When trying to decide on potential transfers, one factor that is sure to influence the decision is whether or not a player is in form. Darren Bent’s goal at Old Trafford last Sunday got me thinking about the issue of form. As in the case of Bent, good form can sometimes be enough to maintain a fantasy player’s points output, even when they face the trickiest of fixtures.

Despite this being a difficult hypothesis to test, I have completed some data analysis in an attempt to identify those players whose points output is best predicted by their recent form. In other words, which players are most effective at holding form…

To do this, I decided to look at the difference in players’ points per game (PPG) based on whether or not they did well in their previous Premier League start. Using 2007/08 and 2008/09 Premier League data, I focused on all forwards and midfielders. This is because goalkeepers and defenders don’t seem to be affected by form quite as much; with their points output influenced more by the strength of their fixtures.

I classed 4 or more points in their previous game as ‘In form’ and less than 4 points as ‘Not in form’. In order to make sure I had a reliable dataset, I only focused on players who had played at least 6 games in each category (previous analysis suggests that 6 games is a reasonable cut off point in order to get an idea of a player’s ability).

Here are the players who averaged at least 1 PPG more when ‘In form’:

Top of the tree, Adebayor averages a very healthy 2.7 points per game (PPG) more when in form. After recently notching an assist in his performance against Aston Villa, these stats would suggest that he will continue his high PPG at least for the next gameweek when City travel to Wigan. In second place, Rooney is perhaps an obvious finding. His hot streaks seem to occur regularly around October each season. After drawing a blank against Sunderland though, it might be another gameweek before we see output from the United man. The same applies to Gerrard, Defoe and Kuyt who also blanked in their last starts but according to the stats, have a high chance of maintaining form once they start scoring once more.

Next in the list is Carlton Cole, who has demonstrated strong form with 3 goals in his last 3 Premier League starts. The Hammers striker has a forthcoming double fixture in gameweek 11 to come and my findings certainly suggest that he could maintain his scoring form into those fixtures with Sunderland and Villa.

Further down the list, Crouch and Malouda present differentials for their next starts if you are willing to take the gamble on their selection. Very risky though. Last but not least, Ashley Young doesn’t look good for the next gameweek against Chelsea but if he eventually manages to show some form in the following game against Wolves, the stats show that he could hold onto it and could present a decent option for Villa’s double fixtures against Everton and West Ham in Gameweek 11.

There you go. Mull that lot over in your own time. As a sign off, please bear in mind that all the analysis I perform is based purely on the Fantasy Premier League game statistics, although the ideas can be applied to any game given some tweaking.