Welcome to my latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results. As usual I’ll be looking ahead to key captaincy options, match predictions, clean sheets and a look back to see how my previous predictions fared.
Captaincy Options
The names on the left-hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll (at time of writing), while on the right are the bookies’ fraction bets to score. On the far right are the decimal odds.
- Romelu Lukaku 1. Diego Costa (19/20) 1.95
- Riyad Mahrez 2. Eden Hazard (21/20) 2.05
- Eden Hazard 3. Romelu Lukaku (11/10) 2.10
- Georgino Wijnaldum 4. Jamie Vardy (6/4) 2.50
- Jamie Vardy 5. Harry Kane (17/10) 2.70
- Mesut Ozil 6. Philippe Coutinho (19/10) 2.90
- Harry Kane 7. Georgino Wijnaldum (2/1) 3.00
- Diego Costa 8. Odion Ighalo (2/1) 3.00
- Philippe Coutinho 9. Riyad Mahrez (2/1) 3.00
- Odion Ighalo 10. Mesut Ozil (14/5) 3.80
Captaincy Analysis:
Despite not being in form, a home tie with Sunderland catapults Costa and Hazard to the top of the bookies’ shortest odds to score from the FFS Captaincy poll. A reminder that this exact scenario played out with when Chelsea entertained Bournemouth and they’re the ones to avoid in my opinion. Harry Kane and Philippe Coutinho are not tempting at relatively short prices as they are both struggling for form and a return from injury respectively. Two stand-out options that offer both form and a tasty price from the bookies are:
- Riyad Mahrez (eve) – The Leicester wide-man continues to offer incredible consistency considering his price and is a man in red-hot form. Factor in his incredible away stats, with four double-digit Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points hauls on the road this season already, and the likelihood of an open game and this all equals to a decent option for your armband this weekend.
- Odion Ighalo (LIV) – Sitting at a surprising 10th in the FFScout Captaincy poll, Ighalo and Watford entertain Liverpool this weekend. Liverpool have lapsed defensively in the last two games, conceding twice to both Newcastle and West Brom. Their stopper Simon Mignolet sits top for errors leading to goals (8) which is higher than any goalkeeper from the last three seasons. Couple this with an injury to Dejan Lovren and I think Ighalo is set to prosper this weekend.
Clean Sheets
(in order, decimals on the right):
Chelsea – (4/7) 1.57
Man Utd – (EVS) 2.00
Liverpool – (29/20) 2.45
Swansea – (6/4) 2.50
Newcastle – (17/10) 2.70
Stoke – (17/10) 2.70
West Brom – (7/4) 2.75
Southampton – (21/10) 3.10
Bournemouth – (11/5) 3.20
Everton – (11/5) 3.20
Tottenham – (11/5) 3.20
Crystal Palace – (23/10) 3.30
Arsenal – (5/2) 3.50
West Ham – (11/4) 3.75
Man City – (3/1) 4.00
Watford – (3/1) 4.00
Aston Villa – (16/5) 4.20
Leicester – (17/5) 4.40
Norwich – (9/2) 5.50
Sunderland – (6/1) 7.00
Gameweek 17 Preview – The Matches
Odds for each team to win in brackets followed by a score prediction and mini-analysis:
Chelsea (3/10) vs Sunderland (17/2) – 1-0 – Really difficult game to call. Sunderland boss Sam Allardyce will certainly bring his bus with him to Stamford Bridge and try and hit on the counter but does he have the players to execute this strategy? I’m not so sure so I’m reluctantly backing Chelsea to just get over the line. The departure of Jose Mourinho, another fan of parking the bus, gives hope that this won’t be a recreation of an episode of On The Buses that many had predicted and makes this clash even more uncertain.
Southampton (6/4) vs Tottenham (9/5) – 2-3 – The last three games between these teams have averaged four goals and I’m predicting that trend to continue. Both teams will be looking to bounce back after some poor results recently and an open game could well ensue.
West Brom (7/5) vs Bournemouth (21/20) – 1-1 – Tony Pulis’ side now enter a run of favourable fixtures that sees an attack-minded Bournemouth visit the Hawthorns. I think Bournemouth will have enough about them to snatch a draw.
Man Utd (2/5) vs Norwich (15/2) – 3-2 – The game could rest on the availability of several key United defenders; if this were at Carrow road I’d be backing a 1-1 but at Old Trafford, I’m predicting a much more open-game. I just have a sneaky feeling LVG will let the reins off his players this weekend.
Stoke (13/10) Crystal Palace (11/5) – 1-2 – The last two meetings between these teams have finished 2-1 and I think it will go to Pardew’s men this weekend. Stoke have been very impressive defensively of late but Palace are renowned for their away performances; look out for Bolasie to deliver in this one.
Everton (21/20) vs Leicester (12/5) – 2-2 – An early goal could signal an end-to-end classic between two of the in-form teams in the Premier League. Mahrez showed against Zouma that he certainly has the ability to get the better of Baines, especially if Deulofeu/Kone don’t do their defensive duties.
Newcastle (21/20) vs Aston Villa (13/5) – 2-1 – Newcastle have beaten Aston Villa at home in the last four meetings at St James’ Park. I see no quality in the Aston Villa line-up whereas with Newcastle, Janmaat and Wijanldum do offer enough to impact upon games. The latter I fancy to score FPL points this weekend.
Watford (11/4) v Liverpool (EVS) – 2-1- Watford continue to be solid at home and although I foresee Liverpool getting on the scoresheet this weekend, Ighalo and Deeney are likely to come up against Skrtel and Toure, with the latter proving the weak link in my view. Ighalo, in my opinion, offers a fantastic differential captaincy choice this weekend.
Swansea (23/20) vs West Ham (5/2) – 2-1 – Will there be a new manager in time for this game? I think Swansea looked threatening against Man City and were unlucky not to come away with at least a point. West Ham are now missing Reid and Lanzini and I struggle to see enough quality for them to get any points this weekend.
Arsenal (6/4) vs Man City (7/4) – 1-1– Will Wenger rush Sanchez back? Probably. Will Aguero return? I think so. The last two meetings have resulted in scoring draws and I think this trend will carry on with both teams cancelling each other out in what could unfortunately be a rather timid affair.
Tip: Ighalo anytime + Mahrez anytime + Wijnaldum anytime treble @ 26/1
Last Week’s Predictions
Finally, a quick look back to see how last week’s predictions fared.
Gameweek 16
- Six of the top 10 in the FFScout captaincy poll delivered attacking returns this week.
- Three times in a row now where only one of the top five most likely to keep a clean sheet did just that.
- Ighalo continued to deliver for the highlighted captaincy options with David Silva letting the picks down.
- I nailed the Bournemouth result with five other matches going the way of the predictions on offer.
