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What the Bookies Say – Gameweek 8 Captaincy

13 October 2016 63 comments
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Last season Your Mum’s Athletic took a look at bookies odds to see if they could be an aid in helping choosing your captain for the upcoming GW. But what if he tried to factor in form and fixture into the equation? Here’s his results in his own words.

Refining the Odds

First of all I took six popular captaincy options for the upcoming Gameweek and ranked them from 1-6 according to their likelihood to score, according to the bookies.

I then took the same players and appled the same 1-6 ranking in terms of fixtures, measured by how many goals and big chances their opponents have conceded over the last four league games.

Finally, I applied the same rankings over the same period to assess form, based on points per game, goals and assists over the last four league games that they have played.

Bookies Odds

Rank   Player      Odds

1.        Aguero      8/11

2.        Costa         5/6

3.        Sanchez    10/11

4.        Benteke    11/8

5.        Son            6/4

6.        Firmino     7/4

Fixtures

Rank         Player    Fixture      Goals Conceded      Big Chances Conceded

1.             Benteke  (WHU)                 12                                    10

2.             Sanchez  (swa)                     8                                     10

3.             Costa       (LEI)                     8                                     9

4.             Firmino  (MUN)                  7                                     6

5.             Son        (wba)                      5                                      6

6.             Aguero  (EVE)                     3                                      2

Form

Rank            Player         PPG         Goals      Assists

1.                   Son            10.75         4              2

2.                   Firmino      8.5            3              1

3.                   Costa          7.75          4              1

4.                   Aguero       7.5            4              0

5.                   Sanchez      7              3               1

6.                   Benteke     5.25         3               0

Results

Rank      Player     Odds     Fixture    Form     Total

1.            Costa        2             3              3            8

2.           Sanchez    3             2              5            10

3.           Son            5             5              1             11

4.           Aguero      1             6              4            11

5.           Benteke    4              1             6            11

6.           Firmino     6              4             2            12

Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Chelsea’s Diego Costa is the likeliest to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek.

Alexis Sanchez of Arsenal is close behind in second, while Spur’s Heung-Min Son, Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Christian Benteke all totaled the same amount on 11. I have placed Son higher up in the results as he tops the form list from the trio. It’s worth pointing out, using this method as a test last week, that Roberto Firmino was the runaway leader. If this proves popular, I will try and make this a weekly article.

63 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. The Real Big Vern
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 25 days ago

    costa cap for me

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    1. chelseajohn
      10 years, 25 days ago

      ditto.

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  2. A.T
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Good idea. Let's hope it does the biz this week. Thanks YMA

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  3. Pirlø's Pen
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Tadic (C) it is

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  4. Pegboy
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Interesting article, thanks.

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  5. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    10 years, 25 days ago

    El capitan?

    a) Costa
    b) Sanchez
    c) Lukaku
    d) Amat

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    1. chelseajohn
      10 years, 25 days ago

      A

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    2. Donkanomics101
      10 years, 25 days ago

      B most definitely.

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    3. UnitedWeStand
      10 years, 24 days ago

      its so BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB!

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  6. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Interesting stuff. Will be good to see how well the prediction works out if you do decide to continue on.

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  7. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Thanks YMA

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  8. St. Joseph
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Still one big factor not included

    International minutes and distance travelled

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    1. St. Joseph
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Great Job though!

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    2. PvA
      10 years, 25 days ago

      For who?

      I have a HT on Sanchez and Aguero

      Also a post about Coutinho and Firmino

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    3. FPL Maldini
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Who is at risk?

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  9. Donkanomics101
    10 years, 25 days ago

    A) Aguero
    B) Walcott
    C) Firmino
    D) Payet
    E) Benteke

    Those are my options. What do you guys think?

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  10. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Thanks for this.

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  11. FeverPitch
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Thanks for this, a really cool idea. Would definitely value this as a regular article, using bookies odds makes for a unique formula

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  12. Your Mum's Athletic
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Chees guys, it's meant to be a more simple version for captaincy choice than the 7 point thing

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  13. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Might as well captain him before he gets banned next week lol

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  14. RPK
    10 years, 25 days ago

    What if all players are included rather than just the 6 popular captaincy Options to start off with? The results could throw up a completely different name . Also, bookies odds is already a function of form + fixture , hence redundant .

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    1. Ruth_NZ
      10 years, 25 days ago

      The bookies odds are a function of the betting patterns they expect more than anything else. 😕

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      1. Sconeaus - The Dude Abides
        10 years, 25 days ago

        True enough, but usually a good indicator of how likely players are to score also.

        Not 100% accurate by any means, but interesting to see how plays out from players above 🙂

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    2. George Sillett
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Bookies initial odds are purely an odds compilers opinion . After that it is a direct correlation with overall liability and nothing else.

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  15. Costalot
    10 years, 25 days ago

    I'm no expert at betting but according to those odds, should it be
    1.Sanchez 2.Costa 3. Aguero ?

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    1. Costalot
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Sorry, my bad. Reading odds wrong way round.
      Love the new puncheon look btw Jonty

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  16. Sconeaus - The Dude Abides
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Great article, v intriguing I'm still between Costa & Sanchez at minute, but have firminho n aguero too.

    Hopefully all score big. Curious to see how plays out with other factors incorporated.

    Fair play Jonty....

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  17. Jay_
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Great stuff

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  18. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Tekkers for me. You can't have more in favour for a captain choice. Bang in form, fixture, low ownership.

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    1. Eskimooo
      10 years, 25 days ago

      if i didn't support west ham id probably captain tekkers !

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  19. Dokdok666
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Loving it!

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  20. Sciolist
    10 years, 25 days ago

    This doesn't work because the bookies already take form & fixture into account. You're double counting some things, but with the wrong weightings.

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    1. FeverPitch
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Interesting point, but I don't think it unbalances things I think it just gives a different perspective. The formula above essentially mediates fixture and form through the lens of a number (bookies odds) which itself is ultimately a combination of an expert's opinion (the odd-setter or whatever) and the average opinion of the betting public. This combo of public opinion and expert opinion (to make the bookies odds) brings an interesting 'third factor' into the form and fixture discussion, and results simply in a different but valuable insight

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      1. Eskimooo
        10 years, 25 days ago

        i agree entirely fever

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      2. Sciolist
        10 years, 25 days ago

        Odds aren't based on the average opinion of the betting public any more. And they aren't based on what a trader thinks. They're based on what the bookies models state. And that model takes form and fixture into account.

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  21. jonnoinnit
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Nice one - thanks! Will be monitoring this method along with Net Gains' Magnificent 7 formula...

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  22. Raul Seleccion
    10 years, 25 days ago

    bookies actually have Austin Wallie and Nolito way likelier to score than Firmino or Son

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    1. Eskimooo
      10 years, 25 days ago

      probably not far wrong

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    2. QPR expects... glory!
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Yes, but the first line made it clear the six were chosen from 'popular captaincy options'

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  23. roganyosh
    10 years, 25 days ago

    I worked as a football trader and the odds compiled do not account for many factors minutes wise etc. The fixtures mainly are going to be overly weighted with this system. Most of the odds are protective on the most dangerous players also systematically. Even players that arent playing or are out of form but playing striker will be place at 'protected' prices. It will also certainly never account for the likely minutes of that player. E.g. in a given England game Sturridge will be a very low odds to score against a weak team but may be highly likely to be substituted yet this won't at all be accounted for. I've had a fair bit of wine so I hope this makes sense. (Long time lurker)

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  24. Twelve years a slave
    10 years, 25 days ago

    The bookies odds already factor in form and fixtures.
    Instead of including those categories which are already
    covered by the odds maybe an assist category should be added instead.

    Maybe the assists immenent table? without previous assisters being excluded

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  25. COYS Down Under
    10 years, 25 days ago

    I'd love to see how the odds actually correlate to final results.

    Also once we have more data for this season I'd rather see the last 4 away/home results used than last 4 overall. Teams produce such different results depending on where they are playing.

    Triggerlips is correct as well, assists matter. Some of those players are not likely to assist compared to others.

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  26. El-Kloppico
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Great! I have my (c) on Costa since 2 days..
    Was on Wally but having seen him play the full match for England, put me off!

    So Costa it is then.

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  27. Dsmythy
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Only problem here is that the bookies have already factored form into their prices. Only fixtures need be added.

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    1. Dsmythy
      10 years, 25 days ago

      Only problem here is that the bookies have already factored form into their prices.

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  28. Konterxxx
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Currently on WC:

    Lloris (Pickford)
    Bellerin Koscielny Walker (Jagielka Amat)
    Son Fer OriolRomeu Sterling (Milner)
    Deeney Aguero Lukaku(C)

    Any suggestions?
    Should I transfer out anyone?

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  29. steelbangle
    10 years, 25 days ago

    Thanks for the info YMA!

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  30. PriyeshM
    10 years, 25 days ago

    I'm going for Deeney as captain - relatively easy fixture against Boro + he's been on form + is on penalty duties + he had an extra week to train with Ighalao, Perreyra and Capoue to fine tune the attacking threat.

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