Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. BigBarn
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I know Mr Monday is a believer, even against the best defense in the league, but saying that investment in the Arsenal attack "looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season" is a big stretch. It could be, but the logical money is on that being an iffy investment. First game might be high-scoring, but 0-2 is just as likely. It might be a good time to play Chelsea afterwards, but they do still have a decent defence. "Having a hunch" is different to "smart."

    Anyway, Have a great day, everyone.

    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I was going to post the same thing.

      It’s wishful thinking at best. So many better ways to spend 9.5m.

    2. Dyslexia Untied FC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      This. All day

  2. davies
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Too light?

    Patricio / 4.0
    Mendy / Robertson / Bednerak / AWB / Peltier

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Just a tad, if you can get one of your 4.0 to a nailed 4.5 it will be better

    2. zizoo10
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      it's what i got

      1. davies
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        What’s your front 7

        1. zizoo10
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Salah • Mane • Eriksen • Rich
          Aguero • Zaha • King

    3. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Need to upgrade 1 x 4.0m at least

      1. davies
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        2/3 are first choice though

        1. zizoo10
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          the way i see it, people look at 3 x 4.0 defenders much differently to say shaw/taa + 2 x 4.0 defs. both combos consist of 3 potentially non nailed players.

    4. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      You can get a 5.5 defender and 4.5 defender over Mendy and Bednarek

  3. Etihader
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Why are people saying Mendy will not play. Talking about injury. Where did you take that?

    1. KenyaDigIt
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Don't listen - always best to do your own research.

      Mendy looks fine.

  4. Dog and Fox
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Richarlison 3-5-2 or Zaha 3-4-3?

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Zaha

  5. KenyaDigIt
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Just look at Aubameyang's history - the man has goals. He has proven himself every season. Including his cameo appearance in the EPL.

    The bookies have him as 6-1 to be the EPL top goalscorer, while Lacazette is at 25-1. They don't often get it wrong.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No doubt about it Auba is class. What’s making Laca an alternative is his price, and his own pedigree, he scored ridiculous amounts of goals in France while not playing for PSG which is difficult.

      The other 2 big factors which will swing it are penalties and position. If it’s Auba wide/Laca central, and Laca on pens, Lacazette will match him for value this year. He may even straight up outscore him.

      We need to see Man City & chelsea to see how things are shaping up.

      1. KenyaDigIt
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Great info and good points.

        I guess I'm being biassed to choose Aubameyang as I've invested in him.

        My thinking is that it is easier to downgrade to Laca and spend cash elsewhere should Laca look cemented in.

  6. dbeck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Best way to spend my 1m itb

    A) Tomkins to pva, Bailey or luiz
    B) Rui & Foster to DDG and 4.0
    C) Richarlison to siggy
    D) keep the 1m, greater flexibility on future transfers

    1. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. KUNingas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Sorry D I mean

        1. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Cheers, I’m leaning that way

  7. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    anybody going with 3 x 4.0 defenders?

    6.0 6.0 Peltier, AWB, Bednarek?

    2 x 4.0 is the meta. Now i know 3 non nailed is scary, but there are so many teams going around with 2 x 4.0 defenders + shaw, taa, etc. which is essentially the same thing

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No I’m just having one

    2. Robbie Slater
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Haven’t seen a huge amount with 2 x 4m with Shaw and TAA myself. Seen lots more with 2 x 4m with more nailed 6m like Robbo/Mendy and nailed 4.5s like Tomkins/Cedric/SCook. Many avoiding Shaw and Utd altogether now after yesterday’s non events

    3. Dyslexia Untied FC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Saw your team above. Would think about Erik downgrade.. even change 1 4mil to a jailed 4.5 for security. Worst case scenario you have 3/5 defenders that don’t play

    4. Another Hoops
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I'm going with 3 6mil defenders

    5. theswallow1965
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No
      6
      6
      4.5
      4.5
      4

  8. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Lacazette likely to be on the bench a lot this season?

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Seems to get hooked off early a lot when started last season

      1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        That’s what’s worrying me picking him over Aubameyang

  9. Pia06rc
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Stuck between:

    A)Richarlison + Mitrovic
    B)Sessegnon + King

    Thoughts?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. super zlatan
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        B

  10. Lionac
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Rotating Foster and Patricio or there are better options?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Hart and Patrico?

    2. La Roja
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Begovic Hart

  11. Do I Not Like Orange
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Hughes or another 5M mid?
    B) Peltier + 0.5 ITB or a decent 4.5 (e.g Dunk)?

  12. Fiz
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    How is it going lads?

  13. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ederson & Coleman
    Or
    Pickford & Mendy

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      2

  14. Dream Killers 2.0
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Who are scared about not owning?

    1. MDK
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Sanchez

    2. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Chelsea player against Huddersfield

    3. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      City mid

    4. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Dale Stephens

    5. Another Hoops
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Rashford for some wierd reason.

  15. The 12th Man
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pick one to fit in this midfield. Salah,Mane,Richarlison,________Cairney
    A)Jota
    B)Pedro
    C)Maddison
    D) get a 5m to rotate with Cairney and get a premium keeper and forget about below options.

    Choose 2 of these 3
    1. Patricio
    2.Foster
    3. Fabianski

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B
      1

      1. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thankyou

    2. Effendi007
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B,1,3

    3. Lazaretti
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B, 2 & 3 I own Doherty from Wolves

  16. Silecro
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone here going with Ederson & Mendy, or is it too much?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Too much

    2. KenyaDigIt
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      It looks like a lot of people are... Someone did mention the idea of bringing in Kepa and saving the extra city spot for an attacking mid/striker. Not a bad idea!

    3. Silecro
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks for advice but after long hard thought, i think i'm gonna still go with both of them, fixtures after arsenal looks too good to ignore, and really dont trust neither bailly or luiz atm

  17. The Royal Robin
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Down to these two drafts, which do you prefer. Thanks.

    A
    Pickford
    Mendy PVA Robertson
    Salah Mane Richarlison BSilva
    Zaha Kun King
    (Stek AWB Bednarek Stephens)

    B
    Kepa
    TAA Shaw Mendy
    Richarlison Sanchez Salah BSilva Lucas M
    Kun King
    (Stek Kamara AWB Bednarek)

    1. Ephurion
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A seems more solid to me.
      B has too many question marks (you could argue a higher potential, though)

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A as there's quite a few punts that could go badly in B.

    3. Dyslexia Untied FC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B - game changer

    4. theswallow1965
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  18. Lilac Breasted Roller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Laca, DDG, Mendy
    B) Auba, Ederson, Mee

    1. The Tinkerman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A riskier but probably more rewarding imo

    2. NotsoSpursy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    4. Lilac Breasted Roller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      thanks lads. What's FPL life without some risk

  19. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Fraser ... mmm ... genius choice or rotation trap 😉

    1. Dyslexia Untied FC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I guess we’re all hoping for the former!

  20. The Tinkerman
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Going into this season with triple Palace, triple Liverpool and triple Man City.

    Heres hoping they perform.

    1. 1569Tippins
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Same

    2. Dyslexia Untied FC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Here’s to GW2 thinking why did I choose triple palace?! Ha

  21. Cofinho
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is Maddison fit lads?

    1. The Tinkerman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A knock, id guess he starts behind Iheanacho.

      Schmeichel
      Chilwell, Evans, Morgan, Perreira
      Albrighton, Silva, Ndidi, Gray
      Maddison
      Iheanacho

      Would be my guess.

      1. Cofinho
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers!

  22. NotsoSpursy
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Better chance of a clean sheet?

    A Ars v CITY
    B BOURNE v Cardiff

    1. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B easily

    2. Royal5
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Not sure if serious

    3. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      .... A 200%

    4. theswallow1965
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B for sure. Ars v City has goals written all over it for both teams I think

  23. Demel
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Just something to throw out there. Bench wise.

    I have plumped with WB and Fraser on my bench. They are cheap and are a perfect rotation. You should always get a decent sub off the bench. Kamara is my throw away 3rd sub..

    1. NotsoSpursy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks demel will check to see if mine rotate

    2. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      How do you see the rotation?

  24. Blue Gaffer
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which is the better option:

    1. Robertson, Neves, Zaha
    2. Trent, Richarlison/Jota, King

    1. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      2

  25. Sharkytect
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Where has the pre season tab gone?

    1. The Tinkerman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I was also just looking for this...

    2. rainy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Replaced by team news

      1. Sharkytect
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        That's not what I want, though!

  26. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha/Arnie to King or Jota in mid??
    Other 5.5 than Luiz? Maybe some United def? Or maybe Coleman/PVA?

    Rui / Hamer
    Mendy / Robo / Luiz / Peltier / WB
    Salah / Mane / BSilva / Richa / Stephens
    Kun / Arnie / Zaha

  27. Live Lad
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Kepa playing this week?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yes

    2. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Probably, started training yesterday already.

  28. Gabbiadini
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha and 4.5 mid or King and 5.0 mid (mids are both for the bench position)

  29. Shifty
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ederson expected to start, right?

  30. ralfb
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Kun or aubameyang ? Will kun be benched a lot?