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Scout Reports

Jahanbakhsh offers FPL goal potential – but must first outshine Gross

Brighton and Hove Albion have broken their transfer record with the capture of winger Alireza Jahanbakhsh from Dutch side AZ Alkmaar.

The Iranian international, who featured for his country at the World Cup in Russia, has joined the Seagulls for a reported £17m and has signed a five-year contract with the south coast club.

Jahanbakhsh finished last season as the top goal-scorer in the Eredivisie, with two hat-tricks in his final three matches for AZ helping him to a total of 21 league goals. The Iranian midfielder also registered 12 assists in 2017/18.

Jahanbakhsh was Chris Hughton’s tenth signing of the summer – no Premier League coach has been busier during the current transfer window.

Fantasy Premier League have listed the 24-year-old winger as a £7.0m-rated midfielder, meanwhile, the same as Pascal Gross.

Predominantly occupying the right flank, Jahanbakhsh’s ability to play in a variety of positions was highlighted by his new manager upon signing for the club:

Ali is a player that we have been aware of and monitored for a few years, and his versatility will increase our attacking options within the squad.

He can play in a wide position or central midfield attacking role, and I am now very much looking forward to working with him.

Should Jahanbakhsh take up his preferred position on the right flank, as expected, then the move will likely spell bad news for Anthony Knockaert (£5.5m), who occupied that role in Hughton’s side for much of 2017/18. Jahanbakhsh’s arrival also blocks another route into the side for Jurgen Locadia (£5.5m), who was fielded on the right wing on three occasions after his January move from PSV Eindhoven.

The History

Born in Gilan in August 1993, Jahanbakhsh spent his formative years playing for youth sides in the city of Qazvin before his first taste of senior football with Damash Tehran in the Iranian third tier.

Moving to affiliated club Damash Gilan in 2011, Jahanbakhsh made 44 league appearances in the top flight of Iranian football and scored ten goals across two seasons.

Still only 19, Jahanbakhsh was presented with a move to Europe when Dutch side NEC Nijmegen snapped up the teenage prospect on a three-year deal.

Making 27 appearances (16 as a substitute) in his debut season in the Eredivisie, Jahanbakhsh scored on five occasions – including a brace in the 2-2 draw with Ajax on the final day of the regular season – and set up a further four goals as NEC were relegated from the Dutch top flight following a play-off defeat to Sparta Rotterdam.

A superb campaign in the Eerste Divisie – in which the Iranian winger scored 12 goals, recorded 17 assists and won the Dutch second tier’s Player of the Year award – attracted the interest of AZ, who signed Jahanbakhsh in August 2015.

Two promising seasons in the Eredivisie preceded his headline-making campaign of 2017/18 and the Iranian international departed for the Premier League having registered 34 goals and 27 assists during his three seasons with AZ.

Jahanbakhsh at AZ
Season Appearances Starts Goals Assists
2015/16 23 21 3 6
2016/17 29 25 10 9
2017/18 33 33 21 12

 

Featuring for his homeland in both the 2014 and 2018 World Cups, Jahanbakhsh has 41 caps and four international goals to his name.

The Prospects

Goals and assists from the Brighton right flank were conspicuous by their absence in 2017/18. Despite having more attempts on goal and penalty box touches than Pascal Gross last season, Anthony Knockaert finished the season with just three league goals to his name. The French winger recorded just one solitary assist, meanwhile.

Knockaert’s chance creation rate was also poor: the 26-year-old midfielder made a key pass just once every 76 minutes.

Jahanbakhsh’s arrival, then, should fill Brighton fans with much optimism given the Iranian’s eye-catching numbers from last season.

The winger’s underlying attacking statistics in 2017/18 compare very favourably with those of his new colleagues, too, as the table below highlights.

Jahanbakhsh vs Brighton midfielders – a 2017/18 comparison
Player Minutes per goal attempt Minutes per chance created
Jahanbakhsh 19.7 35
Knockaert 52.7 76
Gross 67 36
Izquierdo 38.2 95

 

The 34 goals Brighton scored in the Premier League last season was the fourth-lowest total in the top flight. With over half of those strikes scored by either Glenn Murray, who turns 35 this season, or Pascal Gross, whose total of seven goals flattered his minutes-per-chance mean, Jahanbakhsh’s arrival will hopefully alleviate some of that goal-scoring burden.

Jahanbakhsh’s total of 144 shots was identical to the amount recorded by Mohamed Salah last season and registered over fewer minutes, too; the Iran international’s minutes-per-chance rate bettered that of the Egyptian’s as a result. Brighton’s record signing hit the target on 62 occasions, a figure only inferior to Salah among FPL midfielders in 2017/18.

Sixty-six of Jahanbakhsh’s efforts on goal were from inside the box, while 16 of them were deemed “big chances”.

Eden Hazard and Wilfried Zaha were the only Premier League midfielders last season to complete more successful take-ons than Jahanbakhsh managed (111) in the Eredivisie.

The Iranian winger’s chance creation average (one every 35 minutes) also bested that of Pascal Gross, whose rate of key passes was among the best in the FPL budget/mid-price midfielder bracket. No Premier League midfielder created more big chances than Jahanbakhsh (21) supplied for AZ, meanwhile.

The huge, glaring caveat to Jahanbakhsh’s numbers last season is that they were all recorded in the Dutch top flight. From Afonso Alves at Middlesbrough to Siem de Jong at Newcastle United, many a high-achieving forward or midfielder in the Eredivisie has flopped upon their move to the Premier League. While it would grossly unfair to fully judge Jurgen Locadia yet, Brighton fans and FPL managers need only look to the Seagulls’ January capture from PSV (nine goals and six assists for Eindhoven prior to his move, one goal and an assist for Hughton’s side in a stop-start spell since then) to acknowledge how difficult a transition the step up can be.

The fact that Brighton can already offer us a tried-and-tested midfield option for £7.0m in the shape of Pascal Gross means there seems little to be gained by taking a punt on Jahanbakhsh while he is still unproven in the Premier League – particularly at that price.

That Gross will once again be on set-piece duties this season – only one of the 80 chances that Jahanbakhsh created for AZ last season was from a dead-ball situation – and has seemingly usurped Glenn Murray as Brighton’s first-choice penalty taker furthers the German midfielder’s case.

The Seagulls’ tricky-looking start to 2018/19, in which they play last season’s top four in the first seven Gameweeks, is likely to deter Fantasy investment in the Brighton squads anyway and gives us the opportunity to assess Jahanbakhsh’s worth as a mid-price midfielder before their fixtures take a turn for the better in Gameweek 8. Given his goal involvement potential and the prospect of his game being well-reflected on the Bonus Points System (key passes, “big chance” creation and successful take-ons all being rewarded with BPS points), then Jahanbakhsh is one to monitor for the medium-term.

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562 Comments Post a Comment
  1. red_lfc
    • 5 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Hi guys hows this looking for the new season.
    Ederson / stekelenburg

    Cedric / alonso / davies / daniels / wan bissaka

    Salah/ eriksen/ sane/ iwobi/ delofeuo

    Jimenez / firminho / zaha
    Any think to improve it? 3.4.3 or 3.5.2 or 4.3.3 gives me options to play different formations.

    1. Beatle
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 17 hours ago

      Alonso - reverse OOP
      Davies - rotation risk
      Daniels - rotation risk
      Iwobi - rotation risk
      Jimenez - poor goal threat

  2. JamieC180
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Which do I go for?

    A) Bailly, Robertson, Sane, Martial
    B) Alexander-arnold/Ward, Shaw, Mahrez, Eriksen

  3. stat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Anyone else struggling to fit in premium defenders (bar Robertson) and premium attackers?
    Not including players who are unlikely to start in GW 1 due to the WC:

    Premium defenders:
    - Mourinho rotated Bailly last season in order to "start players who are going to the WC" but many people think this was a lie, and Bailly is quite injury prone. Bailly is therefore not nailed on. Smalling could lose his place to Lindelof/Jones? Shaw might play a couple of games but he's nowhere near nailed on.
    - Mendy is coming back from a serious injury and I'm guessing that Pep will probably manage his minutes.
    - Coleman's fixtures are great but Silva's teams don't keep many clean sheets. Everton's defence is rubbish too.
    - We don't know what Emery's preferred CB pairing is, and he has a history of rotating his full backs. Terrible first two games too.
    - Spurs full-backs are rotation risks as usual.
    - Azpilicueta is probably nailed on but I'm not sure how much of an attacking threat he'll have under Sarri. At 6.5 he's probably a risk seeing as we don't know how Chelsea will perform under a new system.
    - VVD a decent pick in isolation but takes away a valuable Liverpool spot provided that you have/plan to have any of Robertson / Mane / Salah / Firmino.
    - PvA a fantastic option going forward but it's hard to justify putting him in your team when there are nailed on Palace defenders who cost less than he does.

    Premium attackers:
    - Auba's first two fixtures are terrible - mci, CHE
    - Aguero's minutes are under threat from Jesus.
    - Laca/Firmino not as expensive as the other two but Arnie at 7m seems like better value based on PPM.

    1. stat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      MCI, che for Auba*

    2. Berbinho's Forehead
      • 8 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Just my opinion but I think Mendy and Bavies are exceptional picks. Great value for money and I can see both starting from GW1 onwards.

      In terms of Mendy's readiness, the community shield will be a good indicator.

      1. stat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 months, 1 day ago

        Once Rose is back I'm sure that Davies won't be starting every week as Pochettino has pretty much always had a policy of rotating his full backs at Spurs.

        1. Berbinho's Forehead
          • 8 Years
          9 months, 1 day ago

          Unfortunately Rose is going through some issues, which he has spoken about. So maybe he might have an extended break, and rightly so. He did miss several games last season without Poch giving an explanation.

          1. stat
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            9 months, 1 day ago

            Good call. Davies played as a CB in the last friendly though.

            1. Berbinho's Forehead
              • 8 Years
              9 months, 1 day ago

              Pretty sure Sanchez partners someone that's not Ben Davies in GW1.

              1. stat
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                9 months, 1 day ago

                Probably, but putting Davies in my team still makes me feel uneasy because I have no idea when Rose will be back in contention. Gone for Robertson + starting two of AWB, Bamba, Tomkins, Cedric every week at the moment.

    3. Business Cat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Maguire at 5.5m will be in everyone's team if he goes to United

      1. stat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 months, 1 day ago

        It's all fun and games until Mourinho rotates Maguire

        1. Business Cat
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          9 months, 1 day ago

          After paying 80m beans...surely not

          As long as he doesn't start with haircuts and dabbing he'll be fine 😉

          1. stat
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            9 months, 1 day ago

            Paid 34m for Bailly which was significant money pre-Neymar

            1. Business Cat
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              9 months, 1 day ago

              Mourinho's looking for players he likes. Once he's found them, he'll stick with them.

              I don't think he trusts any of Smalling, Jones, Bailly, Lindelof, Rojo, Blind (if he's still there), Shaw...they rotate because his has to put out a defence of some description, but doesn't really care for any of them.

              Contrast with Ashley Young and Antonio Valencia...they play every game when fit.

              Like at Chelsea under him...the likes of Terry, Ivanovic, Azpi never went anywhere...defence was settled.

              Maybe Maguire will be his new John Terry

              1. stat
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                9 months, 1 day ago

                That is a good point. Hopefully they bring someone like Maguire in because a Man Utd defender seems like a steady source of points.

      2. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 months, 1 day ago

        That’s for sure

    4. MysticMac17
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Very good post, completely agree. Theres just one point I want to note. Azpi was the highest scoring defender last season playing as a right sided centre back as part of a back 3 with wing backs. Sarri will play 4-3-3 this season as we all are aware and Azpi will be the right back so surely he would in fact pose more threat from that position and have more attacking potential than last season. Hes definitely one I'm monitoring but I'm hoping one of Luiz/Christensen nail down a spot so a 5.5 option appears or else hoping Chelsea get Schmeichel or Pickford as a 5.0 keeper would be good too.

      Arnie is very much on my radar, but I will probably not start with him because of fixtures. I'm going with Auba. Even though he will be playing left wing, hes incredibly consistent unlike Lacazette who can blow hot and cold, but who knows under Emery I guess.

      I'm probably gonna go with Gomez to start the season as my Pool defender (seeing as Matip is injured, Lovren will be back late and Klavan isnt fancied). He should start the season at centre back, after which point I will change to Lovren if he is dropped. I also have Salah and Mane.

      I'm probably gonna start the season with Ben Davies and use him as a placeholder for Mendy as I'm not sure if he will start regularly as I dont know what formation Pep will use (he rotated last season between 4-3-3 and 5-3-2)

      1. stat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 months, 1 day ago

        Thanks for the clarification about Azpi. Chelsea in general are surely a team to monitor as a lot of bargains could present themselves - Pedro at 6.5 also comes to mind.

        Arnie's fixtures are really not *that* bad (liv BOU ars WOL eve CHE) and West Ham didn't seem to struggle to score goals against tougher opponents last season, and they're likely to do even better this season with Pellegrini coming in and improving their attacking options.

        Although Auba is consistent against lesser opponents, last season the only two games he blanked in were against Spurs and Man City (against whom he missed a penalty). That's obviously a very small sample size but Arsenal generally struggle against big sides and it remains to be seen whether Emery will be able to change that. I do think he's a better option than Laca though, even at 1.5m more.

        Gomez + Davies are in all likelihood going to start in GW 1, but isn't it risky to plan transfers beforehand? Something else might pop up and you may end up having to take a hit to get rid of Davies (once Rose is back) and/or Gomez (once Lovren is back).

  4. HaydenXL
    • 1 Year
    9 months, 1 day ago

    RMT please 🙂 changed it again lol

    Ederson
    Robbo/Mendy/Shaw/Wan-Bissaka
    Salah/Sane/Neves/Sanchez
    Arnie/Auba

    Obviously the bench is rubbish

    Any feed back or thoughts would be great 🙂

    1. A message to you Rudi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Haha dito. Very similar team so i guess i have to like it. Strong. Only Neves im not overly keen on but the rest looks good.

      1. HaydenXL
        • 1 Year
        9 months, 1 day ago

        yeh i was in the same boat with neves also, thanks for the feedback

  5. RomeluStormzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Sane is worrying me. Will he start?

    1. Berbinho's Forehead
      • 8 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Should do. GW1 for sure. He destroyed Bellerin several times last season. Twice in a week.

    2. A message to you Rudi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      I reckon so. Had a nice break. Fit and rareing to go.

    3. stat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      He's also worrying me but as long as Pep doesn't go back to 3-5-2 he should start a lot, seeing as he's probably City's best LW

  6. A message to you Rudi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    RMT.

    Patricio
    Robertson PVA Shaw Cedric
    Salah(C) Sanchez Sanè Richarlison
    Aubameyang Arnsutovic

    Crap Bench 🙂
    Speroni | Bennett | Kamara | Masuaku

    How we looking?

    1. HaydenXL
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 1 day ago

      GTG, i like the team, pretty much like mine, like you said 😉

    2. Gringo Kid
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Dont like it, you've sacrificed defence. No balance at all

  7. Berbinho's Forehead
    • 8 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Chelsea signing one of Pickford, Schmeichel or Heaton would be highly appreciated.

    1. A message to you Rudi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Schmeichel would be a good fit i would have thought..

  8. stat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Fulham linked with Mawson
    Hopefully he comes in at 4.5m

    1. Berbinho's Forehead
      • 8 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      So are Burnley. Most likely 5m.

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Not a chance. Will be 5.0 wherever he goes.

  9. Pieterke30
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Asking again - Absolutely no love for Bernardo Silva here?

    As good a punt as Mahrez, right? And for 1.5 less.

    Bilva is not nailed, I know, but it is defo too early to assume Mahrez is, right? So why pay more for him?

    NB: Mahrez currently is in my tea but having second thoughts.

    1. CamperDudes
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      There's just so many options in City's attack and Bilva is probably the least threatening.

    2. Nailed Jesus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 1 day ago

      2 goals and 2 assists from 21 substitute appearances last season. Think of how many 1 pointers he's gonna get you!

      1. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 months, 15 hours ago

        Im not talking abt owning all season, just staring with him instead of Mahrez

        1. Andy_Social
          • 6 Years
          9 months, 14 hours ago

          I agree; he's flying under the radar. I'd have thought the first couple of GWs will feature Mahrez, Sane and Bilva; although Bilva is significantly cheaper, everyone is focusing on the first two.

        2. Nailed Jesus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          8 months, 28 days ago

          That puts him in the same category as Lamela, Moura, Martial, Mata, Shaw, Davies etc. and I guess you want to have max of 2 from this category. That's probably why people aren't so keen.

  10. CamperDudes
    • 2 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Would you have Zaha in GW 1 and then switch Arnie in GW 2? Or is that a waste of a transfer?

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 15 hours ago

      Waste

      I have both from the start

  11. Fire Chief Moe
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    LFC pre Man United match can be live streamed here : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfdx_LNI9t8&feature=youtu.be

    1. ONSIDE 9
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      Training, match is tomorrow

      1. Fire Chief Moe
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        9 months, 1 day ago

        Correct, thats why i said, pre.

        1. ONSIDE 9
          • 5 Years
          9 months, 1 day ago

          Ah sorry, I read that as 'per season match'

          1. Fire Chief Moe
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            9 months, 1 day ago

            No worries, it could have been clearer.

    2. Deulofale
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      VVD DOWN!

  12. vanelvan
    • 2 Years
    9 months, 23 hours ago

    DDG
    Robo - Coleman - Cedric
    Salah - Cavaleiro - Richarlison - Sane - Deulofeu
    Auba - Firmino

    Fabianski - Tomkins - Peltier - Kamara

    is it GTG? i think its more balance

  13. colin1201
    • 7 Years
    9 months, 19 hours ago

    Hi everyone.

    Want to hear your thoughts.

    Mikhi/ Richarlison/ Aguero

    or

    Mikhi/ Sane/ Tosun