Price Changes, 11/6/15

Risers - Giroud

Fallers - Mata PRoberts CWilson Obiang Gomez Sako Martial Huth

On behalf on Wild Rover

Rare long post from me

Still seeing a constant flow of questions about when to play the AOA chip but the truth is, unless you get really lucky it has very little value. The chances of all of your front eight scoring well in the same week is minimal and even then you can bet one or more of your defenders on the bench also scores well. As far as I can see there are only two situations where it is worth playing.

1) You have a front eight who all have good fixtures and can't decide who to bench.

While this won't guarantee you success and some will likely fail, it will at least ensure you don't bench the one with the highest score, but there is still a chance one or more defender scores better than some of your front eight. Risky if you have three def's also with good fixtures.. and you will still captain the wrong player

2) You can't field three defenders due to bans, injuries or being out of favour, or your 3rd, 4th and 5th defenders have terrible fixtures. Although it gives you a better chance of at least having eleven players, it's not likely to bring much success if Westwood or Wanyama is your fifth mid. There is also a risk one of your mid's doesn't play, your Bournemouth defender comes in away to Arsenal and you lose your chip.

Best bet for me? Probably wait until you have awful fixtures for defenders and use a freebie to upgrade 8th fwd/mid assuming you don't already have Ighalo or similar.

Pre-Gw12 Stat Attack: Buckle yourselves in, & witness the analytical odyssey bestowed upon you. Embrace the stats.

Team Stats:
- (vs CSKA) ManUnited ended a run of 404 minutes in all competitions without a goal.
- ManUnited have gone seven hours of football in all competitions without conceding a goal.
- Chelsea's defensive decline, https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CS5a1okWUAAwoS6.png:large
- Leicester are the only PL team to score in all of their league games this season.
- Only one team (West Brom, 109) have hit fewer shots than ManUnited in the PL this season.
- Southampton have now scored six headed goals this season in the PL (the most); twice as many as they did in 2014-15 overall (3).
- Arsenal's back four won just 2 tackles against Bayern Munich
- Arsenal have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their 5 matches without Bellerín this season (all competitions).
- Fewest chances created in the PL this term: Man Utd (81), Stoke (82), West Brom (83), Sunderland (87)
- No side has scored more set-piece goals in the PL this season than Spurs (8)
- Jurgen Klopp's impact on Liverpool https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSpvUM1WsAA5a4-.png:large
- Newcastle have won none and lost 10 of their last 12 PL away games, scoring just three goals in that run.
- Sunderland have allowed their opponents 69 shots on target against them this season, more than any other team.
- Sunderland have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their last 12 PL matches.
- There have been 25 goals scored in six PL meetings between Norwich and Swansea .
- Leicester games have seen the most goals in the PL this season (42), while Watford games have seen the fewest (20).
- Leicester have lost just two of their last 12 PL home matches (W8 D2 L2) and those defeats came against Chelsea and Arsenal.
- Watford have lost just one of their last six PL away games.
- Only one team has managed to score against West Brom in the Baggies' five PL away trips this season (Crystal Palace)
- West Brom have lost just one of their last five PL games against ManUnited W2 D2 L1. Those two victories have come in their last two trips to Old Trafford.
- West Brom have won five and lost just two of their last nine PL games on the road.
- Only Sunderland (69) have allowed more shots on target against them than Chelsea (63) in the PL this season.
- ManCity have allowed just 28 shots on target against them, fewer than any other team in the top flight this season.
- Aston Villa have lost five and won none of their last six PL games at Villa Park and failed to score in four of those games.
- Palace have only scored four goals in their last seven PL matches and three of those have been Cabaye penalties.
- Arsenal have won 13 and lost just two of their last 18 PL games at the Emirates, conceding just nine goals in that run.
- The Gunners have scored 199 and conceded 97 goals in PL London derbies on home soil. They also have earned 399 points from all London derbies.
- Spurs have won just one of their last 22 PL trips to their north London rivals (W1 D8 L13).
- Newcastle have scored five headed goals from just six headers on target in the PL this season.
- The Magpies have failed to score in six PL matches this season, more than any other team.

Current results "prediction" for each match this weekend (based on each team's number of team goals spread bet mid-point on Spreadex)

Bournemouth 1.55 Newcastle 1.25
Leicester 1.7 Watford 1.05
Man U 2.15 West Brom 0.55
Norwich 1.35 Swansea 1.25
Sunderland 0.9 Southampton 1.7
West Ham 1.5 Everton 1.4
Stoke 1 Chelsea 1.5
Villa 0.85 Man City 2.15
Arsenal 2 Spurs 1.1
Liverpool 1.8 Palace 0.85

For example, if Bournemouth v Newcastle as played, say, 100 times, Spreadex reckon that Bournemouth would score 155 goals (i.e. a 1.55 average) and Newcastle 125 (i.e. a 1.25 average).

Predicted goals gone up by 0.05 in last 24 hours: Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Man U, Newcastle, West Ham

Predicted goals gone down by 0.05 in last 24 hours: Palace, Stoke, Sunderland

SCOUT PICKS CHALLENGE - GW11 RESULTS

Just as a warning - I'm heading off to the Bahamas on Saturday for two weeks for a well deserved break - therefore GW12 results will NOT be posted until near the end of GW13! (Before you ask - I didn't plan it for an international break - that's just great luck!)

***** SCORES ON THE BOARD *****

1st - Seb10 (70pts) [3pts]
Top 4% - Pochecinno (67pts), Smooth, TL (66pts) [2pts]
Top 10% - Reedy, Ameenkw, The Orienteer (65pts), Sully SOnc (64pts) [1pt]

with VS10, IanP1970, Tibbles and MB10 all being only a single point out of the scoring!

The FFS Scout Picks + Differentials scored a combined total of 68 points this gameweek, so only Seb10 wins a bonus point this gameweek folks.

Things have become static at the top, but definitely a lot of movement down below! Our top 3 are;

1st - Balders (13pts)
2nd - Mr.Robot (10pts)
3rd - Dusan Citizen (9pts)

Spreadsheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oyuz31n7ppeccuu/Scout%20Picks%20Challenge.xlsm?dl=0