Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Hairy Potter
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Re-post - which one of the below looks better? Anticipating an early wildcard so this is for GW1-4.

    A) DDG, Mendy, BSilva

    B) Ederson, Janmatt/Shaw, Mahrez

    1. Fantastisk
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A

    2. jdogg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A.x

    3. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A

    4. Dele
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A

    5. Cofinho
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A

    6. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Thanks guys

  2. Marquis-Cha-Cha
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Tarkowski or Shaw?

    Starting with Robertson and PVA.

    1. super zlatan
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Prob the former as more nailed.

      1. Marquis-Cha-Cha
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Good point. Thanks.

    2. Knowledgeable meerkat
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I’d go for a Burnley defender over shaw. As for which one I’m not sure

      1. Fantastisk
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        This

        1. Marquis-Cha-Cha
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          It's who I currently have. Hope I picked the right one.
          Thanks

  3. Knowledgeable meerkat
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Foster and fabianski should definitely both start, right?

    Gomes/Adrian not a serious threat?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Yes they will

      1. Knowledgeable meerkat
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers

  4. zizzou123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    My gut is saying take out either Richarlison or Jota for Andros Townsend ..his stats are pretty impressive from the second half of last season.

    Pocket the 0.5 and go Mane to KdB soon :/

    1. Dele
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Interesting!

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Gutsy!

    3. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I like Townsend as a pick. Brings a lot to palace.

  5. Newsman70
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Team currently 0.5 in the bank

    DeGea Speroni
    Van Aanholt Daniels Bertrand Peltier Schindler
    Salah Sane Mane Neves Richarlson
    Aguerro Zaha Kamara

    Any thoughts please. I have seen teams with Aubameyang as well but they look paper thin elsewhere.

  6. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Zaha/Arnie to King or Jota in mid?

    Other 5.5 than Luiz?
    Maybe some United def? Or maybe Coleman/PVA?

  7. Blue Gaffer
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Mitrovic & 4.5 mid or Kamara & one of Pedro/Rich/Jota?

    1. jdogg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Mitro.x

  8. palace ash
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    I'm currently 0.5M off of the team I really want. Suggestions as to what to do?

    Begovic, Boruc
    Robertson, Mendy, PVA, AWB, Bednarek
    Salah, Bilva, Richarlison, Jota, Fraser
    Aguero, Firmino, Zaha

    ITB -0.5

    1. Dele
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Downgrade Fraser

      1. MJFainty
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        This. Or if you're attached to him downgrade Zaha to one of the 6.5 options (there's loads)

    2. David_23
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      PVA --> Tomkins or Zaha--> King.

    3. jdogg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Fraser to cairney or kenedy.x

      1. Dele
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Fraser to Cairney best option.

    4. Flowsick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Downgrade Fraser, also solves benching headaches.

    5. MFC86
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Downgrade PVA

  9. Shifty
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Ederson expected to start, right? That said...

    A) Ederson + 4.0 GK + Robertson
    B) Mendy + Rotating 4.5 keepers + 0.5m in bank

    1. jdogg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A.x

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A. Maybe get Stekelenburg as your 4.0 as he may start GW1 if Pickford isn’t ready.

    3. Shifty
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Thanks botH

  10. Nerdlinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Morning all. So had Zab sat in my template team all summer as a cheap defender with decent fixtures/ rotation but according to reports he's not a likely starter. So tell me, Declan Rice... is he nailed and is he going to be oop? Cheers

    1. Dyslexia Untied FC
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      West Ham have awful fixtures?!

      1. Nerdlinger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Not the greatest, but there's decent rotation and I fancy them to surprise people

    2. Dybala10
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Wouldn’t say he’s nailed anymore but played a lot in midfield in pre-season. Better off with Ogbonna or Diop.

  11. Jimi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Who are the best rotating goalkeepers ??

    1. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      DDG & Hamer

      With DDG playing every week

  12. jdogg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Is it madness to have moura bernardo silva and shaw? Or should i at least get enough games out of them to deal with easily with free transfers?x

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I have both. Good use of € early on imo. Just need to have FT’s on standby

      1. jdogg
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        I have 0.5 itb is it worth doing shaw to luiz or bailly?are they more secure?x

  13. Henning
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Good morning.

    1 Is Patricio Nailed?
    2 any good defender at 5m?

    1. David_23
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      1. I think Patricio should start
      2. Maybe Tomkins, Cedric,.Boly

    2. HapHazard (H2)
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      1. Yes
      2. Burnley

      1. David_23
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah Ben Mee is 5M i think

  14. Blanka
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Still a bit torn between Pedro, Jota and Richarlison!

    1. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Torn between Jota and Pedro myself. Will Pedro start?
      That’s my only worry

      1. Blanka
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        That's it. Jota will play a big role at wolves.

        Pedro if plays is also great value.

        1. The 12th Man
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          I have Richarlison as my 3rd midfielder.
          I could get Jota in for Cairney who is on my bench and play 3-5-2 by downgrading Mitrovic

    2. Merlinho
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I have Pedro and Richarlison currently, looks like the love has moved away from Pedro though so I'm waivering...

  15. BucketHead
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Taa with Madison or bailly with Fraser.... Already have calum Wilson and vvd??
    What ya think guys thanks

  16. ralfb
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Keeps it de gea as only playing goalkeeper?

    1. ralfb
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Kepa or de gea , I meant

      1. MJFainty
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        I've gone with Kepa, couldn't quite bring myself to pay the extra 0.5 for DDG

  17. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    How many goals will Man City & Pool score between them in GW1

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      4 maybe 5

      Liverpool 3
      Man City 1

    2. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      4 and 2, so 6 between them

  18. HurriKane
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    The fact that baily wasnt mentioned by mourinho in injured list suggests he should start right?.

    Played most mins in pre season and was captain.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Are there press conferences today?

      1. MJFainty
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Mourinho was yesterday I believe.

    2. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Yeh considering Bavies > Bailly to free up .5

  19. raoulduke71
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    All comes down to this -

    a) mane, firmino & de gea
    b) salah, zaha & patricio

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Salah > everyone

  20. Les Bleus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Last year, it was a nightmare switching around the third striker spot. This year, I may have two “third” strikers.

    Do you think that King and Arnie are both “third” strikers? Either way, do you believe it’s unwise to go with both?

    1. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I have both

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Same

    2. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Yes, but they are so useful to fund a decent midfield. I am on zaha + king at the moment for fixtures

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Fair point. Cheers

    3. MFC86
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Many have both along side Aguero/auba

  21. KUNingas
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Arnie on penalties if Noble isnt on pitch?

  22. FPL Footy Show Pod
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Trawling the forums this morning:

    Watford fans unsure what their back line will look like (Kaba the name that keeps cropping up)

    Digne expected to start with Everton fans

    Bednarek won’t start from Southampton fans (Vestergaard, Yoshida & Bertrand/Hoedt at CB)

  23. 420king
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Best way to get 0.5m ?

    A. One of two 4.5 GKs ➡ 4.0
    B. Cairney ➡ 4.5
    C. Robertson ➡ TAA

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Unless Cairney is your fifth mid, in which case B

        1. 420king
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          He is but it would leave me with a bench of 4.5, 4.0 & 4.0. Scary!

          1. Les Bleus
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 8 months ago

            I have that too 😀

            To be fair, we haven’t seen 4.0 starting defenders for quite some time and now we may have two of them

            1. 420king
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 8 months ago

              I agree but I always like to have a bit of quality on my bench in case someone from first eleven doesn't play. Cairney kinda fits that bill.

              Cheers!

    2. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A for me.
      What is the 0.5 for?

      1. 420king
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Shaw ➡ 5.5

    3. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A

    4. Fantastisk
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A and get back up keeper. Definitely not C.

      1. 420king
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        The 4.5 I wan't doesn't have one 😛

    5. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers all.

  24. Sharkytect
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Which is better?

    A) 2x4.5 keepers + holebas (as 3rd defender in 3-4-3)
    B) patricio + 4.0 + shaw

    1. Flynny
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      A. But maybe not holebas

      1. Sharkytect
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Who would you go for. I would want a sure starter

        1. Flynny
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          I have boly

    2. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I have B, transferring Shaw out after GW2

      1. Sharkytect
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        But it's rubbish to plan transfers tbis early in tbe season. Someone else in the team will need dealing with more urgently and scupper your transfer plans

  25. Flynny
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    What is the better option.

    A... Davies and Peltier

    B...pva and boly (benched)

    Thanks

    1. David_23
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      B

  26. GOONER
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Fraser or Richarlison?

    1. cheekumz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I personally believe Richarlison is gonna have a breakout season... so he gets my vote.

    2. Blanka
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Richarlison looks most obvious. However I'm considering Fraser now. Think I'm over thinking it.

  27. cheekumz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Hmm Townsend really flew under my radar... is he better option than my current only worry on my Team ... Milivojevic??

    1. zizzou123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Absolutely. Mili can't surely get as many pens as he did last season. 6.5 is a lot for him imo

  28. Dele
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Arnie or Zaha

  29. ace
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Worth changing Richarlison for Bernard or another £6m & Shaw for Daniels?

    I have Luiz and Mendy as my other two decent defenders.

  30. Daywalker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Select one:

    a) PVA, Bernardo Silva, Arnautovic
    b) Daniels, Mahrez, Mitrovic

    1. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      a