634x258 Members
3 August 2013 2533 comments
Mark Mark
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Grab the popcorn, it’s Saturday night at the movies. We conclude our Rate My Team preview set with an epic 14-minute, stat filled video outlining just how “Professor” Chris Atkinson’s statistical model works.

Admittedly, this is one for the hardcore number freaks but, even so, we hope this offers some insight into the workings behind the Projections and the Rate My Team tool and the effort we put in to maintain it.

If you missed parts one and two of this series, you can catch them here and here.

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Registered users can click here to upgrade their account.

New users can click here to sign up.

For further details on the benefits offered by our membership, view this page.

What is Rate My Team?
Rate My team is a statistical model built specifically to assess every player in the Premier League and return their expected values for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points in a given Gameweek. The system is a complex and thorough one which, of course, plots the probabilities of a player’s time on the pitch, their expected number of goals, assists, bonus points, yellow and red cards, clean sheets, own goals, goals conceded and saves. The strength of the opponent they are facing in a given Gameweek is also crucial; so every team has an attacking and defensive rating, every player a probability of playing a given match with injuries, suspensions and international absence factored in.

How Can It Help Me?
If you’re a member you can use the Rate My Team tool in a number of ways. Firstly, you can use it as a projections tool to predict what specific players will score, on average, over the next X number of Gameweeks. As you would have seen in our first movie, you have a players table that can be filtered by position or FPL cost and which can be extended to show any number of Gameweeks. You can also sort on “Value” to find those players projected to offer the best points per million return.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

  1. Ravishing Rick Rude
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Given that I don't any other have offensive cover as of yet for either team right now, would it be wiser to go with Silva or Walcott?

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    1. Wings Fan
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Walcott. Silva is less "nailed on" and may be affected by Spain's friendly

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      1. ManofKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        +1 - City looks a minefield of rotation

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        1. Ravishing Rick Rude
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          I figured as such, I was just very impressed by City's fixtures. I am a bit skeptical of the Dzeko bandwagon. Also, I planned on playing a 3-5-2, so Dzeko doesn't totally fit now. I guess I will hold with Walcott. Thanks, guys!

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    2. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Walcott for me.

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    3. smashy 'sophomore slum…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Wally all day, but I may try both myself.

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      1. Ravishing Rick Rude
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Right now I have Mirellas-Gerrard-Hazard-Walcott-Nolan. Nolan would be the switch-out if match-ups are messy or he is injured.

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  2. ManofKent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    First draft, any feedback welcome:

    Mig (Marshall)
    Coleman, Kosc, Turner (Clyne, Brayford)
    Mirallas, Oscar, Walcott, Michu (Thomas)
    Rvp, Anelka, Lukaku

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    1. FridayNightFail
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      It looks good to me. How much you got left? I'd maybe swap Benteke with Lukaku because at least you know Benteke will play both games even though his fixtures are tougher. Lukaku... impossible to know. Best scenario you have both, but if you can't afford both then I'd go Benteke.

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      1. ManofKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks - 0 left - yes neither Lukaku or Oscar are nailed on

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  3. .
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Anybody got The Official Deadzone League code?

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    1. Messimerized- Join My FPL L…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      234-401

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      1. .
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers Messimerized 🙂

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  4. isacki: full casual
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Everton will really regret those two away goals they gifted Real

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  5. Keepz_27
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    call me crazy but there are a few LFC players i want on my team.

    Migs (pretty much a 'set & forget' GK)
    Toure (he'll partner up with Agger with Skrtel move and @ 5.0 Bargain)
    Coutinho (amazing preseason, will be LFC's best this season)
    Aspas (only @ 7.0, great preseason looks likely to score 120+ points IMO with Goals/assists)

    anyone else agree??

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    1. smashy 'sophomore slum…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Don't forget Studge, he should benefit from Coutinho, et al, and with Suarez maybe leaving.

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      1. FridayNightFail
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        When he isn't in the physio's room...

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        1. Keepz_27
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          not sold on sturridge just yet, will score heaps once he's fit and firing.

          no preseason, and an injury cloud over his head. Stay away for now

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          1. smashy 'sophomore slum…
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 6 months ago

            Yeah I have to agree, just looking to later this season I guess. Liverpool have some massively intriguing fantasy prospects this season, seems the club might take a turn for the up.

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    2. FridayNightFail
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Agree with everything except Toure but only out of ignorance - how much game time is he going to get?

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      1. Wings Fan
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        As it stands, 90 mins per game. But they'll sign another centre back who will probably displace him before long

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      2. Keepz_27
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Toure is looking more likely to partner up with Agger, with Skrtel moving to Napoli on loan.
        who else is good enough to partner up with Agger??

        unless they bring in another CB.

        Papadopoulos, Alderweireld have been talked about... Aly Cissokho looks likely to go to LFC

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    3. isacki: full casual
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      FPL really killed Coutinho with the pricing this year. Is Aspas nailed on?

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah it was a bit of a nasty surprise that. But i reckon it might put enough people off to make Coutinho even more valuable. If he was even a million cheaper i suspect he'd be literally everywhere!!

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        1. Keepz_27
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          agreed, 9.0 for coutinho is a bit shock and i do agree with the fact If he was even a million cheaper he'd be a lock for every team.

          Is Aspas nailed on? TBH i think he's about 80% nailed on. great preseason.

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          1. isacki: full casual
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 6 months ago

            Nice, aren't we looking at possible Sturridge and Aspas competition for the CF position though? Just unsure how they're both going to fit in, even if Suarez leaves.

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        2. isacki: full casual
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          I don't know, FPL owners do overlook some gems - Mirallas is on 5.2% ownership despite a 7.5 pricetag - I think he easily could have flown under the radar the same way.

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          1. Keepz_27
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 6 months ago

            he's in my team right now, good preseason form.

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            1. isacki: full casual
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 6 months ago

              He's looked great since he arrived last season, just interrupted by injuries. Expecting spectacular things from him this year!

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      2. ManofKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Agreed - he was in my drafts at a realistic price. Don't think Aspas is nailed yet.

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        1. PAIRIDAEZAN
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          Aspas wears #9...

          LFC don't hand that number to any old fart.

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      3. Kenny Dogleash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Aspas showed glimpses of sheer brilliance at Anfield yesterday. I think he's certainly nailed on for at least the first six games. Of course, a lot will depend on the Costa situation. I've currently opted for Coutinho as Liverpool coverage, but Aspas isn't making it easy for me.

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          Cheers, good to hear he's got class. Definitely entering my thinking now.

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    4. PAIRIDAEZAN
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      I have Aspas but I probably won't touch another Scouse until later on in the season.

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    5. sac_1977
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      My team has mig, coutinho, sturridge amongst some pretty sweet other players

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      1. PAIRIDAEZAN
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Sturridge??

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        1. sac_1977
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          Yep, hoping he will be fit

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  6. Wings Fan
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    With Mirallas and Coleman subbed off now there's no point watching the last few mins.

    Night folks 🙂

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    1. isacki: full casual
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Night!

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  7. FridayNightFail
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Which is better (with same GKs Mig/Marshall and same defs Parr/Chester/Clyne or Shaw / Collins):

    Garrido
    Hazard / Coutinho / Mirallas / Snodgrass / Kim
    RvP / Benteke / Lambert and 0.5M in the bank

    or

    Mert
    Hazard / Coutinho / Walcott / Michu / Kim
    Benteke / Lukaku / Rodriguez and 2.5M in the bank?

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  8. tmccann
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts, guys...?

    Migs (Davis)
    Cole, Coleman, Collins (Clyne, Parr)
    Hazard, Walcott, Mirallas, Coutinho (Thomas)
    Lukaku, Benteke, Sturridge

    Cheers!

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    1. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Is Sturridge going to be fit in time?

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    2. FridayNightFail
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      I think it looks good. How much money do you have left? That's 4 DGW players who won't play in GW3, are you planning on taking any hits?

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    3. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Not convinced about Sturridge + Coutinho - would stick to the latter and try another forward.

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    4. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Lukaku is a classic risk/reward inclusion. I suspect Mourinho will shuffle the deck during DGW1.

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    5. Keepz_27
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      good team, only things i'm iffy about is Benteke & Sturridge.
      i know you brang Benteke in for DGW but TBH i dont think he's worth it.
      and Sturridge hasnt had a preseason.

      everything else is solid.

      we have a similar mid, except i dont have Walcott, i have Nolan (great fixture, should score heaps Cardiff City (H), Newcastle (A), Stoke City (H), Southampton (A), Everton (H), Hull City (A). I'll upgrade him to walcott after those games.)

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  9. Kenny Dogleash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Aspas or Lambert?

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    1. FridayNightFail
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Lambert.

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      1. Kenny Dogleash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        That's my current thinking. If I decide to dump Coutino, however, Aspas will probably become my Liverpool coverage.

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  10. MountainBeach
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts?Any changes?

    Mannone

    Luiz Collins Alcaraz

    Bale Hazard Walcott Snodd

    J rod Aguero Lukaku

    Shaw Chester Thomas Boruc

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    1. FridayNightFail
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Alcaraz is doubtful. Aguero... not in super form right now? The obvious would be to go Benteke at least for the DGW, but his fixtures are not very good. I have him right now but frankly I'm not convinced it's a good idea so...

      And of course there's Bale. Who probably won't be in England anymore. I'd try Michu who's in good form. Or Coutinho. And either Bony or Sturridge/Aspas if you pick Coutinho or Michu respectively.

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      1. MountainBeach
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah unsure about Alcaraz and unless Aguero is marked unfit, I reckon ill keep him. Cant see him having another poor season, especially under Pellegrini. Yeah Benteke, but ive got 3 chelsea players in already..itll be very hard to get em out when the blank arrives. Any suggestions on Alcaraz? Thanks

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        1. FridayNightFail
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          Mert or Kos if you can afford them/ Or Garrido maybe?

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    2. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Luiz not nailed, imo.

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  11. ReinaMan
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Not that I've posted for the last few hours but, Goodnight all

    http://i.imgur.com/flcZPSZ.gif

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    1. isacki: full casual
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Night Reinaman, long time.

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    2. Manani
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      impossibru!!

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  12. Tiki-Taka
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Think I have my ideal mids/forwards with this team but I have 1mil left in bank, shows where no Bale and RVP gets you. Question is should I use this money in the defence or just save it for any mid/forward alterations I make once the season starts?

    Cech / Lewis
    Koscielny / Toure / Collins / Chester / Ward
    Hazard / Silva / Walcott / Coutinho / Thomas
    Giroud / Dzeko / Lukaku

    May swap Dzeko for Berba/Lambert, I feel like I want to risk a City attacker given their fixtures though

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    1. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      I threw a fiver on Dzeko for the golden boot the other day. 33/1.

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    2. smashy 'sophomore slum…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      That midfield...mmm buddy. Go with your gut on Dzeko though, even if he is in form, there's not a good chance he'll get enough minutes to justify starting him, is there?

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  13. Kenny Dogleash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Current draft.

    Jussi (Boruc)

    Cole, Toure, Turner (Coleman, Parr)

    Hazard (c), Walcott, Coutinho, Tonev, (Snodgrass)
    Dzeko, Lambert, Giroud- who I'll dump for Soldado- when he comes online

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    1. Ravishing Rick Rude
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Tonev is an interesting way to go for the DGW. Although I don't have the highest hopes for Jussi, I think you look pretty solid right now--outside of individual player tinkering.

      ...and the wait for Soldado's price is a pain in the butt. I have a lot of time to procrastinate right now, and the 0.5 price swing could do wonders (probably not).

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      1. Kenny Dogleash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        I honestly think the jury is still out on Benteke, which maybe explains why no-one wanted to buy him and he was forced to crawl back into Paul Lambert's office, head bowed. Tonev's inclusion is more about the potential of a bargain basement out-of-position midfielder than the DGW.

        Not sure if he's nailed on though.

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  14. FridayNightFail
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Going crazy... better to go with Giroud and ditch Walcott to save money?

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    1. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Giroud is only making up the numbers until Soldado enters the building. I've got a maximum of 10.5m to spend on him, but I reckon he'll come in at a max of 9.5m.

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      1. FridayNightFail
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        RvP? No RVP?

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        1. Kenny Dogleash
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          Have you noticed how grey RVP is getting round the temples? Surely he's getting too old to produce another 250+ point season!!!

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          1. FridayNightFail
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 6 months ago

            😀 No, I didn't, and I'm not sure I'd go with that. Plus with Rooney leaving it seems like he'd take on even greater responsibilities. But I guess United is a bit of an unknown this year. Still, it's easier to ship him out than to bring him in...

            Frankly I'm completely stumped on the forwards situation. In my opinion there's no much to chose from. Benteke and Villa have shit fixtures, Lukaku's ain't much better and he's not even a guaranteed starter. Sturridge is always injured. RvP is RvP but he's really expensive... ???

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  15. What would Barton do?
    • 16 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    For the mert versus kos debate. Mert averages 50 passes a game at 91% completion rate, kos only averages 30.1 at 83%. So forget who is the bigger goal threat sure this should be the only thing that matters as your looking at least 1 point more per game with mert if not 3.

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    1. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Interesting analysis...

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    2. What would Barton do?
      • 16 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Wait it won't be that many more points but its bigger chance for bp's

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      1. FridayNightFail
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Still Koscielny scored today. Go for him!

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        1. What would Barton do?
          • 16 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          And mert got the assist, with defenders like that it is like flipping a coin who will score, might as well go for other ways of getting points off them

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          1. FridayNightFail
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 6 months ago

            How has Walcott been in pre-season?

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            1. Portuguese&Proud
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 6 months ago

              he assisted the assister in that goal 😉

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  16. FridayNightFail
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    How is this with some downgrades in midfield to accomodate RvP?
    Mig / marshall
    Kos or Mert / Shaw / Collins / Chester / Parr
    Coutinho / Oscar / Mirallas / Michu / Kim
    J-Rod / RvP / Giroud

    0 left in bank.

    I had Hazard but downgrading to Oscar allowed me to get RvP. But is Oscar guaranteed to play? May be too much of a gamble, maybe I should downgrade Michu instead?

    I don't think I'll have any hair left come GW1.

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  17. teej
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Which is better?

    a.
    Begovic (Marshall)
    Shawcross, Jagielka, Riether (Garrido, Brayford)
    Mata, Silva, Lennon, Wilshere (Routledge)
    RVP, Kone, Anelka

    or
    b.
    Begovic (Marshall)
    Shawcross, Distin/Williams, Riether (Garrido, Brayford)
    Mata, Silva, Miralles, Wilshere (Routledge)
    RVP, Lambert, Anelka

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    1. pit creature
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Why Jagielka/Distin over Coleman?

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      1. teej
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        No spectacular reason. They just looked to be better FPL performers.

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        1. pit creature
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          Go Coleman without a doubt. He's like Baines without the set pieces.

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  18. pit creature
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    I'm slightly drunk but...Jelavic anyone???

    3 goals in 90mins of pre season so far!!!

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    1. Pepereina Pizza
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Thought they sold him already! He's got 1 foot out the door, I believe.

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      1. pit creature
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Nonsense

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  19. billnats
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Silva or Coutinho for the 9m midfielder?

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    1. pit creature
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Michu ;D

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    2. Toonzie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      if you dont have dzeko, silva then

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      1. Toonzie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        countinho sry*

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    3. Kenny Dogleash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      cout

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  20. Pepereina Pizza
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Howdy, all. Long time lurker, first time RMT poster. I signed up this morning.

    Mignolet - Boruc
    Collins - Turner - Parr - (Clyne) - (Coleman)
    Hazard - Walcott - Snodgrass - Coutinho - (Thomas)
    RVP - Benteke - Anelka

    IMO:
    - my gk's are studs, not too eager to net just 0.5m to ditch Boruc, and 5.5m to get nailed-onto LFC defense is good value
    - Benteke will start every match and scores when he wants.
    - WestBrom will play as much Anelka as they can; he's old, but he's also a bargain that lets me keep the other front 6. I'll make room for even a Frenchman at that price.

    Now let me have it.

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    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Welcome Pepereina Pizza (like the name)

      Good solid team.

      The issues I see for GW1 are Clyne(injured), stuck playing Parr (rather play Coleman) & the lack of Chelsea DGW players.

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      1. Pepereina Pizza
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        thank you.
        Clyne swaps for Shaw easily, if he's not ready to play opening day.

        I'm trying to find a way to get Lambert in, and can't decide whether Mertesacker will provide clean sheets.

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  21. sdmdsdBazman
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Is pozuelo and brayford nailed on for their respective clubs?
    thanks.

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    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Only Brayford is.

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      1. sdmdsdBazman
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        what 4.5m midfielder would be nailed on and have a potential for an occasional goal/assist return?
        thomas?

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        1. Manani
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 6 months ago

          indeed

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  22. RASPUTIN.. Is back
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    I dreamed a dream

    Ddg
    Rama. Jones. Vidic. Haines

    Carsick. Fabz

    Runny. Kagz. Zaha

    Rvp.

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  23. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts?

    Boruc
    Cole Mertesacker Toure
    Mirallas Silva Walcott Hazard Coutinho
    Lukaku,Benteke.

    Subs:Davis,Chester,Brayford,Gayle.

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  24. TJ
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    2 GW only. Arteta or Paulinho?

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  25. El Berbossa - \\\"El b…
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Whos gambling on Lampard?

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    1. Manani
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      not worth it, I don't think he will play easy games, as he is old

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    2. sdmdsdBazman
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Anyone gambling on either Lampard or Oscar for DGW instead of Hazard? If so, what's your thinking behind it?
      I really need that extra money.

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  26. Manani
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    not fantasy football related, but can someone tell me what the computer's configuration should be if I want to watch movies with it, and maybe some fifa?

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  27. HellasLEAF
    • 16 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Dzeko might be one of the best bargains in the early offing here. He will start in the beginning and his value could shoot up quick. He is very capable of big points.

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    1. TJ
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      how can you be sure he'll start?

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  28. Ryan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    TM are you about? got a TWS offer for you

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    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Not sure I could be bothered with the game anymore but I'll be on TWS soon.

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 6 months ago

        Message me on Chatango like last time.

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  29. lilmessipran
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    hey guys finally managed to make a balanced team with rvp
    boruc mannone
    cashley collins toure(if pool dont sign anothert cb) shaw brayford
    mirallas haza wally nolan kim
    rvp lukaku jrod

    how does this look?any changes needed?

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  30. pit creature
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 6 months ago

    Are there any worthwhile 4.0m defenders??

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    1. Manani
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 6 months ago

      Brayford, Chester Parr

      Open Controls