Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Fantasy: What the bookies’ odds say

This four-week footballing festival is getting closer and closer, with 51 matches set to take place in Germany. But what are the bookmaker odds on teams reaching the Euro 2024 knockout phase?

For the official Fantasy game, this is important because getting through the group usually involves a combination of goals scored and clean sheets – both things we’re targeting in players.

GROUP A

Germany – Scotland – Hungary – Switzerland
To QualifyTo Win Group
Germany91.3%63.6%
Switzerland64.0%13.7%
Hungary59.3%12.7%
Scotland57.7%9.9%

Hosts Germany will be hoping that an early victory can build a positivity that overcomes three consecutive big-stage disappointments. They begin at home to Scotland, who’ve not won at a major tournament since 1996.

In the last Euros, Hungary tried desperately to make it worse for the Germans. They twice took the lead in their final group game but Leon Goretzka saved many blushes. A rematch takes place on Matchday 2.

As for Switzerland, they’ve progressed to the next stage in each of the last five competitions.

GROUP B

Spain – Croatia – Italy – Albania
To QualifyTo Win Group
Spain87.2%50.2%
Italy78.4%28.3%
Croatia73.7%18.1%
Albania25.6%3.4%

Meanwhile, reigning champions Italy haven’t even participated in the latest two World Cups and only qualified automatically here because of some late luck with a questionable refereeing decision. They’re alongside Spain and Croatia in this ‘Group of Death’.

La Roja are aiming for a record fourth Henri Delaunay Trophy but the Vatreni are seeking revenge for defeats in Euro 2020 and the Nations League final, where Zlatko Dalic’s side once again went deep into a tournament. They came third in the 2022 World Cup and were 2018 runners-up.

The fourth nation is Albania, taking part in their second-ever major competition.

GROUP C

Slovenia – Denmark – Serbia – England
To QualifyTo Win Group
England92.2%64.6%
Denmark71.9%20.1%
Serbia62.5%10.0%
Slovenia40.4%5.3%

Based on attacking talent, England must be considered one of the favourites. Fantasy managers have the likes of Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden to pick from.

Last time, they denied Euro 92 winners Denmark from reaching the final, who were still recovering from the traumatic circumstances of Matchday 1.

Another reunion pits Serbia against Slovenia. Both are in their first Euros since 2000, where the then-Yugoslavia came from 3-0 down to salvage a Group C draw.

GROUP D

Poland – Netherlands – Austria – France
To QualifyTo Win Group
France90.2%56.8%
Netherlands78.4%23.9%
Austria57.5%11.2%
Poland42.6%8.1%

Overall favourites France have reached three of the last four major finals. Functional under Didier Deschamps, they beat the Netherlands in both recent qualifiers and will be confident of doing so again.

Although the Dutch failed to reach the 2016 and 2018 summer events, they have good memories of tournaments in Germany. World Cup runners-up in 1974, their only international trophy was won there at Euro 88. Then again, their talent pool doesn’t currently go far beyond a strong selection of centre-backs.

A serious knee injury stops David Alaba from playing for Austria but he’ll still be there as an off-field captain. Expectations are low for Poland after finishing third in a relatively straightforward qualifying group but you can never totally rule out a Robert Lewandowski team.

GROUP E

Belgium – Slovakia – Romania – Ukraine
To QualifyTo Win Group
Belgium91.3%61.5%
Ukraine66.3%17.8%
Romania59.3%11.8%
Slovakia52.3%8.9%

Poland’s Euro 2012 co-hosts Ukraine also had to go through the playoffs but, in fairness, they’d been stuck in a difficult cluster with England and Italy. They almost achieved automatic success, too.

Group E looks fairly even, as Belgium are in between generations and flopped at the 2022 World Cup. But Romelu Lukaku was the top overall scorer in qualifying with 14 goals. Both they and Romania remained unbeaten in their route to Germany.

Curiously, Slovakia’s head coach Francesco Calzona has been job-sharing with Napoli on a caretaker basis since February.

GROUP F

Turkey – Georgia – Portugal – Czech Republic
To QualifyTo Win Group
Portugal90.2%66.8%
Turkey71.9%16.2%
Czech Republic61.0%12.7%
Georgia34.9%4.3%

Former Belgium coach Roberto Martinez is now in charge of Portugal. Under him, the Euro 2016 champions won all 10 qualifiers, scoring more goals (36) and conceding fewer (two) than every other nation.

Awaiting them are debutants Georgia. Star player Khvicha Kvaratskhelia guided them to Nations League success, securing them a playoff spot for these Euros. Victory over Greece brought scenes of jubilation.

Elsewhere, an exciting bunch of Turkish wonderkids are emerging but an inconsistent 12 months has seen away wins in Germany and Croatia but also a 6-1 defeat to Austria. Rounding off the group is Czech Republic, who tend to fare better in Euros than in World Cups.



Euro 2024 Fantasy: Get involved with our coverage!


FPLMarc Newcastle fan that spends far too much time thinking about FPL.

50 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Milk, 1 Šuker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    15 days, 21 hours ago

    England are going to disappoint again aren't they?

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      15 days, 21 hours ago

      Its coming home

    2. x.jim.x
      • 9 Years
      15 days, 21 hours ago

      Drop Foden and we win the lot

      1. Luckylobo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        15 days, 20 hours ago

        Weird way to spell Southgate

    3. F4L
      • 9 Years
      15 days, 21 hours ago

      maybe. Semis would be alright. Disappointment would be losing to the first half decent side faced, ie Belgium or better. Bored of Southgate's "success" being based on easy runs and then just losing to the first half decent side (bar Germany), but they were nothing special last Euros as shown by their early WC exit not long after

      1. x.jim.x
        • 9 Years
        15 days, 20 hours ago

        We were getting knocked out before we faced the “half decent” sides before Southgate

        1. F4L
          • 9 Years
          15 days, 20 hours ago

          fair but then its a matter of perspective. improvement in recent years but enough to justify the pre-tournament (mainly media) hype and being bookies' favourites? for me no, having the got the results to back it up in recent years

          how people can look at France and their squad and achievements at major tournaments since 2016 and have England ahead for favourites is ridiculous

          1. F4L
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 20 hours ago

            *having not got

          2. x.jim.x
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 20 hours ago

            We have the second best squad in the tournament and got to the final last time - factor in all the fans who will lump on England to win no matter what and there you go.

            1. The Big Fella
              • 7 Years
              15 days, 20 hours ago

              Arguably third - France has the best squad in my opinion but Portugal is in the discussion

            2. F4L
              • 9 Years
              15 days, 20 hours ago

              😀 could argue until the cows come home. i mean Italy are holders and way out as 6th favourites etc

              its not just the bookies, like stats/analyst models have England as favourites (Opta at least I saw anyways)

              very similar to a popular FPL discussion, for me this is just eye test vs the stats etc. On paper great but then you watch England and they flatter to deceive

              Will of course say hope to proved wrong but have accepted at this point to just keep expectations low with England

    4. Mirror Man
        15 days, 20 hours ago

        Depends what the expectations are. Anything beyond the quarter final would be a success in my opinion.

        1. The Big Fella
          • 7 Years
          15 days, 20 hours ago

          The final is the minimum I think. I think overall winner will be Portugal. Another factor is which France shows up.

          1. Mirror Man
              15 days, 20 hours ago

              I'd be amazed if England made the final.

        2. Bluetiger1
          • 1 Year
          15 days, 16 hours ago

          Don't seem to be able to break down a low block.

          Need to play just one holding defensive player (4-1-3-2)/(4-1-4-1)
          or change shape to 4-3-3 like a lot of players in the Premiership
          with ball attacking five player & five left in defensive, defending as
          a team at least seven back. Against a low block I would put TAA in
          mid-field along side Rice as can with his passing get through the block/
          set play & also with no pressure cover our defense

      • F4L
        • 9 Years
        15 days, 21 hours ago

        Regardless of price, who are your top 3 attacking defensive options out of this list:

        A - Di Marco
        B - Maehle
        C - TAA
        D - Cancelo
        E - Dumfries
        F - Grimaldo
        G - Mittlestadt
        H - Theo.H
        I - Castagne
        J - Frimpong

        1. MattB
          • 10 Years
          15 days, 20 hours ago

          - G (price is unavoidable)
          - J - OOP - RW in friendlies
          - D - easy group and attacking potential
          - C if nailed on in Midfield, probably the most important if he ends up next to Rice.

          1. F4L
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 19 hours ago

            cheers

            yeah the 1/1.5mil saving with Mittlestadt makes him hard to ignore even if he's not as exciting an option as the rest, and yea Frimpong would be straight in if he was a starter, might risk it with subs during matchdays

        2. Moxon
          • 9 Years
          15 days, 19 hours ago

          D, H, A easy

          1. F4L
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 18 hours ago

            cheers

        3. sankalparora07
            15 days, 18 hours ago

            Where is Gvardiol in this list?

            1. F4L
              • 9 Years
              15 days, 15 hours ago

              i thought he was penned in for playing CB for Croatia

              1. St Pauli Walnuts
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                14 days, 21 hours ago

                Had loads of efforts and popping up in the box all the time in friendly the other day.

        4. fenixri
          • 8 Years
          15 days, 20 hours ago

          AGI

          1. F4L
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 19 hours ago

            cheers

        5. FPL Blow-In
          • 11 Years
          15 days, 19 hours ago

          Come on Limerick …

          1. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            15 days, 18 hours ago

            Fair play. Ye just toyed with The Banner in the second half.

            1. FPL Blow-In
              • 11 Years
              15 days, 16 hours ago

              Made history again! Hope we don’t cross them again later, they were poor by their standards.

          2. St Pauli Walnuts
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            14 days, 21 hours ago

            Come on give me a Limerick

        6. Debauchy
          • 11 Years
          15 days, 19 hours ago

          When it comes to the squad value of the players England are ahead by far, guess your manager is a rather unfortunate counterweight though.

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 12 Years
            15 days, 17 hours ago

            The squad value thing is nonsense. English players have inflated prices for homegrown status in a league with inflated prices

          2. x.jim.x
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 16 hours ago

            France, Portugal and England's squads are all worth well over a billion - hardly "ahead by far"

        7. shirtless
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          15 days, 18 hours ago

          had planned a summer off fantasy. However I've relented and picked a team! Done no planning and just playing for fun!

          Pickford
          Di Marco Akanji Mittlestadt Theate
          Wirtz(C) Scottish Pele Jorginho
          Mbappe Lukaku Kane

          Lunin Fernandes Kvaratskhelia Cancelo

          1. FFS ManU
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 18 hours ago

            "Scottish Pele" - ha ha.

        8. Count of Monte Hristo
          • 11 Years
          15 days, 18 hours ago

          Is Musiala worth the extra 1.0 over Wirtz?

        9. CONNERS
          • 5 Years
          15 days, 17 hours ago

          Any interest in Scamacca for the first round of fixtures?

          Obviously a slightly risky pick but seems cheap and playing one of the weakest teams in the competition.

          1. BUZZBOMB
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 17 hours ago

            Risky pick yes. Fixtures not great after MD1. Italy slow starters historically. Only 3 forward spots available. Most will ignore Id say.

            Im avoiding Italy and Spain other than defence until I see where theyre at around MD3.

            1. Ginkapo FPL
              • 12 Years
              15 days, 16 hours ago

              Italy never get going. 1-0's the whole way

        10. x.jim.x
          • 9 Years
          15 days, 16 hours ago

          5 years ago, Hazard went for over £100m to Real Madrid.
          Now he's lining up next to Lee Mack, Tommy Fury and Roman Kemp. Generational fall from grace.

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 12 Years
            15 days, 16 hours ago

            Is it Would I Pie To You?

            1. x.jim.x
              • 9 Years
              15 days, 16 hours ago

              Soccer Aid

            2. BUZZBOMB
              • 9 Years
              15 days, 16 hours ago

              Not going in?
              The 1% TSB?

        11. F4L
          • 9 Years
          15 days, 15 hours ago

          Anyone else think they've got the position classification badly wrong? Like looking at players like Tadic/Doku/Chiesa/Torres/Griezemann and then going to check their prices and they're all strikers and should be mids. feels like there are less to mids to chose from and you get to pick 5 while having 3 strikers, that 7-9.5 price range for midfielders should've been so much better

          1. The Knights Template
            • 10 Years
            15 days, 15 hours ago

            Don’t panic! Tis the same for all! The playing field is level! Nothing is wrong! Play on everyone!

        12. AlleRed
          • 6 Years
          15 days, 15 hours ago

          A little new to this format, so apologies if it's been covered extensively elsewhere, but what are pros/cons to various chip strategies? Team below (is everyone nailed)? TY

          Lunin (Gunok)
          Mittelstadt, Dimarco, Frimpong, Grimaldo (Cancelo)
          Saka, Szoboszlai, McTominay(C) (Bruno, Kvaratskhelia)
          Lukaku, Hojlund, Mbappe

          1. The Knights Template
            • 10 Years
            15 days, 15 hours ago

            Nailed it!

          2. The Mentaculus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 2 Years
            15 days, 2 hours ago

            Looks like you've nailed the strategy with subs. For chips, I prefer playing them all in the group stage to effectively get 3 FHs while the weakest teams are still in. KOs stages can be cagey and the FT allowance for them is plentiful. The main alternative is to save WC for the QF in case of R16 shocks, but I don't think its smart to save any chips for SF or later as its virtually all over by then with near-identical teams

            1. The Mentaculus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 2 hours ago

              Oh and Gunok is the only pick who I'm not sure on nailedness; rest looks solid. Interesting (c) choice though!

        13. Know_fpl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          14 days, 1 hour ago

          I really want Football to come home however I have a funny feeling Portugal will win. we will see if we get any surprises Austria or Ukraine could do better than we expect them to do.