Great Expectations

Wood can offer value as key Burnley goal threat

Chris Wood (£6.5m) has the opportunity to be a cost-effective third striker in Fantasy Premier League this season.

His underlying data suggests that a clear run in the team without injuries that restricted him in 2017/18 can bring out his best.

In our latest Great Expectations piece we assess the case for trusting Wood with a place in our squads.

TOP CLARET

Our recent research into the Burnley squad showed that Wood is the club’s most dangerous goal threat for 2018/19. In the most recent campaign, no Clarets player averaged more shots in the box per game (1.5), touched the ball as many times in the penalty area (3.1) or had a higher goal conversion (25.6) than the New Zealand international. Ashley Barnes (£6.0m) was the only one of his team-mates to average more shots, but Wood still outscored him 10 league goals to nine.

STRONG FINISH

In the back-end of last season, Wood was boasting form that kept pace with some of the Premier League’s heavy hitters. After recovering from a knee injury to return in Gameweek 29, only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) and Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) found the net more often than the Burnley man’s six times. Even more impressive was that Wood achieved that feat in fewer starts too, his seven comparing with Vardy’s nine and Aubameyang’s 10.

Over the aforementioned period, Wood ranked seventh for shots, was joint third for efforts on target and joint-fourth for goal conversion among players who had taken at least 10 shots. But crucially, only Aubameyang was afforded more big chances out of forwards.

CLEAR RUN

Wood’s first season at Turf Moor did not exactly run smoothly. Two injuries throughout the campaign limited him to just 24 starts, but a break over the summer has helped him get back to full fitness – in time to assist Sam Vokes (£5.5m) against Aberdeen in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Barnes has struggled with blisters over pre-season allowing Wood to string together some early consistency in the team.

Having a full season of starts in Lancashire should unlock Wood’s potential, considering his minutes per goal data from 2017/18 was so impressive. He averaged a goal every 163.3 minutes, almost the same as Vardy’s 162.8, who finished as the second-highest scoring forward in FPL. Romelu Lukaku (£11.0m) and Roberto Firmino (£9.5m) were among the bigger names below Wood in this respect, with 179.3 and 185.1 minutes per goal respectively.

The only thing to be wary of is that Burnley’s involvement in Europe could trigger more rotation at Turf Moor than before, although manager Sean Dyche tends to avoid it where he can.

RUB OF THE GREEN

Burnley have a very favourable start to the 2018/19 season when it comes to the fixtures, which can often prove a factor in having a good overall season. With the exception of Manchester United in Gameweek 4, every match in the first eight Gameweeks for the Clarets is against a team that finished outside of the Premier League’s top 10 last season. Watford, Bournemouth and Huddersfield will all come to Turf Moor, as will United, while trips to Southampton, Fulham, Wolves and Cardiff could all yield goals for Burnley and Wood.

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2,535 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ooooo
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Ederson
    Robbo Bailly Cedric
    Salah mane Sane Jota Cairney
    Auba Arnie

    4.0 Tomkins Bennett Kamara

    Not sure about Sane Cairney and Cedric

    What changes should I make?

    1. ljuta zena
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      why not for Sane?

      1. ooooo
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Not sure if he really is worth extra over Mahrez and the Silvas when none of them are nailed

    2. Kambo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Aubama and Cedric/Tomkins VS Laca and Mendy? with Aubama playing outwide and Laca playing that central role he could really make the most of the opportunity there getting plenty of chances in preseason. Do you think Aubama is worth the extra coin? Moving Sane down to a Pedro/Richarlison allows you the flexibility in moving Kamara to Zaha, making you have a deeper bench with Cairney there.

  2. JJO
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    So with all those players coning back late from WC plus now Matic set to miss the start of season...
    Think I will skip their defenders

  3. ToyBlader
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    best nailed defender at 5m?

    1. Do I Not Like Orange
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A Burnley one or Lovren when he returns.

    2. Clickzy
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I think TAA will be able to keep his spot after his performance last year, Shaw a risky pick and the safest option would be Tarkowski/Mee

    3. manuell888
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I'm going between TAA and tarkowski; TAA for now.

      1. Shaq Attack
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        TAA is good bet!

  4. Baberto
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Couple of doubts
    1A) coleman + mee + 0.5
    1B) coleman + shaw + 0.5
    1C) Kola + Mendy
    Have robbo and 4.5 keepers

    2A) Auba+Arni+Austin+jota+0.5
    2B)Auba+Arni+Kamara+Erikson
    Have salah and sane

    1. Baberto
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      2B) Laca for Auba

  5. Daniel Exeter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Is there a 4m playing keeper?

    1. Stoichkov#8
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      few played in preseason but none are first choice

  6. Stoichkov#8
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    When and why that Mendy hype begun?
    For example Robertson had wonderfull end of the season when he finally became first team player but what is the story with Mendy?

    1. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      20 points in 4 matches (1 assist & 2 CS). And he passed the eye test.

      1. Stoichkov#8
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Did he looked nailed like Robo?

        1. Karan14
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Yup was playing LWB and Sane was on the bench.

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      attacking wing back in the highest scoring team in PL, no, competition for his place, with Walker the most nailed of all the defenders (who would you pick out of the center backs), resolves issues for Pep in playing Jesus & Kun together, great stats from the games he did play last season, can play in a back four or a back 5 ....

    3. Reuser
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Can't speak for others, but before the injury last season he looked exciting and explosive and was getting into great forward positions.

      City's answer to Alonso - but with better delivery.

      One of the first names on my team sheet - although I do admit that the reasons are not 100% rational.

  7. Karan14
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Result insignificant for #mufc but preparations aren't. Valencia, Matic, Dalot, Smalling and Shaw are injured. Lukaku, Rashford, Young, Pogba, Fellaini, Lindelof, Jones and Lingard still unavailable. Sanchez and Mata the strike partnership. Squad needs strengthening urgently.

    I’d steer clear of United assets for now. Wouldn’t go near the CBs specially if they sign someone.

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks for the update

    2. Stoichkov#8
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      You may be right. Think that I hard too much to squeeze in a MU def and actually it may not be a good idea.
      Also...Shaw injured?

      1. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        All have small knocks or something. But the bigger picture is the Mourinho has himself admitted that United are in big trouble for start of the season.

  8. Clickzy
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Should've combined this question on the last page - who is you first pick for each position?

    A) Goalkeeper
    B) Defender
    C) Midfielder
    D) Forward

    Mines currently:
    Ederson
    Cedric
    Salah
    Aguero

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Patricio
      Robertson
      Salah
      Auba

    2. Baberto
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      If there's no financial restraints

      DDG
      Robbo
      Salah
      Auba

      1. timPgoodwin
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Did Robertson get any minutes last night?

        1. Clickzy
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah subbed on in the 65"

        2. Baberto
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah, got in place of Fabinho around the hour mark

  9. timPgoodwin
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Does anyone have any good sources for Sky Sports Fantasy tips?

    1. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Luke is your man. Find @disable on twitter.

      1. timPgoodwin
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Struggling to find that account ...

  10. ToyBlader
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    best nailed defender at 5.5m?

    1. SheBangsTheDrums
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      PVA

  11. manuell888
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Evening lads, mind rating the team for us?

    Patricio

    Mendy - Coleman - TAA

    Mkhi - Richarlison - Salah - Mahrez - Jota

    Auba - Firmino

    Boruc - Wan B - Kamara - Peltier

  12. timPgoodwin
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Seen Pedro scored again, how did he look and play? are we now thinking he is likely to start GW1 and beyond?

  13. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Is Richarlison the best 6.5 mid option?

  14. Chandler Bing
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone watch the Barca v Spurs?

    Eriksen worth starting with or is Lucas Moura more valuable?

    1. william prunier
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Eriksen

      1. Murder On Zidanesfloor
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Did you actually watch? I like the look of moura