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1 May 2015 44 comments
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In 1984, a 12-year-old Tennis prodigy by the name of Pete Sampras is convinced to abandon his best shot, the double handed backhand, by his coach in order to develop a game style that would give him the best chance to win Wimbledon. Immediately, his junior results plummet, falling behind the likes of fellow up and coming US stars Andre Agassi and Michael Chang, as his erratic one-handed backhand is mercilessly attacked by his peers. Despite this he persists and by the age of 31, it is Sampras who has the last laugh winning seven Wimbledon titles.

So right now you may be wondering what on earth has Pete Sampras got to do with Fantasy Football? Well, there are much stronger parallels between the two than you may think which brings me to my main message- playing your own game and picking the players you think will score the most points. In the above scenario, Pete Sampras stuck to his own game despite everyone else suggesting otherwise. But enough of Sampras, if I analyse the poor choices I have made this year, the root cause common with all of them is me playing safe letting others play the game for me. Here are my top  tips to avoiding following the herd and sticking to your guns, like Pistol Pete did.

Lesson 1 – Don’t kneejerk out a player just because everyone else is

With 12 points in the first two games of the season with only one Fantasy Premier League bonus point, people around me are selling Chelsea forward Diego Costa since he is “not explosive” enough. I take a four point hit to take him out for Manchester City’s Stevan Jovetic and immediately Costa scores a brace collecting all three FPL bonus points. He would then go on to score a hat trick but by then I have him back by taking another four point hit.

Lesson 2 – Don’t be fooled by pricey attacking defenders from leaky teams

In Gameweek 8 Leighton Baines scored 15 FPL points and backs it up with scores  of 7, 7, & 11 in the next three games. With excellent fixtures to follow, he nevertheless disappointed with returns of 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 and 2 before I finally sold him in Gameweek 19, many weeks too late. During this barren stretch, many Fantasy managers continued to insist on keeping him due to his excellent fixtures and blinded by his earlier returns.

Another example was in Gameweek 17 when Manchester City’s Pablo Zabaleta scored 11 points and many Fantasy managers were keen to invest in the attacking defender. I was one of those but then under my ownership  Zabaleta offered four shocking returns of 0, 0, 0 & 2 before I finally sold him.

Lesson 3 – Ignore price and reputation when deciding on a captain

In Gameweek 17  all week my captaincy was firmly locked onto QPR’s Charlie Austin  at home to West Brom until I change it to Alexis Sanchez away to Liverpool at the 11th hour. Despite my gut feel about Austin, I was influenced by other Fantasy managers talking about West Brom’s “strong away defence form.”  Austin would go on to score a hat trick in a 3-2 win over West Brom with a haul of 17 points while Sanchez would go on to blank at Anfield.

Conclusion

I could go on and analyse every poor choice I have made this season but it’s unnecessary. But what is clear to me is the common thread that existed in my choices; that is me letting external factors influence my personal decision making.

44 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks for this. There are so many times this season where captaincy let me down. Too often I also opted for the pricey high reputation player, while ignoring the potential of the likes of Austin and Kane.

    1. Shifty
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      And then when you've warmed up to the idea of Kane as a proper captain and give him the armband for the easy games, he blanks.

      But explodes in the tough games.

      FPL....

    2. Ginkapo FPL
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      But captaining the high priced player, and playing the dullard odds is your style! Dont avoid that.

  2. Wolverine
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I agree with what's being said and pretty much always go with my gut. The only exception maybe the Austin capt where I was set to capt him and changed last minute too. I would argue that I basically took that decision myself though still but maybe there was some sort of influence.

    Not sure the analogy makes total sense to me. You could argue Sampras didn't play his own game and played his coaches game. And FFS/scout picks etc could be the coach for successes that follow! I get your point though

  3. fusen
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Is this not be a little selective with just choices that ended up being poor?

    Have you looked at changes you made that were based on "group think" that actually worked out better?

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      The examples I showed were choices I made that I would not have made if nobody else were making them. They turned out to be poor because I followed the herd without properly thinking over my decision. I'm not too sure group thinking has positively impacted on my choices in many cases because I feel that 90 percent of the time I know what I'm going to do and nothing will change it. If I want to ask, it's not really because I need help but more because I want someone to reassure me by advising the same move. But having said that, following the herd has helped me when I'm uncertain but it is ultimately the moves that others don't make which seperates us from each other and allows us to move ranks as opposed to stagnating around a rank. Thanks for reading!

      1. Woy of the Wovers
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 7 months ago

        How can you be sure that you wouldn't have made those moves? Our memories are not perfect and we are prone to confirmation bias which finds comfort in attributing poor results to external factors. With this list of "don'ts" maybe some examples of when you followed them would work better.

        In my case - kept Costa, Baines is a good pick and served me well while Zabaleta was a poor pick, Austin(c)

        1. FPL Gossip Blogger
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 7 months ago

          I'm not sure but I'm confident that I would have perhaps made a better choice with a clearer mind. For example, taking out Costa for a four pointer was completely unjustified especially for Jovetic who was subject to rotation. If I had decided to play my own game, I'm confident that I would have resisted the four pointer and waited it out but I can't guarantee that like you said. Yeah I'll keep in mind your advice for next time if there is one. Thanks for reading!

  4. Ryan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    There are so many external influences such as popular opinion, player prices, reputation (good or bad). I think the best way to play your own game is to watch football matches and see certain players in action. Its often the best way to inform your own opinions without these other influences.

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Sadly I still have school and with the matches early in the morning, I can only watch a few matches a year. In 1 years time hopefully things will change. Thanks for reading!

  5. Amateur Pundit Zan
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Over the course of a season i will listen to advice and its wrong, listen to advice and its right. Ignore advice and get it right and ignore advice and get it wrong. Not sure that proves anything but there it is.

    1. 11 Angry Men
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      This.

      I think all you really do is try to gather as much information as possible, listen to as many different options as possible, and then make an informed decision. The main problem then is that we all overthink things and agonise every week!!

      One good thing I have noticed is that you learn who is worth listening to, who makes original and bold choices, and who is just following the herd...

    2. andy85wsm
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      That pretty much sums it up.

      Main difference is people will moan when they receive "bad advice" but not praise when they receive "good advice"

  6. GENERATION X
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    A personal flaw for me is also buying or keeping injured players when there is no obvious information on their fitness e.g. seen working well in training. Cue another Nugent moan...

  7. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Nice little article

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks for reading!

  8. Barry Woj
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Nice article!

    I think you're definitely right that we can go along with the herd far too often and that price and reputation often cloud judgement when it comes to picking certain players. But on the other hand I think it's easy to remember the occasions when going against one's gut and going with the majority has failed, as opposed to all the other times when picking the most obvious choice over your gut feeling has paid off, albeit in a less stylish and explosive fashion.

    I think playing the game over a 38 week season requires that you play the percentages and make the safe, dullard choices more often than not. The safe choices are by definition those that the majority makes. Yes, there is far less reward, but there is also far less risk. It's dull, but that's how to be consistent! Good differentials are statistically improbable otherwise everyone would be going for that particular player on that occasion. You have to try and go for a few differentials from time to time, but ignoring the masses is dangerous - since that's who you're playing against.

    My attempt at an analogy would be like Wenger Vs. Mourinho. Wenger is a purist who's team plays to his philosophy regardless of the opponent. Mourinho is reactive and plays his opponent. I know who I'd rather be :p.

  9. Patch
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Lesson 1, I agree. Do you think that Lesson 2 and Lesson 3 might be a bit specific to this season, though? In many past seasons premium defenders and dullard captain choices have been winners.

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Last season was sensational with Suarez so made captaincy so much easier. I wish we had a Messi or Ronaldo in the Premier League this season. Although might make the game a little dull.

      1. Patch
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 7 months ago

        I think this season is a bit of an outlier in that respect. Hazard's been good, but hasn't piled on the points in the same way as Suarez, RVP, Ronaldo, Lampard and Henry have in past seasons.

    2. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Well in this season Ivanovic has been an absolute winner. I think premium defenders are definitely worth it as long as the team is picking up cleansheets. Clyne and Bertrand have been excellent this year although they are kind of mid priced but you get what I mean.

      1. Patch
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 7 months ago

        Clean sheets seem much harder to come by than they did, say, five years ago. It's really only been Chelsea and Southampton that have offered that this season. Back in the day it seemed there were more - Chelsea, Man Utd, Benitez' Liverpool, Pulis' Stoke, Moyes' Everton, Allardyce's Bolton.

  10. Hurnt
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Replies appreciated

    Heaton

    Ivan Clyne Bertrand Skrtel

    Haz Fab Sterling Coutinho

    Aguero (c) Kane

    Pants Mane Ulloa Baird

    1FT 0.0ITB

    Play Ulloa over Clyne? Use FT?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Brilliant article to reply fail in 😀

    2. grandemessi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      I would play Ulloa and get some Arsenal cover. No way Hull gets another cleanie

  11. HNI
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Guys as its Labour Day today do Uk,Us and Aussie guys have holiday at workplace today??

    1. The Enlightener
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Our Labor Day in the U.S. is the first Monday in September. More or less marks the end of summer. Many people do get the day off.

    2. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      In the UK we have a May Day Bank Holiday on Monday instead.

  12. Kalix
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    You analogy is a bit flawed. In fact, it might be the exact opposite of the point you were trying to make! 🙂

    Pete Sampras's game was the two handed back hand...he was convinced to leave his own game behind and follow the "hype" of a one-handed back hand. He had great success.

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      I suppose if you interpret it that way, you are correct now I think about it. The way I viewed it was the herd mentality being Sampras reverting back to his two handed while losing during the juniors. Sampras "plays his own game" and sticks with the one handed despite being targeted by others. Thanks for reading!

  13. Kalix
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    What about all the times you were about to captain a player, and the community convinced you not to.

    your original captain gets 2 pts, and the community captain gets a brace ?

    Surely happened once or twice? 🙂

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Yes it has happened in the past but it's much rarer compared to the other scenario. I've been horrible with my captaincy all year as I prefer to play it safe and go with the poll which usually favours reputation. But at least it protects me from dropping too many ranks but it's something I still need to work on.

  14. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I find it hard to believe someone called federer who uses Sampras as an example

  15. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Was expecting a seven or eight point article also
    Feel a bit cheated

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks for reading! I was going to make it longer but I'm a newbie here and I have no idea how long would be too much. I couldn't think of an applicable Federer analogy so I resorted to Sampras although I wanted to do Roddick originally.

  16. the Penman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Good article to bear in mind.

    Am I the only one who looked at the article picture and thought "wow, Costa's looking younger every day"?

  17. MCH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Your thinking is competley results based which is a mistake. Just because a player you sell goes on and scores a load of points the next few matches does not mean it was wrong to sell them. If the transfer had a positive net expectation then it is correct no matter what the actual outcome.

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Well don't we have a positive net expectation for every transfer we make? Does that mean every transfer we make is correct since according to you the outcome doesn't really matter?

  18. Torres76
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    With Ramsey set to rise tonight, who will score more this week:

    1. Ramsey
    2. Sterling

    Cheers

  19. Torres76
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Giroud, Ramsey and Sanchez for the DGW me thinks

  20. ellelelle
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks for this article. There are times I doubt myself because I feel very new to this but I need to remember the times when sticking my nose out and listening to my gut has paid off..

    It's still a fine balance between aping and risk taking for me because I still think I could learn a thing or two about a thing or two, and there are a lot of good players here who clearly know their stuff so it's hard to resist asking for their input.. but hopefully I can figure it out as I go along/in time for next season and trust myself a little more!

    The good news though is I think your first lesson justifies me keeping Silva.. I think I might have a weakness when it comes to Lesson Two though.. love those attacking defenders..

  21. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I'm sorry, this article just seems a bit like looking back on chosen players with a bad taste in the mouth.

    How many times has going with the community worked out for you? The pack helped us choose Southampton defenders, and George Boyd remember.

    1. FPL Gossip Blogger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      What I'm saying is that it's important to play your own game and just pick the players you think will score the most. In most cases, the players that the community recommends are indeed the players that will score the most like you outlined with the Southampton defenders. However, not much of the community recommended doubling on Southampton defence and this is an example of a case where I think "playing your own game" is important if you know what I mean. Thanks for reading!

  22. bennyp
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    The only one that really got me this season was staying on the baines train too long. Would have 50 or so extra points if I just swapped him for Ivan early..