Sergio Aguero is a white knight for Fantasy Football managers, always there to salvage a dire Gameweek with his goals.
Over the last two seasons, he has amassed a total of 50 strikes in the Premier League and already has two double-digit Fantasy Premier League point hauls in this campaign.
Above all, he scored a sensational nine goals across two unforgettable Gameweek 8 fixtures in 2014/15 and 2015/16, turning our seasons on their heads.
But after averaging a mere point per match across his last three Gameweeks and with speculation surrounding Pep Guardiola’s relationship with the striker, doubts are setting in.
With this in mind we ask the Burning Question – should we even consider ignoring a fit Sergio Aguero?
Simon March (2014/15 FPL Champion) says….
My dad is playing Fantasy Football for the first time this season and, while chatting about his team last weekend, he told me he was planning on transferring Aguero out, grumbling about his recent poor scores and apparent lack of value for money.
Almost by reflex, I launched into a lengthy lecture about how Aguero is the “best player in the game”, that he’s capable of scoring five goals in a single match, and, with his ever-high ownership, it’s sometimes too dangerous to even consider not captaining Aguero, let alone not having him at all.
“Owning Aguero”, I confidently declared, “is basically the cost of entry in Fantasy Football”.
As soon as the words left my mouth, though, I was hit by the memory of having said something similar about Eden Hazard early last season.
Admittedly not without good reason, Hazard had, after all, been the top-scoring player the previous season, but, on reflection, I kept faith with him a few Gameweeks too long, all despite his obviously miserable form.
It’s true that my season didn’t really get going last year until I eventually ditched him. So I wonder now if it’s ever really sensible to declare anyone ‘untouchable’, even Aguero.
But are the situations really comparable?
Yes we’ve experienced a notable drop in returns from Aguero in recent weeks but, unlike Chelsea last season, Man City aren’t currently in the midst of an epic meltdown.
Aguero will continue to get chances and, if he gets chances, he will eventually get goals. With Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace among a few decent upcoming fixtures for City and Aguero, you have to believe that this will happen sooner rather than later.
I can’t help thinking that Aguero has, in recent weeks, encountered a ‘perfect storm’ of momentum-stalling events; form-interrupting suspension, fatigue-inducing international trips leading to inconsistent starts and a succession of fixtures against three of the best defences in the league.
His returns have dipped, but with these hurdles seemingly behind him, I’m reasonably confident that Sergio will get his groove back soon. So I’ll be keeping hold, for the time being at least.
Jonty says….
To see if Aguero’s lack of Fantasy returns is indicative of poor form or just bad luck, I thought I’d delve a little deeper into his statistics using the Members Area Comparison Tool.
For this exercise, I compared his first three matches, where he scored three times, with those three, recent dire games.
In terms of goal attempts, he’s still doing fine, averaging four a game over his recent barren spell, compared to five over the start. But here’s the key factor, just 2.7 of those were in the box in the last three matches, compared to 4.3 early on this season.
Clearly, Pep Guardiola’s instructions for Aguero to broaden his game are working, to the detriment of close range shooting.
There’s further bad news.
He’s not proficient at creating chances and providing those killer passes for team-mates to score from.
Crossing, through balls, chances created and passing are all down over the latest three matches. This is worrying as, even without that close range shooting. it doesn’t look like we will have assist potential to fall back on.
Another factor to consider is that Aguero’s slump in form could be part of a wider malaise across the City squad. This is certainly a view backed by community regular F Society among others earlier in the week.
City and Aguero may well see an upturn in form, which offers hope to his owners. The Argentine’s accuracy is another cause for optimism.
Over the last three matches, half his shots have been on target, compared to just a third during those first three lucrative games.
But for 13 million, we don’t want doubts and questions marks, particularly when Harry Kane is due to return for Spurs soon with a far lower price tag.
Another blank against West Brom and I’ll be seriously considering transferring him out, focusing my City cash on Kevin De Bruyne.
Paul says…
For a number of seasons, Aguero – when fit – has been proven royalty across the Fantasy games.
So far, this year hasn’t been about his fitness.
Three sub appearances in a run of four matches would have been inconceivable during his time under Roberto Mancini or Manuel Pellegrini, yet it’s a situation we’re facing up to just two months into the Pep Guardiola era.
You can point to his unparalleled statistics over the last few years – but those were not under Guardiola.
The new manager wants a different Sergio from the one we’ve become accustomed to.
He needs his frontman to harass and press and track back to win possession from opponents. Perhaps that stray elbow into the face of Winston Reid back in Gameweek 3 was the first crack of frustration.
Yes, Aguero didn’t see red at the time and was banned retrospectively, but there’s no doubt that it was a highly unusual act from a player who has never been sent off for City.
Of course, he will continue to score when given a chance. His talent and ability to put the ball in the back of the net isn’t in question.
Perhaps, as City become more familiar with Guardiola’s approach, the Argentine will remain as essential as ever.
There is no question this recent run of team sheets needs monitoring. There’s only so much grace that nostalgia can buy you in Fantasy football, particularly for 13 million.
Mark says…
It seems strange that, having attempted to build an ill-fated strategy without Aguero last season, now I find myself attempting to build a campaign to retain his services.
There’s no doubt that this is a testing time for Aguero as a Fantasy asset.
Forget the returns and statistics for a moment; my concerns mainly surround his relationship with his manager and the role he’s being asked to play.
As I mentioned on the ScoutCast several weeks ago, Aguero’s words on Guardiola while on duty with Argentina puzzled and worried me.
Guardiola’s response on Aguero’s reaction to criticism compounded matters.
Why did such an exchange happen in the press in an age where clubs scrutinise every breath taken by managers and players. For me, the statements made were by design – loaded with intent.
Guardiola has since expressed his belief in Aguero, but I’m not entirely confident that the striker can be Pep’s player.
We know from experience and from his recent words on the Joe Hart and Claudio Bravo, that he won’t back down – there is no compromising Pep’s masterplan.
For now, I’m holding, but only because I don’t see a major benefit in taking the risk on a potential upturn in Aguero’s output.
Until Harry Kane’s return, and there’s a major improvement in fixtures for Arsenal and Spurs in defensive terms, I can’t see myself using the Aguero funds effectively.
He’s still an attacker in potential the most attacking Premier League side, and he’s still a lethal finisher who will convert opportunities that come his way. Those are facts that have convinced me to give the situation time to heal and improve.
Eventually, should my doubts remain, I will be forced to consider selling on. For now, until the concerns escalate with another couple of blanks or worrying press, I’ll be holding.
But the exit plan is already being drafted.
