The New Manager Effect

FPL GW28 Scout Picks - Final Selection

Kelleher

van Dijk
O’Reilly
Hill

Wilson
Bruno Fernandes
Rayan
Mbeumo

Haaland
Ekitiké
Thiago

Darlow
Thiaw
Dalot
Dango Ouattara

GW29 Chip Poll

Price Change Predictions

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Szoboszlai	LIV	6.8m	103.9%	Very Likely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	99.1%	Likely
Kroupi.Jr	BOU	4.7m	95.9%	Unlikely
Mainoo	MUN	4.6m	94.1%	Unlikely
Semenyo	MCI	8.1m	72.0%	Unlikely
A.Becker	LIV	5.4m	84.9%	Unlikely
Raúl	FUL	6.1m	82.0%	Unlikely
Thiago	BRE	7.1m	69.7%	Unlikely
Casemiro	MUN	5.6m	75.5%	Unlikely
Gabriel	ARS	7.1m	63.4%	Unlikely
Amad	MUN	6.2m	65.7%	Unlikely
Martinez	MUN	4.8m	65.0%	Unlikely
Wan-Bissaka	WHU	4.1m	61.6%	Unlikely
Adli	BOU	5.4m	62.0%	Unlikely
Anderson	NFO	5.4m	60.0%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	57.3%	Unlikely
Barry	EVE	5.7m	56.2%	Unlikely
Justin	LEE	3.9m	55.7%	Unlikely
Richards	CRY	4.4m	54.6%	Unlikely
O.Dango	BRE	5.9m	51.1%	Unlikely
Gordon	NEW	7.2m	53.5%	Unlikely
Aaronson	LEE	5.4m	52.1%	Unlikely
Lammens	MUN	5.0m	50.5%	Unlikely
Gravenberch	LIV	5.5m	49.4%	Unlikely
Igor Jesus	NFO	5.8m	50.9%	Unlikely
Madueke	ARS	6.8m	46.8%	Unlikely
Mac Allister	LIV	6.2m	40.4%	Unlikely
Rodon	LEE	3.9m	46.4%	Unlikely
Mbeumo	MUN	8.7m	41.6%	Unlikely
Hill	BOU	4.1m	42.9%	Unlikely
Nallo	LIV	3.7m	45.5%	Unlikely
Shaw	MUN	4.5m	44.6%	Unlikely
Diouf	WHU	4.0m	41.1%	Unlikely
Kayode	BRE	4.5m	42.0%	Unlikely
Ballard	SUN	4.6m	40.1%	Unlikely
Ødegaard	ARS	7.8m	40.5%	Unlikely
Alderete	SUN	4.1m	38.8%	Unlikely
Petrović	BOU	4.5m	38.1%	Unlikely
M.Fernandes	WHU	5.5m	38.3%	Unlikely
Van den Berg	BRE	4.5m	35.7%	Unlikely

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Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Tarkowski	EVE	5.7m	100.0%	Very Likely
Sarr	CRY	6.4m	95.5%	Maybe
Calvert-Lewin	LEE	5.8m	96.9%	Maybe
Roberts	BUR	4.4m	97.7%	Maybe
Zubimendi	ARS	5.3m	90.2%	Maybe
Gallagher	TOT	5.4m	82.0%	Unlikely
Kluivert	BOU	7.0m	91.9%	Unlikely
Angel	WOL	4.9m	77.5%	Unlikely
Mukiele	SUN	4.6m	86.2%	Unlikely
Wood	NFO	7.2m	91.6%	Unlikely
Trésor	BUR	4.4m	90.0%	Unlikely
Bajcetic	LIV	4.3m	91.1%	Unlikely
Chalobah	CHE	5.7m	84.4%	Unlikely
Poveda	SUN	4.8m	89.6%	Unlikely
Perri	LEE	4.5m	89.8%	Unlikely
D.Leon	MUN	4.2m	87.3%	Unlikely
Tchaouna	BUR	4.9m	84.1%	Unlikely
Byram	LEE	3.8m	85.3%	Unlikely
Carvalho	BRE	4.7m	86.0%	Unlikely
Sels	NFO	4.6m	84.9%	Unlikely
McGinn	AVL	5.4m	83.1%	Unlikely
Pablo	WHU	5.5m	81.7%	Unlikely
Ekdal	BUR	3.9m	82.3%	Unlikely
Rogers	AVL	7.7m	46.7%	Unlikely
Fredricson	MUN	3.8m	80.6%	Unlikely
Arrizabalaga	ARS	4.1m	79.3%	Unlikely
Gnonto	LEE	5.2m	79.6%	Unlikely
Cash	AVL	4.9m	72.2%	Unlikely
Benitez	CRY	4.0m	78.1%	Unlikely
Van de Ven	TOT	4.5m	75.8%	Unlikely
Soler	BOU	4.0m	74.6%	Unlikely
Bruun Larsen	BUR	5.3m	68.7%	Unlikely
Lacroix	CRY	5.1m	86.0%	Unlikely
Lewis-Skelly	ARS	5.1m	72.8%	Unlikely
Mayenda	SUN	5.2m	75.2%	Unlikely
Heaton	MUN	3.9m	70.9%	Unlikely
Weiss	BUR	4.3m	70.9%	Unlikely
Isak	LIV	10.3m	69.8%	Unlikely
Romero	TOT	5.0m	67.7%	Unlikely
Clarke	ARS	3.8m	67.4%	Unlikely

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FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Alisson	LIV	B, Vs, Rest
No Change	Kelleher	BRE	C, Vs
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C
No Change	Martinez	AVL	B, Vs
No Change	Petrovic	BOU	A
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	C, £

Last updated: 27 Feb, 2026 5:16pm

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	van Dijk	LIV	A, Vs
No Change	Gabriel Magalhães	ARS	B
No Change	Hill	BOU	A, £
Up	O’Reilly	MCI	A, OoP
No Change	Andersen	FUL	C, Vs
No Change	Muñoz	CRY	B
No Change	Kayode	BRE	C, Vs, Inj
No Change	Cash	AVL	C, Vs
Up	Ballard	SUN	B

Last updated: 27 Feb, 2026 5:22pm

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	A
No Change	Salah	LIV	B, Vs
No Change	Rogers	AVL	B, Vs
No Change	Semenyo	MCI	A
No Change	Wilson	FUL	C, Vs
No Change	Dango Ouattara	BRE	A, Vs
No Change	Ismaila Sarr	CRY	B
No Change	Rice	ARS	B
No Change	Rayan	BOU	B
No Change	Anderson	NFO	B, £

Last updated: 27 Feb, 2026 5:28pm

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A
No Change	Thiago	BRE	C, Vs
No Change	Ekitiké	LIV	B, Vs
No Change	Bowen	WHU	B
No Change	Kroupi	BOU	C, Rest, £
No Change	Calvert-Lewin	LEE	C

Last updated: 27 Feb, 2026 5:30pm

Community

8 January 2018 58 comments

FPL Virgin

So far there have been seven Premier League clubs that have parted company with their manager mid season – Everton, Leicester, West Ham, West Brom, Crystal Palace, Swansea and Stoke.

Apart from the Potters, all have a new man at the helm so I thought it would be good to find out how some of them have helped, or indeed hindered, their new sides’ chances of top flight survival and ability to deliver points to Fantasy managers.

Due to the high use of Members area statistics this article is only available to Members.

Note: As Paul Clement’s replacement Carlos Carvalhal has only been in charge for just two games at the time of writing, I have omitted Swansea from this article.

This content is restricted to Chief Scout Members. Click here to register and get access to industry-leading stats from Opta and StatsBomb including Defensive Contributions data, the Rate My Team tool, Points Projections, 150+ Member-only articles, exclusive Team Reveals, a customisable Season Ticker, two Transfer Planners... and more!

58 Comments Login to Post a Comment

J0E
8 years, 1 month ago
Thanks for this. Moyes looking like having made the biggest change so far in terms of fantasy potential in attack and defence - think that is largely because he inherited a really good team that was not performing. Arnautovic was just wasted under the previous management.

Really like the prospects of Tosun. Very keen on seeing how he does.
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1. Hotdogs for Tea
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Without a consideration of fixture difficulty (Everton/Koeman?), injuries or other factors, isnt it a mute point analysing whether the manager is the actually the primary driver for a change in performance, rather than a change in fixtures or a few players back from injury ?
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  1. J0E
    8 years, 1 month ago
    I can't comment for the author but my take on it is that for most of the managers above there has been a good spread of hard and easy games to look at for them and their predecessor.
    
    But yes there are obviously a raft of factors - also including bad run of luck with injuries etc.
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    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      8 years, 1 month ago
      Agreed, just think there should have been some consideration, at least as an aside. Analysis of reasons for Form / Results tend not to be such a binary issue, but nevertheless great information 🙂
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  2. the Penman
    8 years, 1 month ago
    I think there's a lot in this. Makes me wonder what Frank De Boer could have done with a fit Zaha up front.
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    1. Tazah
      8 years, 1 month ago
      Yes, good point, what I was saying at the start of the season.... Even palace lost to a Brighton B team tonight with a similar team de boer had
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  3. FPL Virgin
    8 years, 1 month ago
    Yep, as Jonty says .... Palace aside, there is a good spread of easy/hard home/away games to make some reasonable conclusions. With West Brom, for instance, the change in approach by Pardew, forcing them up the pitch, was like a red flashing light in the numbers and stats. And as for Everton they are clearly scarfing goals and attacking play to stop them leaking goals.
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    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      8 years, 1 month ago
      Yes, I don’t doubt it, but would have liked to have seen a disclaimer that the fixtures evened them selves out etc and are the same mix for the out going Manager as the incoming, as this seems to be the case 🙂
      
      It’s good to see a change in style pre/post manager expressed in stats, because we all have our own preconceptions regarding Big Sam etc
      
      Would have been also been good to know km covered by the players to understand if the teams are working harder for the new managers ?
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      1. FPL Virgin
        8 years, 1 month ago
        Fair point. Obviously the new manager can't replay the games the old manager played earlier in the season.
        
        I'm not sure if distance covered is available in the members area - I shall check!
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    2. GENERATION X
      8 years, 1 month ago
      Was thinking of Foster to DDG at some point and maybe a -4 next week is now on...unless I go from Elliott instead
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      1. FPL Virgin
        8 years, 1 month ago
        Could be a decent shout. West Brom's defensive stats are encouraging under a bespectacled Pardew.
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Miguel Sanchez
8 years, 1 month ago
Start one:

A) Depoitre (WHU)
B) Gross (wba)
C) Ogbonna (hud)
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  B!
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Gooner Kebab
8 years, 1 month ago
I enjoyed the TLDR verdicts at the bottom.
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Heh-heh, Lazy so-and-so! 😉
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Feyzi
8 years, 1 month ago
Very useful article. Many thanks.

As for Tosun, I will be very surprised if he can justify the price tag the way Rooney has done. Very surprised...
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  I'm not sure about the pedigree of the Turkish league either, but WGTA did a great article on Tosun to go alongside the scout report. They rated him 4 out of 5. The rate at which he fires off shots in the box was impressive and if he is on pens, that would be big. But as mentioned above, Everton need a big name to create chances. Someone like Ozil but cheaper!
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  1. Feyzi
    8 years, 1 month ago
    I think I am biased here a bit, because Turkish players have always found it difficult to settle in the UK (or elsewhere) and overall, their form significantly diminishes when they travel, possibly because of differences in, to put it mildly, culture and lifestyle... In that respect, Cenk Tosun will do much better than the likes of Hakan Unsal, Hakan Sukur, Emre Belozoglu, Tuncay Sanli who had much more conservative lifestyles and could never really adopt to the UK. The latter scored half goals (per game) of what he scored in Fenerbahce. Tugay Kerimoglu is a counter example, though, and Cenk Tosun's lifestyle is more Western so he will find it easier to adopt. But he will need time. I would be surprised if he just went on the pitch and scored this weekend!
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    1. FPL Virgin
      8 years, 1 month ago
      I think you could be right. Plus Big Sam is very good in the transfer market generally.
      
      I'm tempted to take a punt on him from the off.
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      1. Feyzi
        8 years, 1 month ago
        But I am very worried over the money. At 7.5 he has to deliver as much as Rooney has done over the season, in order to be a better option than him. That is a challenge.
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    2. teki0s
      8 years, 1 month ago
      Even though I agree with you concerning Turkish players, Tosun is born and raised in Germany where he also played a considerable amount of football. This puts him closer in terms of mindset with players like Ozil (Turkish descent). Of course, it's a wait and see situation but may provide a lot of value costing only 7.5m
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      1. Feyzi
        8 years, 1 month ago
        You are absolutely right but 7.5 is a very risky price anyway. I guess we will just need some 180 minutes or so to see if he can be worth the investment.
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  2. Tazah
    8 years, 1 month ago
    Siggy?
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    1. FPL Virgin
      8 years, 1 month ago
      ... Stardust?
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      1. Tazah
        8 years, 1 month ago
        Aas in you said they need a cheaper ozil - siggy
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        true_Jerry
        8 years, 1 month ago
        agreed
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        FPL Virgin
        8 years, 1 month ago
        Good shout.
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FPL Virgin
8 years, 1 month ago
Thank you so much for posting this, Jonty. After researching and writing this, I have a new found respect for what you, Paul and the guys go through each day in putting out all the content which we take for granted.
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1. true_Jerry
  8 years, 1 month ago
  its their job
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  1. FPL Virgin
    8 years, 1 month ago
    And it's really tough! Writing these stats heavy articles is draining.
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    1. true_Jerry
      8 years, 1 month ago
      fair play, should probably pay for membership and see if its worth it
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      1. FPL Virgin
        8 years, 1 month ago
        I was reluctant to pay for a membership at the start of last season. I thought the free articles was more than enough.
        
        This season, I was the second person in the queue to buy a new membership. I don't think you can do well without the stats.
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        Kun, Ayew Nigerian?
        8 years, 1 month ago
        I had my worst finish last season when I was a member. I was overwhelmed with the stats and made silly transfers/mistakes.
        
        I'm more mature more and will pay for membership next season by God's grace.
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        Fitzy.
        8 years, 1 month ago
        You can always pay for membership just to help the site without using the stats and other tools.
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        Kun, Ayew Nigerian?
        8 years, 1 month ago
        True. Thanks, buddy.
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        Licious Lizard (delete acc)
        8 years, 1 month ago
        I have been did that last year to support the site. Didn’t use any of the features.
        But come on, let’s be honest. It’s not a small site anymore, where you can pull that stuff. “Help the site”. Mark is doing videos, articles etc. for the Official Premier League + ads on the site, so I don’t think you can speak of it like a “small community” anymore.
        That being said, I respect Mark very much. He is finally getting to reap what he sowed with hours and hours put into this site.
        I would happily pay to use the site if needed, but can’t justify it when not using any of the features this year - also because I don’t want to pay full price now haha 😉
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        FPL Virgin
        8 years, 1 month ago
        It does cost a lot to employ decent, UK-based copywriters to put out content and articles on a daily basis. Speak to any SEO agency and they will charge a fortune for 2 to 4 good quality blog posts a day.
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        John t penguin
        8 years, 1 month ago
        I may pay for membership then if that is going to happen
        bantz
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        Licious Lizard (delete acc)
        8 years, 1 month ago
        Had my best season in the 1/4, where I wasn’t a member.
        So trying that again this year 🙂
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Ógie
8 years, 1 month ago
Nice article.
Well done Virgin.
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Thanks Ogmeister 🙂
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LosBlancos
8 years, 1 month ago
Good read.
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Cheers L.B.
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Defcons are for Kinnear
8 years, 1 month ago
Click bait for non members
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1. G-Whizz
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Aww didums...
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FP El Wonky
8 years, 1 month ago
Very nicely done Virgin.
Great article.
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Thank you 🙂
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G-Whizz
8 years, 1 month ago
Should have given you the credit in the article but it just says "Posted by". Didn't realise it was you FPL Virgin haven't got the time to give it a full read right now but will do so...
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Watch this first! You'll wet yourself with laughter 😀 https://en-gb.facebook.com/PeterKayClips/videos/1161513387232759
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  1. G-Whizz
    8 years, 1 month ago
    I got it lol cheers again 😆
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  2. G-Whizz
    8 years, 1 month ago
    Not gonna lie, that was quality 😀
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    1. FPL Virgin
      8 years, 1 month ago
      "It'll take me the commercial break to count it out."
      
      It's £40. What's it in, Jim, twos?!
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Forever In Our Shadow
8 years, 1 month ago
A good read Virg. Great work.
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Cheers D.P. Thanks for giving it a read.
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MTPockets
8 years, 1 month ago
Quite interesting Virg. Perhaps worth noting fixture difficulty mix. e.g. Everton and Leicester had tougher fixtures earlier, West Ham arguably easier earlier.
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Fair point. Thanks MTP.
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jia you
8 years, 1 month ago
Nice one, quite useful, well done Virg.
The one thing that caught my eye was the lack of creativity shown by EVE! Although this shouldnt come as a surprise under Big Sam, with Siggy & Rooney in the side they should be doing better! And what the hell ever happened to that Dutch guy - Klassen!
From my perspective, I'm happy having no EVE and to hold onto Lanzini for a while. Zaha interests me but their upcoming fixtures are just horrid all the way to GW33! They do however have a great run from 33-38!
Cheers
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1. FPL Virgin
  8 years, 1 month ago
  Thanks, friend.
  
  Yep, I was surprised by the drop off in chances created under Big Sam. I'm not sure if it is a long term trend or just temporary while he tightens up at the back.
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