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What the Bookies Say – Gameweek 8 Captaincy

Last season Your Mum’s Athletic took a look at bookies odds to see if they could be an aid in helping choosing your captain for the upcoming GW. But what if he tried to factor in form and fixture into the equation? Here’s his results in his own words.

Refining the Odds

First of all I took six popular captaincy options for the upcoming Gameweek and ranked them from 1-6 according to their likelihood to score, according to the bookies.

I then took the same players and appled the same 1-6 ranking in terms of fixtures, measured by how many goals and big chances their opponents have conceded over the last four league games.

Finally, I applied the same rankings over the same period to assess form, based on points per game, goals and assists over the last four league games that they have played.

Bookies Odds

Rank   Player      Odds

1.        Aguero      8/11

2.        Costa         5/6

3.        Sanchez    10/11

4.        Benteke    11/8

5.        Son            6/4

6.        Firmino     7/4

Fixtures

Rank         Player    Fixture      Goals Conceded      Big Chances Conceded

1.             Benteke  (WHU)                 12                                    10

2.             Sanchez  (swa)                     8                                     10

3.             Costa       (LEI)                     8                                     9

4.             Firmino  (MUN)                  7                                     6

5.             Son        (wba)                      5                                      6

6.             Aguero  (EVE)                     3                                      2

Form

Rank            Player         PPG         Goals      Assists

1.                   Son            10.75         4              2

2.                   Firmino      8.5            3              1

3.                   Costa          7.75          4              1

4.                   Aguero       7.5            4              0

5.                   Sanchez      7              3               1

6.                   Benteke     5.25         3               0

Results

Rank      Player     Odds     Fixture    Form     Total

1.            Costa        2             3              3            8

2.           Sanchez    3             2              5            10

3.           Son            5             5              1             11

4.           Aguero      1             6              4            11

5.           Benteke    4              1             6            11

6.           Firmino     6              4             2            12

Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Chelsea’s Diego Costa is the likeliest to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek.

Alexis Sanchez of Arsenal is close behind in second, while Spur’s Heung-Min Son, Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Christian Benteke all totaled the same amount on 11. I have placed Son higher up in the results as he tops the form list from the trio. It’s worth pointing out, using this method as a test last week, that Roberto Firmino was the runaway leader. If this proves popular, I will try and make this a weekly article.

J0E Podcaster and writer. Tweets stats and stuff via @FFScout_Joe Follow them on Twitter

63 Comments Post a Comment
  1. SportBilly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    This is a nice supplement to the captain's article, would be great if this was a regular weekly fixture. Would also be nice to team clean sheet bookies' odds.

  2. Irishraven
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Should i off load zlatan and lallana, to bring in sanchez and deeney. I have ageuro and lukaku up front? Would be costing 4pts for move

    1. UnitedWeStand
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      mos def! with this week fixtures and upcoming. Zlat is tired now...imo

      1. Irishraven
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Done deal earlier....

        Starting Midfield looks like

        walcott sterling capouqe sanchez

        Upfront

        Lukaku deeney aguero

        Thoughts?!

  3. Scott10
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    anyone have suggestions for possible transfers?

    Foster(Pickford)
    Walker,Valencia,Holebas (amat,Kingsley)
    Sanchez,Firmino,Hazard,Antonio,Pereyra
    Aguero,Deeney(Diomande)

    thinking of hazard---->son and freeing up cash for bellerin

    1. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Hazard -> son def!
      Valencia -> Bellerin maybe?

  4. Lubic87
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A)
    Costa
    Coutinho
    Walcott
    Vertonghen
    Capoue

    B)
    Sanchez
    Lukaku
    Milner
    Evans
    Fletcher

    Worth weakening elsewhere to bring Sanchez in?

    1. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

  5. FantasyHero
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Who should I captain?
    My team:
    Foster
    Walker Monreal Evans
    Coutinho Cazorla Walcott Capoue
    Ibra Costa Lukaku

    So far I am going for Costa but not sure. Thoughts?

  6. Bunk Moreland
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Very good article. I'll go Sanchez (C) as I don't own Costa.

  7. jesperdalagersuri
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Great article, thanks for the work put in

  8. TheDazzler
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    As has already been pointed out, the bookies odds already account for form and fixtures.
    The ranking system you are using is clumsy as it doesn't necessarily account accurately for what may be wide differences in individual categories.
    Let's take a hypothetical.
    Imagine Aguero is at home to Hull but that he hasn't scored in 6 games. He'll score 1 for bookies odds, 1 for fixture but 6 for form.
    Imagine Costa is playing away at Southampton and has scored 6 in his last 6 games. Other contenders are away at Pool, away at Man Utd, away at Arsenal, away at Spurs. Costa scores 2 for bookies odds, 2 for for fixture and 1 for form.
    Costa will beat Aguero in this scenario, when it's clear he shouldn't. In this scenario bookies odds should be weighted much higher which your system doesn't allow.

    You are not accounting for the extra point mids get for scoring, or the extra point they get for keeping a clean sheet. There is no value attached to liklihood of obtaining BPS, which we know varies between players, so that needs to be factored in too. Also bookings/sendings off and expected playing time. Assists are more likely for some players than others, which also needs to be considered.

    The FFS points projections take into account all these things, including bookies odds, as far as I know. So basically your 'Captaincy - what the bookies say' is already being performed by this site at a much more sophisticated level.
    However I don't think their weightings are open to view so it's difficult to say if similar errors to the above process exist.

  9. Kala Balla
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    SUPERB ANALYSIS AND a GREAT ARTICLE!!! I went with Costa, influenced by this article and the result is awesome 18 points return!!! This is in comparison to my other option Aguero and -2 points!!! Thanks to Jonty keep up this and make it a weekly article mate you are great!!!