Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. McSauce
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Last decision and I am set, which one is stronger?

    A) 4.5m Def + Mane + Mahrez
    B) PVA + Richarlison + Sanchez

    1. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B

    2. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A with Tomkyns

  2. Davido989
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Klopp says Klavan no chance, Lovren not available. Matip/Gomez to be assessed. #LFC

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      TAA nailed

      1. Four Hit Wonder
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        You wish. No one knows if TAA or Clyne will start. Probably TAA but not nailed in GW1 at least.

    2. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      That sound you can hear is everyone stampeding back to Arnie.

      1. ElliotJHP
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Never left the train, but it has certainly now sped up Arnieeee

        1. Shatner's Bassoon
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Me neither 😀

          BOU/WOL in first four? Yes please. Even off the left if need be. Absolute gunman.

    3. Typo
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      who will it be then? VVD and?

      1. Davido989
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Gotta fancy Gomez to make it.

  3. samy888
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Help please !!

    A- Mendy & pletier / bisaka
    B- Lowton & kabasele

    1. AzzaroMax99
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Mendy & WB

  4. Tshelby
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    With those new signings from Everton will this have effect on Richalison's game time?

    1. Siggy in the Middle
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      No. He cost a sh¡t ton of money.

  5. EMEA
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A doubt for middle priced forward option..Rashford or King?

    1. Siggy in the Middle
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      King. Nailed.

      1. FredrikH
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Wilson, Defoe?

        1. Siggy in the Middle
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          He'll play alongside Wilson. Defoe is bench fodder irl.

  6. No Salah
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    What fob you reckon about TAA game time over the season?

  7. Davido989
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Klopp on Fabinho: "The scan was clear. It was only a check up. He felt ill when he came back so we sent him home. We will see."

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      More chance of conceding without their defensive mid?

      1. Davido989
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Definitely.

  8. Norregard
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Last knot to untie:

    A. Mahrez
    B. Mané

    Already have Mendy and Aguero for City and Salah and Robertson for Liverpool.

    1. KingoftheRunts
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B

    2. Teror
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I went for Mahrez and Firmino

    3. ElliotJHP
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

  9. Siggy in the Middle
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    RMT police gonna have a tough time today

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      It’s how anarchy starts. First it’s posting RMTs. Then next thing you know the government has been overthrown & there is looting in the streets. We all need to support our RMT Police.

  10. anish10
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Best mid for 5.5?

    1. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Get Cairney for 5 .0 instead.

  11. Ruinenlust
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    My team is perfect

    1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      It Shaw is.

  12. Teror
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Why do I suddenly hate my team? Could someone please reassure me that it's all going to be okay?

    Foster
    Robertson - Mendy - Luiz - Cook
    Salah - Mahrez - Richarlison
    Firmino - Aguero - King

    (Fab - Cairney - AWB - Stephens)

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      It's all going to be okay

    2. Kiwi Don
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Looks good.

  13. Typo
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    bottomed, pages are flying.

    4.5 mid. Who are we rooting for. Im on gunnarsson atm, dont know why.

    1. KingoftheRunts
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Only romeu and Stephens seem nailed atm. Gunnarsson safe enough

  14. HD7
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    When do you think Harry Kane will start matches - From GW1 surely no?

    1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Why ever not.

  15. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Which is better:
    A). Targett/Zaha/Kamara
    B). Peltier/Mitro/Jimenez

    1. MavKing14
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B

  16. camarozz
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Have Robertson and Salah

    No arsenal yet .

    Aguero and King up top

    So Firmino or Lacazette??

    1. Bumbaclot
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Firmino

    2. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Gone with Firmino and will monitor Arsenal for first few weeks.

    3. Four Hit Wonder
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I went with Laca.

  17. Bumbaclot
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Why are people saying Daniels likely to be dropped???

    1. Teror
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Because he's likely to be dropped.

      1. Bumbaclot
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Why?

    2. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      They bought a LB who is serving a suspension

  18. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Start one

    A) Arnie (liv)
    B) Cairney (CPL)

    1. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

      1. super zlatan
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        A

  19. No_Mo_Salah?
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    How much money are you leaving ITB? 1.5m here.

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      0.00000

      1. super zlatan
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Zero.

        1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Basically

    2. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Pump as much as U can in starting XI

    3. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Had 1m, now upgraded 5th mid to Fraser, so Zero

    4. F_Ivanovic
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      1.5 here too. Allows me to easily get in Aubemayang or Aguero for week 2/3

  20. adam28193
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Upgrade Cedric to shaw with 0.5 or upgrade Stephens to Cairney?

    1. FredrikH
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Shaw

      1. adam28193
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Would you bench Mendy to play shaw?

  21. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A) Bertrand
    B) Cedric+ 0.5

    Thoughts? Cedric might not play, but I got Hughes/Mendy to cover. The 0.5 might be needed afterwards for instance Mane-> KDB.

    Or pick Bertrand more safe right now, great value anyway and find 0.5 elsewhere.

  22. Shaikh91
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Thoughts on this team?

    Foster patricio
    Mendy, bednarek, wan bis, Simpson, Shaw
    Sanchez, ozil, richarlison, mane, jota
    Aguero, iheanacho, laca

  23. Pioorek
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    RMT please:

    Ederson - Fabianski
    Robertson - Coleman - Daniels - Mee - Tomkins
    Ericksen - Salah - Townsend - Sigurdsson - Cairney
    King - Zaha - Lacazete

    1. Pioorek
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Firmino not Lacazete

      1. No_Mo_Salah?
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Agreed

    2. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Looks fine. Daniels is risky.

  24. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Haven't watched any pre-season and baffled that B.Silva has 6 percent ownership. Is he now nailed?

    1. Teror
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      For the first few, yes.

    2. Typo
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      for a couple of games maybe, cant handle having him myself

  25. Football Heaven
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is everyone overlooking wolves? They have a phenomenal squad and most of their fpl players are good value? Against a shaky Everton defence I think they can easily score a couple

    1. camarozz
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I'm not. Patricio and Jota in my team.

      1. Football Heaven
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Would you rather have king or jota? I think king will defo score 1st game but I think jota has higher ceiling

    2. Siggy in the Middle
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      You're gonna tempt me to start Jimenez ahead of Sessegnon or Richarlison.

  26. Taegugk Warrior
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Who to bench GW1

    Kabasele vs BHA
    Mendy vs ARS

    1. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Don't bench 6.0m in my view

  27. pleccy
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    I'm thinking about Mahrez but does anyone know what will happen when Stirling is fit again?

    1. George Sillett
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      No.

      1. pleccy
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        ok thanks. definately risky then hmm

  28. ElliotJHP
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Rate my team thanks xx

    Hannibal
    Faceman
    Murdock
    B. A. Baracus

  29. Whats the Huth
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Right. I’m done.
    Good luck all.

    Patricio. Button.
    PVA. VVD. Cedric. Lowton. (Wan-Bis)
    Salah. Costa. Eriksen. Siggy. (Cairney)
    Aubameyang. Aguero. (Kamara)

  30. cheekumz
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Any Southhampton fans about? .. How secure is Bednarek to start?

    Also, is Mata worth a punt think week over Townsend or Milivojevic?

    Cheers