Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Gol D Roger
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Patricio 
    Tomkins/Robertson/Mendy
    Salah/Eriksen/BSilva/Richarlison
    Arnie/Aguero/King

    Fabi---Cairney--Pielta--Zanka

    Don't like the idea of a 5.0 on the bench but Cairney just seems to good for value , being guaranteed starter and set pieces 

    That being said, alternative to Eriksen? Feel like he could be a good differential (funny I know considering his consistency)

  2. stilicho
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What do we reckon the first-choice Man City back 4 is? Generally speaking, not just week one.

    1. A.T
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Walker Otamendi Kompany Mendy

      1. stilicho
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ta

      2. Regin
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        stones will play matches as well. There will be rotation in CB position is what I feel.

    2. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I’m not sure Pep knows tbh, don’t think it’s set in stone

      1. stilicho
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ok, who do you think are the safest bets?

        1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Mendy and Walker.

          Stones should play quite a bit also

      2. Benster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Or set on Stones

    3. Gol D Roger
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Walker Otamendi ____ Mendy

      The problem is it's between Stones/Kompany/Laporte

      And considering the age and potential of Laporte and stones and the experience now

      He may be more tempted to rotate Kompany and Otamendi more The more nailed options are the full backs

    4. il Brutto
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Walker Stones Otamendi Mendy

    5. stilicho
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks all, really helpful

    6. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Walker, Ota, Kompany, Mendy.

    7. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I think he’ll have two.

      If he was playing a champions league final and everyone was fit & available:

      Walker, Ota, Kompany, Mendy

      If he was playing for example Cardiff at home and can afford to rest his best players, or those who are also injury prone, or returning from serious injury:

      Danilo, Laporte, Stones,, Delph

      Then he could also play a back 3...

  3. Gee_mm
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pedro or Townsend ?

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Townsend. Nailed, half a million cheaper... Reckon he'll outscore Pedro too...

      1. Gee_mm
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        still have 1.5 in the bank, reckon Pedro for B.Silva is a good pick ?

      2. BERGKOP
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Better option than zaha?

        1. Gee_mm
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Townsend is a better pick for me than Zaha.

  4. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    start bednarek over tarkowski? bookies favouring soton by a country mile

  5. Daywalker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Bottomed.

    Select one:

    a) PVA, Bernardo Silva, Arnautovic
    b) Daniels, Mahrez, Mitrovic

    1. JoeJitzu +42
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. HapHazard (H2)
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. Tomcooper9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  6. Super Nashwan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Mane and zaha or
    Firmino and richarlson?
    Who is the better option?

    1. Killitzer
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      mane and zaha

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mané/Arnie?

      1. Super Nashwan
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks already got arnie

  7. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which do you prefer?
    A. Kepa Mendy (Cairney)
    B. Ederson Luiz (Fraser)

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. HapHazard (H2)
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  8. il Brutto
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is Lucas a viable alternative to Eriksen for the first few GWs?

    1. JoeJitzu +42
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A maybe for first few alright!

    2. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Worth a punt for £2.5m change

  9. klopp it guys
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    aubamaumyang, lacazette or formino?

    1. JoeJitzu +42
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Firmino plus the £1.5m

    2. Killitzer
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      i have Auba but after this article might swap to Lacazette to save some money. Arsenal have Man City and Chelsea though it's likely there will be goals

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Firmino to start with for sure, come GW3 you can make a call on the arsenal guys, safein the knowledge hat Firmino has yet another awesome fixture that week if you choose to stick

    4. Typo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Think im going laca.
      I have VVD, TAA and Salah from lfc. Think the forward line is great, but expecting early subs and I also want to spread my risk now in the start

  10. Merlinho
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Has the love gone away from Pedro - anyone still considering him short-term while monitoring Jota or Maddison?

    1. Merlinho
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Or possibly looking at Mikhi from GW3 onwards?

      1. JoeJitzu +42
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Mkhitaryan from GW3 onwards

    2. zizzou123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      If Mkhi is a regular I'll consider it but not sure he will start.

  11. FC_Dzbany
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Hi Guys,

    Jota or Sessegnon? I keep wondering and changing.

    1. JoeJitzu +42
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Think Jota

    2. Merlinho
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I'd go Jota

    3. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Jota

  12. fajmonkey
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Squeaky bum time...

    TAA and bsilva
    Or
    Robertson and pedro

    Cheers!

    1. Tomcooper9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Close but prefer Robertson and Pedro option. Pedro can easily become another of the good 6.5m mid options.

      1. fajmonkey
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  13. Inverjas
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Morata worth a punt? tell me why not!!

    1. Tomcooper9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      IMO no. Not on form, Chelsea are hard to predict as yet with new manager etc. Hasn’t played much pre season.

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Not yet. Need to see games first

    3. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No, we have a world cup winner competing with him up top.

  14. Tomcooper9
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on best option:
    A) Eriksen and 4.5m defender
    B) B.Silva and Davies

    1. Gee_mm
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B for the first few GWs

  15. Slitherene
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Ward Prowse or Redmond

    Who scores more in the run in?

    1. stilicho
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      This feels like a post from three years ago

  16. Loðbrók
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Gray nailed?

  17. Trovsmash
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    For draft:

    A. Lowton

    B. Lascelles

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  18. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    holy crap i just realised now sterling is valued at 11.0, more than kdb? wtfff

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      More points the previous season will do that

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Scored more.points last season than Kevin, to be expected really.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Sterling has been priced out of the game to be fair.

      And KDB looks like a bargain

  19. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha/Arnie to King or Jota in mid??

    Other 5.5 than Luiz?
    Maybe some United def? Or maybe Coleman/PVA?

  20. Killitzer
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which combo works better

    A. Fab + B Silva
    or
    B. Ederson + Jota

    I'm now leaning towards B although Silva has been excellent pre-season

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B for me

  21. Les Bleus
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which do you think is better?

    A) DDG, Robertson, Mane, Arnie

    B) Fabianski, TAA, Eriksen, Firmino

    Basically can’t decide whether to downgrade goalie and Robertson to get Firmino over Arnie

    1. Super Nashwan
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B looks stronger to me

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers. Worried about no United defense and TAA

    2. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers. It’s what I currently have but really want Firmino

    3. UnitedFan51
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers

    4. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

      1. Les Bleus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

  22. klopp it guys
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Best nailed 5.0 defender thst will start the season?

  23. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Would you do these transfers or shall I walk away now?

    VVD + Luiz + Arnie > 4.5m + 4.5m + Lacazette

    1. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Walk away...Laca isn’t going to outscore your current picks

  24. Super Nashwan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha or josh king?

    1. Daywalker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I think this is a tough one, but I'm going with King. Or Mitrovic.

  25. zizzou123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Gutsy but like the differential aspect. All these Everton signings have actually put me if Richarlison a bit. Will take time to gel. On the flip side already have Zaha

  26. UnitedFan51
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Mahrez + Frasier (352)
    B. B Silva + Rashford (343)
    Thanks in advance

    1. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A easy

  27. Srv210
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Lucas Moura is my punt ,has form and son's absence on his side, will be switching in few weeks..what do I say people?

    1. Shifty
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      go for it

  28. GOONER
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pickford and Alexander-Arnold starting GW1?

  29. Dirty Harry
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Quick vote lads 3-4-3

    1. Davies Jota/Rich Cairney(mid bench)
    2. 4.5def Ozil 4.5(mid bench)

    1. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1

  30. Oooof
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone else tinkered so much to find money for premiums they’ve just looked at their team and realised it’s mega punty.

    I’m taking an awful risk Lord Vader, this had better work!