This article aims to find out the best Fantasy Premier League captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining bookies odds with form and fixture.
In each of the previous five Gameweeks this method has proved successful, with Eden Hazards’ brace and an assist earning those who backed him with the armband a huge 38 point haul last time out.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 12’s best captaincy targets let’s have a quick recap on how I use odds, form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I take six popular captaincy options, according to the FFScout captaincy poll and rank them 1-6 according to their likelihood to score according to the bookies. I then give the same 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (SiB) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games.
I understand that the odds segment can sometimes heavily outweigh others (e.g. Aguero is always likely to be low odds for scoring) so I have added a fixtures and form combined only element that could be used separately if you so wished.
With that in mind let’s take a look at Gameweek 12’s results.
ODDS
| Rank | Player | Odds To Score | Implied Probability |
| 1. | Aguero | 8/15 | 65.22 |
| 2. | Lukaku | 17/20 | 54.05 |
| 3. | Defoe | 6/5 | 45.45 |
| 4. | Hazard | 6/4 | 40.00 |
| 5. | Coutinho | 15/8 | 34.78 |
| 6. | Sanchez | 11/5 | 31.25 |
FIXTURE
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded Goal attempts in the box conceded Total |
| 1. | Defoe | Hull (H) | 10 | 6 46 62 |
| 2. | Aguero | Crystal Palace (A) | 11 | 8 39 58 |
| 3. | Lukaku | Swansea (H) | 9 | 10 33 52 |
| 4. | Hazard | Middlesborough (A) | 2 | 7 27 36 |
| 5. | Coutinho | Southampton (A) | 6 | 4 25 35 |
| 6. | Sanchez | Man United (A) | 2 | 7 27 31 |
FORM
| Rank | Player | PPG | Goals | Assists |
| 1. | Hazard | 12.25 | 5 | 2 |
| 2. | Coutinho | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| 3. | Lukaku | 6.75 | 2 | 2 |
| 4.5 | Sanchez | 5.75 | 2 | 1 |
| 4.5 | Defoe | 5.75 | 2 | 1 |
| 6. | Aguero | 5.5 | 3 | 1 |
RESULTS
| Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Odds | Total Total Rank without odds factored in |
| 1. | Lukaku | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 3rd |
| 2. | Defoe | 4.5 | 1 | 3 | 8.5 2nd |
| 3.5 | Hazard | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 1st |
| 3.5 | Aguero | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 5th |
| 5. | Coutinho | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 4th |
| 6. | Sanchez | 4.5 | 6 | 6 | 16.5 6th |
ANALYSIS
Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Romelu Lukaku is the most likely to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek according to this method, with Jermain Defoe, Eden Hazard and Sergio Aguero all close behind.
Everton entertain a Swansea side who have conceded nine times in the last four, conceded the most big chances (10) in that same time period. The statistics haven’t been looking too good for the South Wales team in recent weeks.
Eden Hazard sits at the summit of the ‘total rank without odds factored in’ segment. He represents a classic form vs fixture debate this Gameweek, where the Belgium comes up against one of the league’s most in-form defensive teams in Middlesborough. A fantastic 12.25 PPG vs only two goals conceded in the last four and an impressively low seven big chances in the same time period, gives would be FPL managers looking at him for the armband, much food for thought.
Those looking for a differential, may well look towards Jermain Defoe for the armband. Sunderland host a Hull side who have conceded 10 goals in the last four and have conceded the most (46) attempts in the box in that same time period.
Any indications of Swansea and Hulls’ attacking intent (or lack of) in their respective away games this weekend could persuade the direction of the armband for FPL managers this GW.
