template players as being the ones to choose so why should we not trust it for captaincy?

                  2. Injuries affect some stats like the per minute ones but ultimately this method and the underlying stats that people use don't take into account injuries. You can mix and match my categories though and leave some out.

                  3. Yes definitely! It's why I'm doing well and I haven't blanked yet! Why would I stop?

                  I'm @fplgains by the way!

              24. John t penguin
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Great post
                Perhaps you could team up with someone like balders to develop an easier method for data collection.
                Would be interesting if you were able to take a selection of pesos teams and do a weekly article to let us know how they performed, you may have discovered fpl alchemy for all we know.
                I did a very basic analysis of points chasing theory last year and it proved that it wasn't as flawed a strategy as it is often portrayed on here.

              25. gary.tejakusuma
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                hi netgains nice post here despite some issues about sample size n all.

                maybe you can do some validity checks of your team last season from say gw 17 onwards n see how the different would that be if u have used ur method of captain pick...?

                do you see any pattern of players who just scored high points usually take a break of 1 or 2 blank gws before hitting another high points? this may be translated into your method by applying number of gw lags. should 2 gws are enough as a lag?

                you may convince the other members by having a statistical results upon this? say the F test upon 7 variables multiple regression?

                cheers man

              26. Gnu
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                How about linking to your team?
                Cheers.

                1. Fitzy.
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Pretty sure that ain't going to happen... 😉

              27. The Hindu Monkey
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                After four blanks. I'll try anything. Rank of 242k and pretty sure I would be top few k if I had any ability with captain choices!

              28. Dino
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                This is a novel idea and some of the criticism above from those addicted to stats is missing the point imo.

                I'd as this lady says this approach is working then it is probably due to the fact it takes account of form (recent score), away or home score (some "gut" captainers don't really account for this), team potential for goals and opposition potential to concede (again overlooked numbers wise by most gut cap peeps).

                I do think big chances created home/away by potential cap team and big chances conceded home/away would be a great addition to your formula and maybe some multiplying factor for the more important stats like recent form might help people understand it more. If you could add/multiply the numbers in some way to get a captain score showing which is best more people might trust it.

              29. Good Times
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Great job net gains! People with criticism can try compiling data themselves =)

                Probably going to join twitter just to follow you great read!

              30. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                This is one of the best posts I have seen on this site for years - who knows maybe ever!

                It seems simple yet efficient.
                But I know from various similar betting strategies I used to try and implement it takes A LOT of time effort and patience. Especially when if a person is not fond of maths like I am.

                But I do think that your strategy warrants a regular article on this site. Who you would pick and why. How your current team doing etc. Because even if people did not follow your picks a lot would be interested in how you fare with this during the season.

                It is one for the powers that be on this site should look into!

                1. Fitzy.
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  They could just link their team and it would be quite easy to follow how they are doing.

                  1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Yeah would be interesting to keep an eye on it. I am not sure I would have the patience to try the strategy myself (except in decisions where there is no clear decision on the captain and it is annoying me!)

                    1. Fitzy.
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 12 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      I doubt they are doing well at all actually, this is all about getting twitter followers for whatever reason.

                      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
                        • 14 Years
                        7 years, 6 months ago

                        Yeah fair point it is a bit suspicious that they do not link their team...
                        But the theory seems OK maybe it would be easier to narrow it down to three criteria that can easily be viewed instead cutting out the maths aspect!

            8. Jafooli
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              The Snod on Penos:

              Successful Career Penos: 7 (1 x 2009, 2 x 2011, 1 x 2012, 3 x 2016)
              Missed Career Penos: 2 (2009 & 2013)

              He's getting better 😎

              http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/robert-snodgrass/elfmetertore/spieler/22614/saison_id//wettbewerb_id/#tore

              1. PvA
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                What's the source? I thought Hernandez was Hull's pen taker

                If he is then Capoue > Snodgrass will be popular

                1. J0E
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  You are right, Hernandez is Hull's pen taker. Snodgrass is second choice. The Scot took one earlier this season but that was after Hernandez had been subbed.

                  1. Hy liverpool
                    • 10 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    I heard that hernanez only took them last year because snoddy wasn't on the pitch (or may be once)

                  2. Jafooli
                    • 12 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    But has Hernadez been dropped?

                    1. PvA
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      Yeah good point actually, Hernandez didn't start last game

                    2. JIM BOB
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 6 months ago

                      This

            9. SuperMario
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              For those of you on a WC.. im trying to figure out which defenders teams seem most likely for points in the medium term..

              Im filtering fixtures from now until year end and shocked at who rank BOTTOM for fixture difficulty.... EVE...

              STK/ HUL combo looks excellent with home fixtures up until the new year..

              Anybody any thoughts on potential combos etc.? I was considering bringing in the likes of Bravo/ Cech and 4.0 and just playing every week either..

              1. Alnair
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Have you seen Stoke play recently?

              2. Thomas Magnum
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                I was considering those two but then again Stoke and Hull...

              3. Sánchez
                • 11 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                I'm looking to do Bravo Pickford

                I want a defence I can keep long term too barring injuries. I've found this season my defence which hasn't changed at all does a good job with a few bigger priced regulars and then rotating cheapos.

                But more importantly, getting safe bets allowed me to focus transfers on attackers on form so got good hauls from Lukaku Antonio and Sterling with transfers.

                I'm looking at cover from City Arsenal and Liverpool just now with cheaper players elsewhere. 2x4.5 def and a 4.1

                I want a flexibility too so like the idea of an expensive option or 2 incase of injuries as it allows easy switch to another solid option. Before i had DDG Walker Azpi and Stones with Jaku Pieters and Mcaulay.

                I'm suspicious of Pool and City defensively but expect they'll come good with fixtures

                1. Podge
                  • 13 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  City have had great fixtures and just kept 1 CS

                2. SuperMario
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  **Many thanks for your detailed response Sanchez..
                  City, Liverpool and Arsenal are the 3 that seem best (fixture wise)..
                  I was considering a Tottenham defender but fixture wise they look tougher..

                  LIV: Lovren/ GK @ 4.9m
                  City: Stones/ Bravo @ 5 and 5.5m
                  Ars: Kos/ Cech @ 6.1 and 5.5m

                  Then 2 x 4.5m Defenders and a 4.1/4.0m..

            10. Valar(Keith)
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Anyone punting on C.Davies? 8 good fixtures and always a goal threat.

              1. Thomas Magnum
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Maybe not sure yet

              2. SuperMario
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                on the ticker they look epic for fixtures.. just hard to justify the outlay for a HUL defender..

              3. tets mcgee (Bachmann an Rob…
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                let me give u the best advice u will get all day. robertson save .5 and will be the defender to own... used to tear it up at dundee if im not mistaken.

            11. Energetics
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Which pair do you prefer? Moves won't be made until fitness is confirmed. Liverpool mid is to double with Firm.

              A. Lallana and Snodgrass
              B. Son and Milner

              1. Thomas Magnum
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                A

                1. Henry Hill
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  Both look good but I prefer B.

                  1. Alnair
                    • 7 Years
                    7 years, 6 months ago

                    Same.

            12. Thomas Magnum
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Do I WC this?
              Foster Jaku
              Baines Williams Friend Stones Amat
              Alli Cazorla Pereyra Antonio Marney
              Ibra Aguero Lukaku
              Or use 2 FT?

              1. HapHazard (H2)
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                I would if this was my team. 7 or 8 players need to be replaced.
                Also, Arsenal and Spurs defense is missing.

            13. boogle
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              1FT, 0.1 ITB and I have 5 flagged players but think I should be able to get away with just Shaw > Holebas, what do we think?

              Pickford*
              Shaw* McAuley Pieters
              Sanchez Sterling* Antonio Lallana*
              Aguero Lukaku Benteke

              Heaton Capoue Baines* Amat

              Thanks

              1. Thomas Magnum
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Yep do that

                1. boogle
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 6 months ago

                  cheers

            14. pundit of punts
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Early thoughts on gw 8 captaincy?

              1. BB-8
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Kun for sure

              2. PvA
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Sergio

              3. SpaceCadet
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                payet

              4. Hasselbaink Forever - Defoe…
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Tempted by Firmino but likely to wimp out and go with Kun

              5. Alnair
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Kun, Everton don't have the players to contain City like Spurs did.

              6. FF Dirtbag
                • 12 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Sanchez? Anyone? Swansea at home under a new manager...

              7. COYS Down Under
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Sánchez has it atm

            15. PvA
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Someone lend me their wildcard please

            16. PvA
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              All 3 big hitting captain choices blanked last GW:

              Aguero, Sanchez, Ibra

              Anyone remember the last time that happened?