Metrics
21 April 2018 885 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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With the curtailed Gameweek 35 now underway, our latest examination of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) metrics will focus on the Free Hit versus the no Free Hit scenario among managers currently ranked in the top 10,000.

As anticipated, the vast majority of Free Hits remaining were activated this week, making the overall usage of the chip jump from 67% to 97.9% in the top 10k. This means that this chip is now the closest to being used-up among the current top 10k.

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The only other chip that saw some significant increase in Gameweek 35 was the second Wildcard, which was activated by 4.78% of managers in the top 10k.

But in today’s analysis, we will concentrate purely on the Free Hit scenario.

With one-third of active managers playing that chip prior to the deadline, this group will doubtless appreciate a view of how they fare compared with their peers.

Similarly, the remaining managers without the chip active can also get a view of how their squads measure up.

As we revealed earlier in the week, the non-Free Hit managers had an average of 7.4 players with a Gameweek 35 fixture before the deadline.

But analysis of the latest data reveals that, as expected, these managers used their free transfers and spent points on further trades to reinforce their squads.

This group in the top 10k took an average of -3.63 points in deductions, which is the biggest “hits” figure I’ve recorded this season.

It meant that the non-Free Hit managers in the top 10k were able to field an average of 9.93 players for Gameweek 35, as detailed below.

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Around 61.5% of them could even field a squad of 10 players or more, which might suffice in keeping pace with Free Hit managers.

However, not surprisingly, the squads with the Free Hit in play avoided all points deductions and averaged 14.7 players active for Gameweek 35.

Now let’s look closer and assess the most popular selections in both the Free Hit and non-Free Hit squads.

Below is a squad made up of the most owned players selected by Free Hit managers in the top 10k.

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Meanwhile, the squad for non-Free Hit managers looks somewhat different:

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We see Mohamed Salah (99.06%) is the dominant figure in Free Hit ranks, along with Gabriel Jesus (98.09%) and Raheem Sterling (94.18%).

Indeed, Salah has a similarly high ownership (92.36%) in non-Free Hit teams.

However, with a blank in Gameweek 34, many non-Free Hit managers were forced to spend points to acquire Jesus and Sterling.

As a result, they are found in just 49.08% and 58.2% of squads respectively.

Their output tomorrow against Swansea City already looks to be crucial in the shake-up among the top 10k managers.

There are other disparities that create a cast of players key to the success of the Free Hit.

Players like Leighton Baines, Hector Bellerin, Kevin De Bruyne and Alexandre Lacazette are far from common factors in non-Free Hit squads.

To examine this further, here is a table of the most owned players in Free Hit teams versus their ownership in the non-Free Hit squads among the top 10k.

Player Free Hit Ownership non Free Hit Ownership Total Top 10k Ownership
Mohamed Salah 99.06% 92.36% 94.43%
Gabriel Jesus 98.09% 49.08% 64.23%
Raheem Sterling 94.18% 58.20% 69.32%
Wilfried Zaha 82.24% 17.53% 37.53%
Kevin Long 68.78% 15.92% 32.26%
Alexandre Lacazette 63.93% 2.11% 21.22%
Leighton Baines 62.31% 3.20% 21.47%
Sadio Mané 59.75% 9.13% 24.78%
Jack Butland 43.09% 1.11% 14.09%
Héctor Bellerín 33.19% 2.84% 12.22%
Virgil van Dijk 31.87% 14.68% 19.99%
Kevin De Bruyne 30.54% 7.61% 14.70%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 28.63% 51.47% 44.41%
Jordan Pickford 27.79% 6.67% 13.20%
Ayoze Pérez 24.17% 8.39% 13.27%
Leroy Sané 23.71% 16.01% 18.39%
Shkodran Mustafi 22.29% 17.56% 19.02%
Xherdan Shaqiri 22.00% 12.61% 15.51%
Luka Milivojevic 21.51% 41.66% 35.43%
James Tomkins 19.93% 7.63% 11.43%
Ragnar Klavan 19.61% 0.94% 6.71%
Matthew Lowton 17.63% 26.78% 23.95%
Wayne Hennessey 17.63% 12.78% 14.28%
Mesut Özil 17.18% 1.65% 6.45%
James Milner 16.98% 0.23% 5.41%
Patrick van Aanholt 16.37% 2.04% 6.47%
Nacho Monreal 16.05% 9.16% 11.29%
Roberto Firmino 16.05% 43.19% 34.80%
Nicolás Otamendi 14.36% 36.56% 29.70%
Marko Arnautovic 13.46% 15.73% 15.03%
Peter Crouch 13.33% 0.83% 4.69%
Nick Pope 13.07% 24.24% 20.79%
Cenk Tosun 12.62% 4.24% 6.83%
Ashley Barnes 12.26% 22.81% 19.55%
David Silva 9.90% 14.99% 13.42%

 

The table highlights that the majority of the selected players in the Free Hit squads show low ownership in non-Free Hit line-ups.

Already today, many non-Free Hit managers will have been hugely relieved at Wilfried Zaha’s blank at Watford given the big disparity in ownership. Some 82.4% of the top 10k Free Hit managers fielded the Eagles winger, compared with 17.5% of the rest of the top 10k.

There are, of course, more opportunities to come with tomorrow’s fixtures.

However, there are also some players who could prove key figures for those without the Free Hit active.

Of these, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (51.47% compared to 28.63%), Nicolás Otamendi (36.56% compared to 14.36%) and David Silva (14.99% compared to 9.9%) look poised to make the most impact.

These major differentials will surely decide how Gameweek 35 affects the current top 10k rankings.

It will be fascinating to carry out a post-mortem on the results and compare these to the impact of the Free Hit chip back in Gameweek 31, when we saw the previous set of reduced fixtures.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a look at each of the Premier league sides most represented in both groups of managers.

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As we can see, every Free Hit manager in the top 10k opted for three Manchester City players. Meanwhile, the non-Free Hit manager has an average of 2.1.

It’s a similar story for Liverpool, with an average of 2.8 players in Free Hit active squads, compared with 2.1 in the rest.

While major Liverpool assets blanked today, it’s essentially Man City and Arsenal (2.1 vs 1.0 players) options that seem likely to decide the gap between the Free Hit and the non-Free Hit managers.

885 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Baked baines
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    So after today’s performance’s. Salah at home to stoke will gain the captaincy over Kane at home to Watford!

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Provided the Anfield Express keeps rolling by ......

      1. n-doggg
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        This

      2. The Point About It Is
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        the express train gave me three Liv starters, shame they fluffed their lines.

    2. Je suis le chat
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Hopefully we'll know the teamsheet in advance to make the call.

    3. BobBradleysOpportunity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      if salah doesn't get rested in between the roma games ill be very annoyed as a pool fan

    4. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Really hoping for a Salah benching. Have went from 50k > 19K since selling him but 1 big haul and that could be reversed. If the leaked team has him starting I'll consider a hit to get him back

      1. BobBradleysOpportunity
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        then you'll have 10.5 mil tied up for a double gameweek when salah only plays once, away, at stamford bridge

        1. Bob McMayday
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          I know but he's so highly owned and the damage he could do to OR is huge. I've benefitted from selling him but feel lucky and haven't enjoyed hiding behind the sofa. In DGW 34 I was happy with my players that scored around 10 points. Salah can do that in a single GWK even against Chelsea

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Firmino is finished as FpL pick

    2. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      phewwwwwwwwww
      thought he is injured ...

  2. Baked baines
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    In all fairness AnEx has been very accurate!!! Will look closely to the nex line up!!

  3. mrwinner
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Lukaku to Kane (-4) ? Kane could easily bag a hat-trick v Watford at home

    1. BobBradleysOpportunity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      ugh, im a reluctant kane owner, and likely captainer, very concerned about his form, he looks slow, tired and off form

  4. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    My team for nxt wk looks meh without a bit if arsenal/city

  5. BobBradleysOpportunity
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    hello, did something come out about arsenal team sheet tomorrow, i noticed some complaining on this earlier that arsene may be giving some youngsters a chance

      1. BobBradleysOpportunity
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        thanks, that clarifies, i made the wrong choice on auba

        1. MTPockets
          8 years, 3 months ago

          I'm hoping it's wrong - can't see Ozil in any pics.

        2. inoxxxxx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          lets just wait and see before starting to mourn. Give me one good reason a multi million pound signing, who’s on fire and nit eligible to play in europe, would not play in the league?!
          EL dry run, really? And risk fatigue and especially injuries just because?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      well it wasn't what you read, ppl are saying it'll be a dry run of the team for the EL so a lot think Auba benched

      1. BobBradleysOpportunity
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        aye, i heard wenger's pressers, but thought there may have been recent developments!

        1. kennethrhcp
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          oh I may have missed them if there was!

  6. agueroooooney
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Lukaku -> Jesus for free?

    1. Je suis le chat
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I'll probably do it if Jesus does well this gw.

    2. Ryanu2
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Yes Ive done the same move Jesus looks nailed on

  7. Vlad Tepes
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    How was Kane today?

    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Didn't play

    2. Valencia's Left Foot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Just saw highlights but looked sluggish and missed a decent chance. I'll probably reluctantly captain him next week. Unless Jesus tears it up tomorrow. Then I'll bring him in for Kaku.

    3. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Very poor.

    4. Ryanu2
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Pretty poor Dosent look sharpn

  8. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Whats with all the price rises tonight??

    1. n-doggg
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      FHs triggered this morning knocking the predictions outs?

  9. VDiesel26
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Bear with me... Ranked 20kish but thinking of taking a -12 this week to try and sort my team out for upcoming GWs

    Alonso Ryan Gross Barnes (Have DDG) to Vert Sterling 3.9m GK + 4.5m ST (Leaves 0.2m ITB)

    Pros: Save 0.2m on Alonso / Gross going down tonight, Gross very poor fixtures. Ryan/Barnes no need until end of season
    Cons: -12...

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Cons: unable to use press conferences to inform decisions

  10. kennethrhcp
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    I've had Maguire since wk3... was going to keep for WHU & ARS in 37 but can afford Smalling instead of him... my fear is Jose will rotate & Maguire is always dangerous in the other box

    so for 37:
    A: Maguire
    B: Smalling

  11. Forza Papac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    RIP Minie me

    1. Forza Papac
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Mini*

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      😮

      Rip

  12. F4L
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Cardiff will be one of the worst sides in PL history if they don't sign a plethora of quality players in the summer

  13. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Auba hinting that he's starting tomorrow?
    https://twitter.com/Aubameyang7/status/987784872558256134?s=19

    1. Chucky
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Auba Starting 😎

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      fingers crossed!

    3. Point-one short
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Ffs

    4. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      as Aguero once.. 😉

      1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        This. Maybe he replaces Laca at 61 mins for all we know.

  14. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Non FH rival has two burnley defenders and Mee who will hardly start.

    I soooo want a Stoke goal tomorrrow ppl!!!!!!.

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Shaq is on it don't worry

    2. Point-one short
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Shaq attack.

  15. Fantastisk
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    What to do with Bailly, the disappearing man.

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      must have a niggle, best CB at the club

  16. Emiliano Sala
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Which move?
    A) vvd to davies/vertonghen
    B) mahrez to alli

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      chips left would have an impact but A from above

      1. kennethrhcp
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        with Vert imo

  17. Point-one short
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Which of these makes way for Sterling?

    A) Mahrez
    B) Willian
    C) Lingard
    D) Son

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      C

    2. Fantastisk
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Son I am disappoint

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      If you also have Salah you could wait and see if there is a leaked team before Saturday. If there as and Salah isn't starting I'd be tempted to get rid for Sterling

      1. Point-one short
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Salah's gone already, but thanks all.

    4. Valencia's Left Foot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Same dilemma with Pogba, not Lingz. Leaning Son due to end of season rotation. Although same can be said for the rest, I guess. Probably bring Sterling in for the double.

    5. Ryanu2
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      William for me

  18. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Gudmunsson likely to play tomorrow? Or rested?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Hopefully plays!

      1. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Nikka hell yeah! Cant afford another benching. He looked good against Chelsea

    2. TallestJohn
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think he'll play, kept him on FH. Arfield and Brady still out. Not sure if no word on Nkoudou means he'll be back or still injured but if he's not available Gudmundsson and Lennon will be the only wingers again.

      1. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Sounds good! Cheers fellas

    3. HamezMace
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      He should play after his performance against Chelsea

  19. Frank Koscielny
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Jesus cappers, how are you feeling about your captaincy choice now that Salah ended up with 7 points?

    1. Valencia's Left Foot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I'm a Salah captainer and think Jesus is the stronger position at this point.

    2. Fantastisk
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Triggered

      1. WE ARE RANGERS
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I have Sterling and feeling good about it. 7 points was the minimum you would be happy with from your captain

  20. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Jesus auditioning tomorrow for TC chip Gw37...

    Kane’s fitness very worrying

    1. Fantastisk
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      He looked like he couldn't even breathe through his nose!

    2. MTPockets
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah leaving somewhat of transfer dilemma.

    3. My Name Is Prince
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      This! Jesus TC looking more likely by the minute!

  21. the snazzy viking
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    safe to do Alonso to Otamendi tonight to afford Lukaku to Kane too? exact cash if Kane falls

    1. Ragabolly
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Do you think Ota is the safest City defender? I am in a similar dilemma

      1. the snazzy viking
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Think so, and great goal threat too

        1. Ragabolly
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Then do it

          1. the snazzy viking
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Cheers, think it's a gamble worth taking

      2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Look at his minutes

    2. Frank Koscielny
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      What about Kompany?

      1. the snazzy viking
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Not as nailed imo

  22. Frank Koscielny
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Kompany nailed on for rest of the season?

  23. JONALDINHO
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    What would you consider your first FPL season? This has been the first year where I was active for the whole season. Last year I didn’t play for around 12GW-22GW but played rest of the season. So is this actually my first?

    1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      This is your second

      1. JONALDINHO
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Thx

  24. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Kane and Jesus combined for 48 points in DGW37 last year. So I'm predicting they'll combine for 14 this time.

  25. _Make
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Which of these three geographic and chronological contemporaries has had the best career?

    Jordan Henderson,
    Lee Cattermole
    or Adam Johnson?

    I'm going for Henderson.

  26. EL_FENOMENO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Who to keep Alonso or Willian or neither

  27. FPLShaqiri
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    How are Alonso owners feeling? Can't decide what to do with him. I have Chilwell, Vert and double Burnley defence so I can bench him this week, but also tempted to cash in and get a Man City mid for a hit.

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I have Bailly and Alonso, so Alonso gets to stay. Baily > [City Defender] probably.

      1. Ragabolly
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        I have them both too but think I am selling alonso first

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Blimey! Had Bailly through these rotten few weeks, too?

    2. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think my priority is getting Salah in this week, but need to wait until CL result comes in to decide

      I'd like to sell Alonso, but not sure who to get!

    3. Point-one short
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Think I'm keeping. Limited transfers and other fish to fry.

    4. Ryanu2
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Im sticking with him despite poor points in last couple of months Hoping for an end of season points fest

  28. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Glad I didn't pay for the Amir Khan fight on PPV

  29. Flynny
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    I'm a handful of points ahead of my rival.

    He has kane but no salah.

    Should that have a bearing on who I captain next week?

    Do I just captain salah if confirmed he starts?...or cover him by going with kane?

    1. Ryanu2
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Go with Salah if he plays Kane looking way off form