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13 January 2018 5 comments
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Only Career Hall of Fame number one Peter Kouwenberg (aka My Pretty Pony) improved slightly on his Gameweek 20 rank amongst the top five managers as the other four all lost ground over the Blank and Double Gameweeks.

However, a small rise to 543,568 overall still leaves Peter clutching the wooden spoon. The Midas Touch has deserted him this season and he languishes 50 points behind fourth placed Graeme Sumner (aka Gregor).

Graeme slips to 174,537 overall and is yet to make the top 100k this year. This is a manager who has ended up in the top 1,000 in the three of the last four season and  it would be a huge surprise if he finished the campaign outside the top 100K.

Mark Sutherns (aka Mark) and Matthew Jones (aka Numb) both remain inside the top 50,000. While current Live Hall of Fame leader, Jay Egersdorff, continues to lead the way despite his ‘Kanexit’ debacle. He is currently 858th overall.

This article focuses on the moves and strategies employed by the five elite managers who grace the upper echelons of this site’s Career Hall of Fame. Between them these managers have achieved nine top 1,000 finishes in the past three seasons and have ended up in the top 10,000 a whopping 37 times over the course of their FPL careers.

To help out I have also deployed Fusen’s FPL Statistico tool to gain an extra insight into their thinking.

POINTS & RANK

ManagerPeterGraemeJayMatthewMark
GW21 points5847695651
GW22 points5655495358
Total points1,1921,2421,3721,2841,300
FPL rank543,568174,53785847,72026,980
FPL ID3629834517557497282370

The graph below shows the ranks of the Top Five managers over the 22 gameweeks so far. The vertical scale is from rank 1 to 3m. The distance between the ranks corresponds to the number of points separating them. For instance there are 240pts between rank 1 and rank 100k but only 107pts between 100k and 1m. The graph gives an idea of how difficult it is to move up the ranks as you near the summit

Rank1101001,00010,000100k1m2m3m
Points Difference to First05893132177240347409470

CAPTAIN

ManagerPeterGraemeJayMatthewMarkAve. (c) pointsAs % of score
GW21 (c)

Points

284282841831
GW22 (c) Points99666713
Total (c) Points28724333629029829123

Peter and Matthew benefited from Hazard’s no show in Gameweek 21, having originally had the player has their captain. Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah was promoted from vice-captain to captain, and rewarded them with 28 points.

No-one was rewarded for handing Harry Kane the armband in Double Gameweek 22 – his back-to-back hat-tricks even tempted Peter and Graeme to use their triple captain chips on the Spurs ace. We were told Kane had a cold but later found out the player had been on antibiotics heading into the Swansea encounter, meaning he only started the second of the Gameweek’s two matches.

So far this season nine different players have been handed the armband by our Top Five. Kane is the most popular having been chosen 48% of the time followed by Lukaku on 20%. Lukaku has proved the more reliable choice averaging a 14.2 point return when chosen as captain compared to Kane’s 10.6 points.

In the graphic below I’ve displayed this information for the five most popular captain picks.

Salah, Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling and Chelsea’s Eden Hazard complete the most popular captain picks so far. Salah has been chosen 10% of the time and averages 17.1 points as captain, Sterling has been chosen 6% of the time and Hazard 5%. Hazard averages 14.8 points, while Sterling averages an impressive 24.9 points.

TRANSFERS GAMEWEEKS 21 & 22

ManagerPeterGraemeJayMatthewMark
Players InKane, Arnautovic, Son, AdrianSon, Cresswell, OgbonnaKane, Eriksen, Arnautovic, MasuakuQuaner, Alli, Son, ArnautovicLingard, Morata, Son, Arnautovic
Players OutMorata, Hazard, Richarlison, FosterPogba, Mee, NaughtonBony, Hazard, De Bruyne, NaughtonCalvert-Lewin, Hazard, Coutinho, Loftus-CheekHazard, Calvert-Lewin, Sané, Richarlison

TRANSFER SUCCESS

ManagerPeterGraemeJayMatthewMarkAverage
GW21 & 22 Transfers434444
GW21 & 22 Points Hits848486
GW21 & 22 Immediate Points Gained from Transfers16100181512
Minus Points Hits86-81475

Jay made four transfers for the double gameweek, taking an eight point hit. It’s typical of Jay’s luck with transfers at the moment that both Chelsea’s Eden Hazard and Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne amassed 22 points between them in the week they were sold.

Kane continued his trolling of Jay – having scored two hat-tricks when not in his team, he then does precisely nothing when brought back in over the double gameweek. This contributed to Jay getting -8 in immediate transfer points after hits.

Mark continued his run of hits with slightly more success. In his Gameweek 21 pre-amble, he eloquently likened hits to Botox injections.

Little nips and tucks that help the squad worry lines vanish, until you suddenly realise that you’ve gone too far and can no longer crack a smile.

Mark has been able to crack a small smile with Manchester United’s Jessi Lingard proving an astute purchase. When describing what turned out to be his equally successful purchase of Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso in Gameweek 20 he gave an insight into his thinking:

I like to think of myself as a “maverick” Fantasy manager, but in reality, I’m just a scaredy cat. I live in dread of the big haul players and will bend my tactics to reduce the risk they present.

His judgement of which players will haul and which players won’t has been spot in the last three gameweeks, and has seen him move to second in the immediate transfer points table for the top five managers.

ManagerPeterGraemeJayMatthewMarkAverage
Total Transfers352527222827
Total Points Hits602028123230
Total Immediate Points Gained from Transfers67994575354
Minus Points Hits77917-52124
£ Value (GW22)103.4104.4104.5103.6105.1104.2
Total Benched Points12215614980163134

Caveats to this table:

  • It doesn’t reflect that Transfers aren’t made with only one fixture in mind
  • It doesn’t reflect when Patience in an underperforming player finally pays off
  • Points from newly transferred in players left on the bench are included.
  • Players transferred in and captained have their points counted double.

Matthew, despite gaining 14 points over the past two gameweeks, is still in negative transfer points for the season.

At the same stage last season the average points gained from immediate transfers after hits was 130, compared to 24 this season. For whatever reason it is proving much harder to time transfers correctly this year.

KANEXIT EXAMINED

Kanexit is a prime example of transfers going wrong this season. Here’s one last look back over the Kanexit period from Gameweeks 18 to 21, up until Kane’s re-introduction into Jay’s team in Double Gameweek 22.

TransferGW18GW19GW20GW21Total
Hennessey to De Gea (Speroni benched)-3-1-20-6
Loftus-Cheek to Richarlison-4-535-1
Groß to Silva/KdB-2-850-5
Kane to Bony0-16-15/231-30/38
Totals-9-30-9/176-54/62

(inc. 12 point hit)

In Gameweek 21 Crystal Palace miraculously drew 0-0 with Manchester City, not a result anyone anticipated, and it gave goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey 7 points. This matched the total from David de Gea following his clean sheet and save points against Southampton.

Over the four gameweeks of Kanexit, the Crystal Palace goalkeepers scored 6 more points than De Gea.

Next up for Jay was his decision to upgrade Crystal Palace’s Ruben Loftus-Cheek to Watford’s Richarlison. Despite an injury to the Chelsea loanee and an assist from Richarlison against Swansea in Gameweek 21, the Crystal Palace player still out scored the Brazilian by a point over the four gameweeks.

The third player upgrade to fail over Kanexit was selling Brighton’s Pascal Groß for a Manchester City midfielder. Neither David Silva nor Kevin de Bruyne were able to do better than the German over the four gameweeks.

Overall Kanexit cost Jay 54 points, or 62 if we consider that he probably would have captained Kane for his second hat-trick in Gameweek 20 against Southampton. Those extra 62 points would have given Jay a total of 1,434 and place him 20th overall.

As Jay explained in his January Strategy video he still stands by the principle of Kanexit, however much it still hurts him – if you have an expensive player and you are not going to captain him, then it’s fairly logical to ship him out and invest the money elsewhere in your squad.

It makes sense, it’s just that for the first time this season Jay’s judgement was out. Both on selling Kane and on the players he brought in as upgrades.

Focusing on getting the most out of his high value players is a tactic Jay shares with many other top managers including FPL legend and Live Hall of Fame number 3, Ville Ronka. Admittedly the Finn is unlikely to have taken the hits though.

If Jay can get over his Kanexit bump there’s every chance he could still be in with a shout of the FPL title. He remains ahead of other experienced managers in the race for the ultimate prize, this includes Ronka and Live Hall of Fame number 2 Grant Barclay (aka Jake Donahue). Although he is trailing Matt Kearney (aka Bøwstring the Carp), currently 28th overall, and Barney Le Fevre who is 355th, both managers have top 1,000 finishes in the past 5 seasons.

TEMPLATE – Gameweek 22

Players in Bold are in 3 teams or more

Speroni, AN Other

Christensen, Ogbonna, Otamendi, Alonso, Dunk

Salah, Sterling, Arnautovic, Son, AN Other

Kane, Firmino, Quaner / Calvert-Lewin

PLAYERS – Gameweek 22

Players in 5 teamsKane, Salah, Sterling, Speroni
Players in 4 teamsSon, Arnautovic, Christensen, Ogbonna
Players in 3 teamsFirmino, Otamendi
Magic Beans – Attacking players 6m and underQuaner x2, Calvert-Lewin x2, Crouch, Loftus-Cheek

AVERAGE COST PER PLAYER

*based on GW1 prices

Goalkeeper – £4.4m

Defender – £5.0m

Midfielder – £7.9m

Forward – £8.8m

In The Bank (ITB) – £1.9

FORMATION

ManagerPeterGraemeJayMatthewMark
GW21 Formation3-5-24-4-24-4-23-5-23-5-2
GW22 Formation4-3-34-3-33-4-34-4-24-4-2

The most popular formation over the two gameweeks was 4-4-2. It might be the most well known football formation but it is an unusual FPL choice, having only been used 9% of the time this season.

A formation of 3-4-3 is the most frequently used FPL set-up and has been chosen 52% of the time with 3-5-2 second most popular on 23%. 3-5-2 would have been the most popular formation in Gameweek 22 had it not been for the injury to Salah.

GAMEWEEK 23 FORECAST

It would appear, by my at times inaccurate reckoning, that Lingard has been brought in by Peter, Graeme, and Matthew ahead of Manchester United’s Monday evening encounter with Stoke. Mark is the only top five manager who already owned the Manchester United starlet.

While we await news of Jay’s latest transfer, the current Live Hall of Fame leader was back with plenty of advice for managers in his latest video, here are some of his key points:

Change brings opportunity, meaning try to take advantage of the January transfer window.

Patience is a virtue over this period, Jay points out that it is often worth investing 0.1 or 0.2 to wait for information. It’s better to hold onto transfers and potentially lose a little value in the transfer market. Jay cited the example of Demba Ba at Newcastle a few seasons back being adversely affected by the arrival of Papiss Cissé. How will players be affected by new arrivals this year?

He advises manager to keep their Wildcard unless they are having a nightmare.

He urged caution with Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero. Manchester City have seven games in the next 25 days (including cup matches), Jay isn’t sure he is going to play every Premier League game.

Everton’s new signing Cenk Tosun is very much on his watchlist – valued at £7.5m in FPL. Sam Allardyce is a brilliant judge of players, and with so few options under £10m, except for Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino and Leicester’s Jamie Vardy, Tosun could be a game changer if he hits the ground running.

For the second half of the season consider the human element – the mood or mind of a player. Look out for players with a point to prove, players who want to achieve something – perhaps a player who wants to impress a new manager, or earn a place in a World Cup squad.

He gave Jessi Lingard as an example of player who could be incentivised by trying to get into the World Cup squad. Alonso is another he mentioned – a player never capped by Spain, could the World Cup prove a carrot for Chelsea’s attacking wingback to maintain his form?

On his captain choice for the week he is likely to choose Kane. He hasn’t been bowled over by either Hazard or Morata at Chelsea and Leicester are no pushovers.

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside. Follow them on Twitter

5 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Thanks for posting.

    Lots to ponder, especially how Jay will look to turn things around post -Brexit.

  2. Goalosaurus
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    This must be the only time you'll see speroni on the same footing as kane, sterling, and salah.

  3. money face bandwagon
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    think i am trying tosun

  4. HVT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Fantastic article, thanks for taking the time to write up Top Marx!

  5. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    These articles are truly incredible. The amount of thought, analysis and effort that must go into them is staggering. Hats off to you.