Newcastle and Sunderland "Janus" Appraisal

This draft article is posted here for comments, especially from those that know the clubs well. All feedback will be taken into account in the final revision. And as usual, if you don't want to read a long post please skip over. 🙂

Last in this series of reviews we come to the Premier League's (PL) two North-Eastern clubs, Sunderland and Newcastle. Difficult to assess because they both have new managers, important to assess because they are one of the most selected home/away rotation pairs for experienced FPL managers in many seasons. So what effect will their new coaches have on them and what can be expected in the coming season?

Newcastle finished the season in 15th place on 39 points, with 40 goals scored and a huge 63 conceded - only QPR let in more PL goals in 2014/15. The second half of the season (after the departure of Alan Pardew) was truly dismal with 26 points coming in the 18 games before Pardew left and only 13 points in the 20 games after John Carver took over. The defense was poor all season, goals conceded averaging 1.61 goals per game under Pardew and 1.89 per game under Carver. However under Carver the goals dried up as well, culminating in a run where 5 were scored in 10 games (9 defeats) during March and April.

So what effect will the appointment of Steve McClaren have? He is a coach with a chequered club history - relatively successful spells with Middlesbrough and FC Twente, less successful at Wolfsburg, FC Twente (2nd time) and Derby. Generally quite good on the offensive side of the game, defensive solidity has not historically been McClaren's strongest point. Over the last 2 seasons his Derby team scored 85 and 84 goals in the Championship - good totals for promotion contenders. But they conceded 56 and 52 goals, behind most of their promotion rivals. Couple that tendency with the traditional preference among Newcastle fans for a team that plays open, attacking football and the likely outcome would seem likely to be a team that will improve offensively more than it does defensively.

With Dick Advocaat ("Big Dick" as the Sunderland faithful have affectionately named him) we are dealing with a more known quantity as he took charge of Sunderland for the last 9 games of the 2014/15 season. 3 wins and 3 draws in his first 8 games (scoring 7 and conceding 7, with 4 clean sheets) was a big improvement on their form for the season as a whole, especially defensively, and was enough to see the Black Cats to 16th place on 38 points. But they remained a team that was short of goals - only Burnley managed less goals over the season than Sunderland's total of 31.

Advocaat is a very experienced coach with a reputation for favouring team ethic and defensive solidity. So the reported agreement he has with the Sunderland owner Ellis Short that 4-5 quality additions can be made to the squad suggests that there may be good Fantasy Football options at the Stadium of Light next season, especially amongst the defenders, once the shape of the new squad becomes clearer.

THE DEFENCE

As noted above, it would take a big leap of faith to expect Newcastle to quickly become a much better defensive unit under McClaren, although early links with players like Joel Matip of Schalke and Aymen Abdennour of Monaco (both centre backs) suggest that defensive improvement is a priority in his mind. It may, however, be wisest to look for now at Newcastle defenders who don't need to rely solely on clean sheets for fantasy points.

Goalkeeper (GK) Tim Krul mustered 17 save points on his way to 99 FPL points from 30 games played (Newcastle failed to get a single clean sheet without him in the team) and having amassed less points than he did in 2013/14 it seems unlikely that he'll be priced above last season's 4.5m. A GK rotation with Sunderland's Costel Pantilimon could therefore be a realistic option, although Pantilimon (Sunderland's top FPL scorer with 123 points) will probably see a price rise to 5.0m at least and 9.5m (could be 10.0m) may be higher than ideal for a GK pair.

Apart from Krul, the stand out Newcastle defender is likely to be Daryl Janmaat, who mustered a goal and 8 assists during the season on his way to becoming their highest scoring player in FPL with 118 points. One who may benefit from McClaren's probable attacking approach, the downside with Janmaat is a likely price increase to 5.5m (FPL). That would likely put him in direct competition with players like Joleon Lescott of WBA and Ashley Williams of Swansea, teams that are defensively more reliable.

The upside of Newcastle's weak 2014/15 defensive performance may well be kind price tags for other defenders like Coloccini and Dummett, however, and there could therefore be bargains to be had if Newcastle's defensive performance improves.

For Sunderland there should be plenty of worthwhile defensive options apart from GK Pantilimon. Club captain John O'Shea is a steady if unspectacular fantasy football performer, though a possible price tag of 5.0m after his 107 FPL points last season may put some managers off. The value picks are likely to be the fullbacks, Billy Jones and Patrick van Aanholt. Neither would appear likely to be priced above 4.5m, at which level especially van Aanholt (5 assists in 25 starts) would be attractive to many.

The Sunderland-Newcastle defender rotation pairing may look risky given Newcastle's defensive frailties but it is worth noting that Stoke also pair well with Sunderland (home/away rotation in 28 of 38 games). Stoke may well also have feasible 4.5m defenders (see my previous article) so this may be one solution that fantasy managers will look at.

THE MIDFIELD

Among the Newcastle midfielders the highest FPL points scorers in 2014/15 were Jack Colback, Remy Cabella and Moussa Sissoko. Amongst these, Cabella was the leader on all the creative statistics (key passes, chances created) apart from assists and he was also the leader on all the shooting statistics (inside box, overall shots) apart from goals. Increasingly a prolific goalscorer from midfield during his time at Montpellier in Ligue 1, it may be that French International Cabella was somewhat unlucky not to achieve more goals and assists last season and he's one that could well benefit from McClaren's influence on Newcastle's playing style. Unlikely to be priced above 6.0m or 6.5m, he could be a very live "4th midfielder" option if nailing a spot in McClaren's starting XI.

Moussa Sissoko continues to be a player whose actual FPL returns seem to undershoot his promise but Jack Colback had a very good first season for the Toon, racking up 114 FPL points from centre midfield. Unlikely to be priced above 5.5m (maybe 5.0m) he could be a worthwhile budget option though his tendency to accrue yellow cards (12 last season) remains a concern. In addition we should also consider Siem De Jong, a high scoring attacking midfielder in his time with Ajax whose first season with Newcastle was totally disrupted by 2 long-term injuries. McClaren will know all about De Jong from his time managing Twente and it's quite possible that the Dutch International could prove to be the best of the bunch given an injury-free run.

For Sunderland, Sebastian Larsson and Jordi Gomez were the reliable midfield starters under Advocaat. Larsson had very decent creative stats (similar to Cabella) and is also an excellent free kick taker. Unfortunately his price tag seems unlikely to fall below last season's 5.5m, at which level he's not the greatest value on past performance. Gomez may get a price drop to 5.0m but doesn't seem great value even at that level, although as Sunderland's penalty taker he is always capable of a goal. However a feasible wildcard option could be Jack Rodwell - highly rated in his Everton days and one who may have the talent to make a much bigger impact if featuring in Advocaat's plans for next season.

STRIKERS

A difficult area for both teams and in which both would apparently like to add to their squads, although effective strikers (like Charlie Austin who has been linked with Newcastle) are generally sought after by a number of clubs. As it stands neither North East team has convincing striker options from a fantasy football point of view.

For Newcastle, Papiss Cisse scores lots of goals when he plays. But that's the problem. In all but one of the last 4 seasons he has played less than 1400 minutes, that's around 15 full games at most. He may score readily when he plays but he seldom seems to stay injury free for long enough to rely on. Emmanuel Riviere was disappointing with 1 goal in more than 1200 minutes of play in his first Newcastle season and did not pull up any trees before that in France either (40 goals in 161 league appearances). Ayoze Perez had a promising first season but 7 goals from 36 appearances (even if quite a few were as a substitute) is nothing to write home about. For attacking players the Newcastle midfielders look better options right now.

Sunderland do have a proven PL striker in Jermain Defoe but his 4 goals in 17 starts was really disappointing. Neither Connor Wickham nor Steven Fletcher have convincing goalscoring histories either. With only 31 goals scored in total in the 2014/15 PL, Sunderland appear to really need a new striker, either that or a way to get more from Jermain Defoe. Most fantasy managers will be taking a wait and see approach until then.