Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Kinder Mbueno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    1. Mata a decent differential for a couple of ganeweeks?

    2. Jota, Boly or Doherty?

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Jota

    2. KenyaDigIt
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Mata could be and he has a decent record vs Leicester.

      I had him but I'm changing. Looking for someone who will play the full 90min every GW.

      Schürrle - looks interesting.

  2. Botman and Robben
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Going with 3, 6.0 defenders. Do I need to drop one to a 5.0 or 5.5?

    Ederson
    Robertson Bavies Mendy
    Salah Mane Richalison Jota
    Zaha Aguero King

    Boruc Stephens Wan-Bissa Peltier

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      looks good to me

    2. Arn De Gothia
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      No, Im doing same

  3. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Is Bernardo Silva a better pick than Willian to start with?

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

      1. A.T
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Why?

        1. Jafooli
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Chances of starting I think.

          Really want Willian but concerned over starts

          1. A.T
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Can’t see anyone in front of him tbh. Suppose he could come off the bench gw1 though.

        2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Hazard, Willian, Pedro can’t all start

          Bilva has been confirmed by Pep as being in favour for City’s first set of games

          City’s fixtures are way better & Chelsea have just significantly weakened their team for this season by downgrading Courtois to Kepa

          City will score more goals than Chelsea

          1. A.T
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Pedro is shite.
            Is Bilva any good?
            How does Kepa in goal stop Willian scoring?
            How does City scoring goals stop Willian scoring?

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • 16 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Shite is harsh, he scored and assisted more in his second season than Willian has ever managed in 5 seasons, in less minutes.

              Yes Bilva is very good.

              Downgrading your goalkeeper affects the entire team

              Bilva will be playing in a team scoring more goals than Willian

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yup

  4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    In 12 hours the second half will be starting... hopefully Sanchez has already scored two

    1. Effendi007
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      You've convinced me sir. Captain Sanchez it is

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        No need to captain, just take the points 🙂

  5. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on a Hamer - Fabianski rotation?

    CHE, BOU, CDF, WLV, CRY first 5 GWs

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Is Hamer starting?!

      1. TaiwanHC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        He played 450 minutes in preseason, compared to Lössl's 90.

      2. Fletcher Moss
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Wondering this myself. Seems unlikely as Lössl had a good season, but I did like Hamer when at Leicester.

        If I need 0.5 in the next few hours then Begovic could make way and I’ll just have to play Fabs every week if Hamer doesn’t work out.

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Great second keeper at 4.0 if so

  6. Kuzser
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Morning everyone.

    Need some help with this please:
    1) Cairney, tomkins and another 4.5def (Cairney 1st sub, and have 1 4.0def)
    2) stephens, 5.5def(luiz) and 4.0 def (then it'll be 2 4.0def in the team)

  7. Azathoth
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    King or Zaha?

    1. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      King

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      King imo

    3. Fantastisk
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      King

  8. super zlatan
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Pick one.

    PVA or Bailly?

    Other starters are Mendy and Robbo.

    1. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      PVa

    2. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I've gone for Bailly because I'll probably play AWB sometimes and don't want to double up on Palace.

    3. Hasselbaink Forever
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      PVA

  9. BigBarn
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Bernard at 6.0? That's certainly one to watch. Mina in at 0.5 too much.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      In fairness, Pickford, Baines, Mina, Keane, Coleman is not a bad defence

      1. Cofinho
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Mina is not that good in defence.

      2. Royal5
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Keane and Baines were shocking last season.

      3. Brehmeren
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Baines will soon be Digne, you have to think

  10. ralfb
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Bottomed last page :
    Kun or aubameyang and reasons why please? Will kun be benched a lot?

    1. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Starting with Kun then replacing to Auba, rotations.

      1. ralfb
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks, that sounds sensible

  11. Cofinho
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Richarilson or Maddison? Last decision. Cheers

    1. InvertedWinger
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Rich

  12. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Zaha/Arnie to King or Jota in mid??
    Other 5.5 than Luiz? Maybe some United def? Or maybe Coleman/PVA??

    Rui / Hamer
    Mendy / Robo / Luiz / Peltier / WB
    Salah / Mane / BSilva / Richa / Stephens
    Kun / Arnie / Zaha

  13. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    3 x City, 3 x Pool activated

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      yes sir!

  14. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    1) Yes

    2) Jota

    1. La Roja
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      3) No

      1. Jafooli
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        4) Mayne

        1. Jafooli
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          *maybe

    2. InvertedWinger
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      4) PvA

  15. Fletcher Moss
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    I’ve had Lacazette most of pre-season but switched to Firmino last night. Allows me to get Aubameyang for Aguero or Lacazette for Firmino once their fixtures improve.

    Fraser vs King is a battle I’ve been having all pre-season. How long is Stanislas out for?

    1. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      King imo

  16. Dream Killers 2.0
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Would you rather have Mane or Firmino?

    1. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Mane

    2. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      The million dollar question.

      Toss of a coin.

      1. Dream Killers 2.0
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Exactly my thoughts...

    3. InvertedWinger
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Bobby

    4. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Pages are flying real fast!

  17. Effendi007
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Am I mildly or extremely crazy to go with Zaha, Tosun, King up front with 4 mil in the bank for a swap to someone more expensive in 2 weeks ?

    Thoughts pretty please

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      No I like this idea

    2. InvertedWinger
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Doesn't make sense. Might as well start with someone expensive like Aguero and switch from expensive to expensive.

      Cash in the bank doesn't score you points.

      1. Effendi007
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Thing is I'm really struggling to pick between Auba and Aguero. Figured I might have a clearer picture in two weeks but obviously could miss out big time

      2. theswallow1965
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        This

  18. Js31
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    1 Salah & King/Arnie/Rashford
    2 Eriksen & Firmino

    I really do like my team better without Salah...

  19. John Colby (C)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Morning all.
    Is Trent Alexander-Arnold nailed-on or should I go with Robertson or Van Dijk?

    1. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I think he is nailed.

    2. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      General perception is robbo is safer. Clyne more likely to play than Moreno.

  20. how now brown cow
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    I normally spend 99.5 on my team, keeping 0.5 spare for upgrades so I don't have the pressure of rushing into sat night bandwagons. (I've never been one for chasing price rises.)

    This year I notice I can get kepa/4.0 instead of my usual 2x4.5 go, but that leaves me nothing spare.

    I have bilva with a thought to get pogba with the extra.

    Does anyone else save contingency cash or should I just go kepa?

    1. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I saved 1m easily. 6 5.5 5.5 4.5 4 my defence

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Im in the same situation, decided to go Kepa.

    3. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I don’t make it a point to keep it but I don’t make it a point to spend it all either. I have 0.5 ITB right now because I have no use for it.

  21. ShaunGoater123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    can't decide between:

    A) - Ederson & Boly / Doherty +0.5

    B) Mendy & Patricio

    1. zizoo10
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B. mendy good for baps

  22. Differential C (Mark)
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Deadline Day
    Southampton fans : We want signings!
    Southampton Board: Yes, we shall do signings!
    *SIGN INGS*
    Fans: Ffs

    But seriously, looking forward to this season for Southampton. Ings could present great value at 5.5m once he starts games. Currently between him and Jiminez (WOL) for a slot in my team.

  23. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Arsenal def looks rough, right?

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      If Emery sticks by Mustafi, that defence will have a lot of grief. We all know how passive he can be, seems to always have a blunder in him. If Emery can help him get back to his best, fair play.

    2. Jay Arell
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Just wait and see.

  24. Dele
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Jota or Richarlison?

    How has Richy looked since joining, did he get any gametime pre season?

    Jota still OOP?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Jota still on the wing

    2. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      He has scored one goal, but eve preseason games were terrible. Still will risk with rich

  25. Fletcher Moss
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    I’d do it myself if I didn’t have to get ready for work, but a hot topic with all the new player prices would be useful.

    Is that info available as a list elsewhere? Just the new players.

  26. Visionaries
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Too light at the back?

    Ederson
    Tarko, Cedric, Shaw,
    Salah, Mane, Sane, Richa
    Zaha, King, Aguero

    Tomkins, Wan B, Masu

    Could do Sane & Shaw > Mahrez & Bailly/5.5?

    1. Dele
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yep! I would avoid Cedric and Shaw

    2. zizoo10
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      you could take this route, same front 7

      4.5gk
      Robertson • Mendy • Bednarek
      Salah • Mane • Sane • Rich
      Aguero • King • Zaha

      Hamer • 4.5 mid • Peltier • AWB

      1. Punty McPuntface
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Who is AWB? Thank you please

  27. Gol D Roger
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Patricio
    Tomkins/Robertson/Mendy
    Salah/Eriksen/BSilva/Richarlison
    Arnie/Aguero/King

    Fabi---Cairney--Pielta--Zanka

    Don't like the idea of a 5.0 on the bench but Cairney just seems to good for value , being guaranteed starter and set pieces

    That being said, alternative to Eriksen? Feel like he could be a good differential (funny I know considering his consistency)

  28. Dacra
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Erikson + Firmino
    Or
    Mane + Lacazette

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B

  29. Jay Arell
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone thinking Ralls could be a better option then Cairney for 5m? Being on pens and set pieces? Cheers

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

  30. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Billing has had good preseason with high ratings. Is he decent pick from 4.5 m midfielders (fifth mid) or stick with Stephens or Gunnarsson ?

    A Billling
    B Gunnarsson
    C Stephens
    D Any other?