Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. El Lobito 10
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Mane or Laca?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      tough, Mane just

      1. El Lobito 10
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        cheers

  2. Adro3
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Back on Arnie over Zaha

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      just those fixtures an issue for me

    2. El Lobito 10
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Arnie best shout. Fixture proof

  3. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Kepa or Ederson

    rest of defense

    Mendy Robertson Tomkins Doherty Wan-Bisaka

    1. Mr. Clueless
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Kepa if you have Mendy

  4. AFlynny
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    How we looking?

    DDG Fabianski
    Mendy Robertson Smith (AWB Boly)
    Salah Eriksen Schurrle Richarlison (Hudson Odoi)
    Arnie Tosun Aubameyang

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      would try and get kun in, prob at expense of Erik

    2. Kane Toads
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Fab > 4.0m and save +set and forget. Keep the 0.5m for upgrades later.

  5. Mr. Clueless
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    A) Erikson and Bilva
    or
    b) De bruyne and Mikhi

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      a, kdb may not start season

  6. bobby_bookah
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    just need to decide on my 4.5 def, going wolves or watford due to team make up.

    a, Holebas (?fully fit, takes stuff)
    b, Kabasele
    c, Boly (forward for set pieces)
    d, jonny Otto man (wb, best name)
    e Doherty (wb)

    Input appreciated esp frum wolves fans

  7. So Troublesome
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Surely Sigurdsson will outscore Richarlison this season?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      takes set pieces so probs, not sure worth a full mill though

      1. El Lobito 10
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Rich is crap. Syg all the way.

    2. Garlana
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      He should do if he's been priced correctly

  8. Emery thing I do
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Surely TAA will start? Liverpool fans?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      i hope so

    2. @fpl_phenom
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      why surely?

      I am currently on TAA ... look worst case hes going to be nailed on from GW2 onwards for me anyway....

      1. El Lobito 10
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Worst case? What if Clyne plays well?

        1. @fpl_phenom
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          he first choice ahead of Clyne IMO... hes just possibly not ready this weekend... but could very well start from the off

          1. zizoo10
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 8 months ago

            that's a big call

            1. Emery thing I do
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 8 months ago

              Most pool fans tell me he’s ahead of Clyne too...

      2. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        That's where I'm at. Will let auto sub do it's job but expect him gw2 on

  9. arkom
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Play Jota or Austin?

    1. arkom
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      So it will be:
      A) Jota & Kamara
      or?
      B) Masuaku & Austin

      1. Shifty17
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Personally I’d go A. Jota nailed on, Option B isn’t

  10. El Lobito 10
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Best nailed 4.5m mid bench fodder?

    1. @fpl_phenom
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      stephens

      1. El Lobito 10
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        cheers. anyone else?

  11. @fpl_phenom
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    would you change these 3 players ? I am not 100% on keeping them...

    TAA

    Moura

    Richarlison

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I don't like Moura. Other 2 are okay.

    2. hustler7
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I currently have Moura bit of a risk but worth a punt I reckon

  12. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Although their World Cup stars have had extended holidays and very short pre-seasons, Pochettino insists they are fit and raring to go. Kane saw the arrival of his second child this week but had been back in training the week before to sharpen up his fitness.

    But Pochettino insists returning stars from the World Cup are fit and raring to get going
    Pochettino may, however, not rush the returns of Rose and Alderweireld, who were expected to leave the club but have so far remained.

    'For sure Hugo is ready to play,' Pochettino said. 'Of course all are in different places mentally. There's a lot of rumour and it's normal that if you appear on the TV and in the media it's impossible not to be affected a little bit.

  13. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    3 x 4.0 defenders anyone? imminent upgrade once a bandwagon downgrade emerges eventually

    Patricio
    Robertson • Mendy • Bednarek
    Salah • Mane • Sane • Rich
    Aguero • King • Zaha

    Hamer • 4.5 mid • Peltier • AWB

    1. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I would downgrade Robbo > TAA or King > Fraser for the extra 1.0 and upgrade Bednarek.

      For what its worth, this is my team:

      Patricio
      Robertson • Mendy • PVA
      Salah • Mane • MAHREZ • Rich • FRASER
      Aguero • Zaha

      Hamer • 4.5 FWD • Peltier • AWB

    2. Visionaries
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah similar to mine, definitely think Sane is worth stretching out for

  14. Slurpy
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Joe Hart will start on Sunday think he's great option at 4.5

    1. Goat
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      You won’t think that Monday

  15. LewanGOALski
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Last dilemmas:

    1) Cedric or Kabasele?
    2) Zaha or Arnie?

    thx!

  16. Twitchy
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Money in the bank left för KDB but should I go Bsilva or Mahrez before swapping?

    Also:
    A,Firmino and Mkhi
    B,Mané and Zaha/King
    C, Laca and GroB

    1. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Bsilva
      B

  17. Adambailey
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Last one I’m having to put phone down. Please RMT:

    De gea,
    Robertson, Mendy, Davies
    Salah, mhki, Richarlison, b Silva
    Aubam, zaha, arnautovic

    Subs: speroni, carney, wan bis, bendtiker

    1. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      It's good. Mhki a little risky though.

      1. Adambailey
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Don’t know why but I think he will do well this year. If not when players come back from World Cup I can switch

        1. 420king
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          I think he'll do well too. The problem is we don't know if he's a regular starter yet, hence risky.

  18. Bocaginge
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Is Mina likely to play against Wolves this weekend?

    1. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Probably not, go Coleman if you want Everton D.

  19. compaxz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Firmino + 4,5 attacker or Tosun + King?

    Tosun/king would rotate with Jota/mikhi

    1. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      That's a lot to leave on your bench. Where did you get the cash?

      1. compaxz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Leno
        Robertson - mendy - Tomkins
        B.silva - Richarlison - Salah - Jota
        Aguero - ?

        Heart - WBA - Cedric - Mikhi

  20. Kane Toads
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    I know this has been discussed before:

    who is the best 4.5m GKP to have with a 4.0m GKP??

    I have Fab..

    thanks...

    1. viks1981
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I've gone with Joe Hart. Low ownership. Burnley solid at at the back and good fixtures. Doubt Heaton will be straight into the team due too his long absence. Thoughts?

      1. Kane Toads
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 8 months ago

        Sounds good - long term? uncertain on how long Hart will be #1...

        1. viks1981
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 8 months ago

          Reckon it will as long terms as until i draw WC at least. Believe there is a good possibility of Hart claiming the place on a regular basis, and sureLY Heaton will given som gametime practice in the Europa League before throwing him into the PL? Hart could show a good differential IMO, and rise in price with some clean sheets with Burnleys good fixtures..?

    2. Chockky
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      ive gone begovic but I like Hart its just the Heaton thing

  21. shahrooy
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    RMT pls...

    Pickford
    Daniels-Azpi-Davies
    Grob-Mane (C)-Eriksen(V)-Sane
    King-Zaha-Firmino

    Subs: Fabianski, Richarlison, Wan-Bissaka, Cedric

  22. aspilcueta
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Distinct lack of interest in Son for the first game. Could be deployed up front should Kane not play, and on the wing if he does. Moura will still play on the right if Son plays out left. You can never write him off.

    1. Tony Moon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      He's off to the Asian Games after GW1, so will miss a few weeks.

  23. faithy13
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    FREE ENTRY into a Season long PREMIERE LEAGUE fantasy league where the first place pays €20.000 . NO DEPOSIT NEEDED!!! Sign up using my link and the first 10 will get a free entry into the tournament. Go to : http://fanteam.com/l/FantasyFeetz to register. Once you are registered, send me an email to faithhealer13@hotmail.com so I can credit your ticket into your account.

  24. arkom
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    A) Jota & Kamara (play Jota)
    or?
    B) Masuaku & Austin (play Austin)

  25. 1justlookin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Repost -

    Final dilemma,

    Shaw and Hoedt

    or

    Bailly and Bednarek

  26. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Got a backline of

    Patricio - Hamer
    Robbo - Mendy - Davies - WB - Peltier

    Thoughts on swapping Robbo to TAA and upgrade Peltier and Hamer to a 4.5 ?

    1. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      I would swap to TAA but use the cash elsewhere. Your subs are fine

  27. osullg26
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Have 9.5 to spend on a Mid

    Mane or Mahrez/Bernardo Silva?

    Already have salah and aguero but that's not relevant..

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Mahrez

    2. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Mane

    3. forritz
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 months ago

      Mane

  28. cravencottage
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Last decision:

    A) King and Siggy (1.0 ITB)
    B) Firmino and Fraser (0 ITB)

  29. forritz
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    a) Alli and Tarkowski+0.5m
    b) KDB and Tomkins

    Your pick?

  30. Gentle_Turks
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 months ago

    Best 4.5 mid?

    Stephens the overwhelming favourite at the moment with 12% ownership, but will he play? Am I missing something or did he play no preseason?