Bournemouth are stacked attacking wise. I've just spent the past hour researching their pre-season form, quotes from Eddie Howe, and how they finished the end of last season.

Defence
A.Smith/Francis - Francis/Cook - Ake - Daniels

The arrival of Ake puts a cloud over the starting prospects of Simon Francis (club captain), Steve Cook and Adam Smith. Potentially, Francis could fill in for Smith at RB, who missed just 2 league games last year and signed a new 4 year deal last month, but has had a few niggles this Summer. Howe on Adam Smith - “He has had some treatment and we are hopeful he will be back with us next week. We expect him to be ready for our first game at West Brom.” (http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/sport/15441906.Howe_hoping_Adam_Smith_will_be_fit_for_Hawthorns_opener)

Charlie Daniels has a reputation for being one of the most attacking fullbacks in the league, so it may come as a surprise that no defender assisted more than his team mate on the opposite flank, last season. Adam Smith matched Kyle Waker with 5 assists, while Daniels notched 3 assists (and 5 goals).

Midfield
Stanislas/Fraser - Surman/L.Cook - Arter - Pugh/Ibe

As this average position map shows in their home game vs Stoke in GW36 (http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/matches/855522) and Burnley in GW37 (http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/matches/855532), Bournemouth adopt a 4231 with Lewis Cook and Harry Arter screening the centre backs. It's worth noting that Andrew Surman sustained a medial knee ligament injury on 4th April and was first choice alongside Arter prior to that. Arter is the more ambitious of the midfield pairing but regardless, neither are worthy of fantasy investment in their DM role.

Fantasy prospects in Bournemouth's midfield are the narrow wide players and, until this season, the deep lying forward role occupied to great effect by Josh King. However, Eddie Howe has at least two options for each flank and seemingly, doesn't have a strong preference on his starting pair. No Bournemouth wide player started more than 20 games last season.

Stanislas (6m) - 5.1 PPG - appears first choice when fit, but ongoing groin trouble last season and still reports of groin and hip trouble during pre-season (http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/sport/15433149.Stanislas_could_miss_start_of_Premier_League_season). 7 goals and 5 assists in 18 starts.
Fraser (5.5m) - 3.5 PPG - increasingly used in the second half of the season returning 3 goals and 5 assists in 19 starts.
Pugh (5m) - 3.0 PPG - eventually preferred over Ibe, but returned just 2 goals and 2 assist in 16 starts.
Ibe (5m) - 1.4 PPG - the 15m signing was first choice at the beginning of last season but fell out of favour following a baron return of 0 goals and 0 assists in 13 starts. A glimmer of optimism this season, however, are goals against QPR and Estoril during pre-season.
Gradel (5m) - 0.7 PPG - frozen out last year but has appeared in pre-season and scored vs Estoril.

Fraser looks the safest pick in the absence of Stanislas (two assists vs Yeovil in pre-season worthy of note). For those looking for a punt, I can't see Howe not persisting with the £15m Ibe. If he starts him in Bournemouth's last friendly game against Napoli on Aug 6th, he could very well be worth a shot.

Front 2
King - Defoe
Backup - Afobe, Mousset and Wilson.

While King's consistent FPL returns are folklore around these parts (16 goals, 2 assists in 31 starts), it's worth noting that Eddie Howe stumbled upon playing King through the middle. Callum Wilson sustained cruciate knee ligament damage first to his right knee two seasons ago, and then to his left knee last season. With Lys Mousset, a £5.5m signing from Le Havre in July 2016, felt not to have the required fitness and intensity levels (http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/sport/15437199.New_Lys_of_life__Howe_feels_Mousset_is_ready_to_impress), Howe turned to King's pace in partnership with Afobe's physical presence.

It's fair to assume that King will be given the chance to form a new partnership with Defoe. I don't think Defoe walks into this team, however; both Afobe and Mousset have been hot in pre-season (https://www.afcb.co.uk/matches/first-team/2017-18/portsmouth-v-afc-bournemouth). It is worth considering that Defoe turns 35 in October - around a year younger than Ibrahimovic, who's performances last year were considered to have lost an edge on the brilliance that went before. Strikers rely on such fine margins that any Defoe prospector should keep a close eye on his sharpness and missed chances statistic.

I have calculated PPM last year divided by price this year to see where I can find the most value (simple analysis). I included only players that played at least 2000 minutes last year. Players changed position like King is also not included in my analysis.

From my calculations I clearly see the most value in goalkeepers and defenders. The difference between the keepers are quite small compared to the differences between the defenders. The value was bigger in the midfield compared to the forwards (in general). Therefore you could argue for a 5-4-1, but for flexibility I have chosen 4-4-2.

Based on my calculations I tried to find the team that gives me the highest PPM (last year) based on this year's prices in a 4-4-2-formation (bench: 4.0, 4.0, 4.5, 4.5). I haven't used any specific excel-formula to maximize the PPM, but tried many different combinations.

This is the team I came up with (PPM in () )

Grant (3.8)
Alonso (5.7)/Coleman (5.1)/Bertrand (4.4)/Daniels (3.9)
Alli (6.1)/Eriksen (6.1)/Mane (5.8)/Phillips (4.3)
Kane (C) (2*7.5)/Llorente (4.4)

Sum: 64.6

My conclusions based on my findings:
- No need to invest in premium keepers
- Premium defenders is good value
- The last year's Spurs and Liverpool-midfielders still good value

Sorry for long post, but maybe Interesting for some of you 🙂

Mitrovic - one to watch?

Seems a lot of people are looking for a 3rd striker that offers value. Newcastle seem to offer potential value should the popular pick Charlie Austin fail to secure a place in Southampton's starting lineup. Below I've taken preseason minutes and returns to give a simple breakdown and any information that might be useful in suggesting who starts

Opening 6 fixtures: TOT, hud, WHM, swa, STO, bri

Dwight Gayle (£6.5m)
Starts: 2
Appearances: 5
Minutes: 225
Returns: 3 goals, 1 assist

Ayoze Perez (£5.5m)
Starts: 2
Appearances: 5
Minutes: 237
Returns: 0

Aleksandar Mitrovic (£5.0m)
Starts: 3
Appearances: 5
Minutes: 225
Returns: 3 goals

Benitez opted for a 4-4-1-1 last season, with Diame or Perez in the hole and Gayle leading the line for the majority of the season (bar injury). In short, I think he will continue with this formation, though it is hard to ignore that both his strikers are firing well in preseason, where his attacking midfielders are struggling to create a spark. Ideally, if he changed to a 4-4-2, we could be onto a winner with Mitrovic.

The wingers in Ritchie, Atsu and Murphy have pace and like to cross so having a big target man like Mitrovic (6''2) who is good in the air, alongside a typical poacher in Gayle (5''8) who scored hardly any of his 23 goals last season with his head (most coming from around the 6 yard box) could stand to Newcastle's advantage early on until they sign a new striker.

Alternatively Benitez could stick to 4-4-1-1 and trial Diame in the hole with Gayle up top like last season, considering he has Shelvey and Merino to play CM. However, Benitez has used Diame deeper throughout preseason, so it seems the midfield 3 will battle for two places. In my opinion, Shelvey will get a CM spot allowing him to move forward to attack/ create, with Merino and Diame fighting for the more defensive position. Isaac Hayden is also there as an option.

Though it's possible Newcastle might trial a 3-5-2 like they worked on briefly last season, it has not been done in preseason so far. With one game remaining, hopefully the lineups and Benitez' interview can give us some indication about Mitrovic's chances of starting the new campaign.

TL;DR - Gayle is certain to start, and at £6.5m makes an easy alternative to Austin should we need a backup plan. There are a few factors that hinge on whether Mitrovic gets a place in the starting 11 that might become clear in Newcastle's last preseason match. Definitely one to watch for a mere £5.0m as that extra cash can be reinvested elsewhere.