Rate My Team and Projections Are Live – Preview Movie Part One

The Projections and Rate My Team tool were both updated in our Members Area on Friday morning. Our members can now get access to these areas via the menu bar and start putting both to use in their pre-season selections.

Over the course of the next few days we’re going to be focusing on both and, in particular, the Rate My Team tool. I’ve got together with its creator, Chris Atkinson, to create a three-part series which explains how the tool is used and provide an insight into is methods and the work that goes into producing the results on show.

The series begins today with the first movie previewing the Projections that are powered by Rate My Team, before moving to focus on the Player List feature with a demonstration on how this can be used. This will be followed by an insight into the Build My Team component and, finally, the series will be concluded with lengthy movie for the real stat buffs who are looking for insight on the mechanics behind the tool.

Fantasy Football Scout Memberships are now available for the pre-season price of £12.50.

Registered users can click here to upgrade their account.

New users can click here to sign up.

For further details on the benefits offered by our membership, view this page.

How do I use the Projections?
Crucially, these tables can be used as another opinion-former when comparing players. Every player is rated for goals, assists, clean sheets etc based on values created by the “Rate My Team” statistical model – the values returned for each player are the expected values in accordance with its calculations.

A good way of thinking about them is to consider them average values for each player. If the season was played out 500 times, the values you’ll find in these projection tables are the average that the model would expect the player to score.

One of the most useful aspects of the Projections is the value column. You can sort by this to find the best value (Points Per FPL Million) delivered by players in each position.

With tables for the season and the opening six Gameweeks, you can get a view on long-term and short-term returns and value.

What are these values based on?
The Rate My Team statistical model is a complex beast – it uses historical data stretching back a number of seasons and, of course, specific player and team data. When generating the player values the model looks at the specific fixture in each Gameweek, assessing the strength of both teams before calculating the likely team goals scored and how these goals will translate to specific player stats. The probability of a player taking part in the match is also a key ingredient. Factors such as rotation, injuries and suspensions. You’ll find out more on how Rate My Team works in the third movie due out in the next few days.

Why do the stats show decimal places?
The values returned by the model are not exact values – they are not figures that state what a player will score for a particular stat but a value which indicates their expected return. As such, the model can be more accurate when producing data with decimal places.

When will these Projections be updated?
It’s likely that we’ll update the projections every day (an update is imminent this evening) up until the season kick-off. As we get more data on likely first choice lineups and as the transfer market moves to cast doubt over starters, we will adapt and tweak the model accordingly.

The projections will also be updated throughout the season, providing a week by week view of what the model expects each player to score for the remaining Gameweeks to help guide your selections and transfers.