Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Ne0
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which is better?
    A) PvA, Coleman, Firmino, Quaner
    B) PvA, Robertson, Arnautovic, King
    C) Robertson, Coleman, Arnautovic, King

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      C

    2. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      C

    3. UnitedFan51
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  2. ♤TeddyBear♤
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone like the look of Vietto?

    5.5 and a great goal record

    1. Oooof
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Monitoring

    2. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Who?

    3. Merlinho
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Hasn't had a great record for a few years no? Not for me currently, can't see him starting

  3. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Who are your two goalkeepers? I was on Patricio and Hamer, but after reading more, I assume that Hamer will not start.

    Any suggestions?

    1. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Foster and Fabianski but might switch Foster to Patricio because I keep seeing him in loads of teams here and they rotate fairly well.

    2. Merlinho
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Foster and Fabianski for me as I have Wolves defender.

    3. Regin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      i find it funny how optimistic people here are on a promotes side like wolves. They are after all a promoted side & to add to that, they have tough fixtures to start with. I doubt they ll keep any CS till GW6. Maybe 1.

  4. Game of Throw_ins
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pick one each for A/B/C/D:
    A1.Mane A2.Eriksen
    B1.Lacazette B2.Firmino
    C1.Zaha C2.Arnie
    D1.Richarlison D2.Jota

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1
      2
      1
      1

    2. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1221

    3. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1
      2
      1
      2

  5. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha/Arnie to King or Jota in mid??

    Other 5.5 than Luiz?
    Maybe some United def? Or maybe Coleman/PVA??

  6. Ha.
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Jota and Tosun (+2.5m)
    B. Mane and King

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Not really a fair comparison not knowing what the 2.5 is used for. From those options, obviously B

      1. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Nothing. Would have it in the bank.

  7. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A Sanchez + king
    B Fraser + auba + 0.5

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  8. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Arnie
    Zaha
    King
    Tosun

    Which 2 and why?

    1. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I have King

    2. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Zaha and King. Fixtures and I have Richarlison.

    3. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Arnie is the best quality but has bad fixtures. Tosun is the only striker in an Everton side with very good fixtures and plenty of support. Zaha is the focal point of a Palace side with good fixtures. King has shown he can scored loads but then he can also disappear for long stretches. All present their own risks. Out of those four I'd pick Tosun and Arnie or perhaps King.

    4. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Zaha and Tosun

      Fixtures. It’s also easy to downgrade one to King in the future, but not the other way around.

    5. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Depends
      If you can have Fraser in the middle, then Arnie is an option

    6. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      King
      Zaha

      Form, fixtures

    7. Reiko
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I have gone with Arnie and King. Having penalties in their locker boosts their appeal.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Does mark noble not still take penalties at West Ham?

        1. Reiko
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Will Noble even play all games? Don't think he did last season. Now they have signed Carlos Sanchez as well.

    8. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Arnie King gives lovely run of fixtures:

      CAR, BOU, EVE, WOL

      Hopefully they get

      9-9-9-9

      1. MMN
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Are you rotating them?

    9. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      King Arnie

  9. Oooof
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Bottomed

    Anyone else tinkered so much to find money for premiums they’ve just looked at their team and realised it’s mega punty.

    I’m taking an awful risk Lord Vader, this had better work!

    1. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      My team has definitely mutated and moved away from what I was set on a week or so ago in terms of plan for the season. I just need to decide whether to rip up and start again or leave as is and accept that an early WC may be inevitable anyway.

      1. Oooof
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I’m thinking exactly the same

  10. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Auba & Bilva
    B) Laca & Mahrez

    1. BBC_TF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Tomcooper9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. vartshk
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A to start, B once we know?

    4. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  11. Teror
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I was going to go with Tosun and Moura but switched to King and Richarlison so I could upgrade my 4.5 def to a 5.5. (Luiz, probably becomes Bellerin in 2 weeks). G2G or should I be more daring and switch back? But that would require playing Cairney or Cook & Tomkins...

    Foster
    Robertson - Mendy - Luiz - Cook
    Salah - Mahrez - Richarlison
    Firmino - Aguero - King

    (Fab - Cairney - AWB - Stephens)

  12. BBC_TF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    1/ i am debating doing:
    Jota/Richarlison + Sanchez > B Silva + Mane

    Yay or Nay?

    2/ Also should we give more love to Tosun vs Arnie and Zaha. Better fixtures, good end of the season and no risk of playing wing.

    1. GianniBanani
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Same problems next site. Which one will you drop: Arnie or Zaha?

  13. Loðbrók
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    King and Fraser overkill?
    Alternative is King + Kenedy/5,5

  14. HODGE
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Any 4m defender likely to play?

    1. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Wan Bissaka and Peltier. Some even said Bednarek.

    2. Beatle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      AWB

    3. Gabbiadini
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      AWB
      Peltier
      Bednarek (maybe only gw1)

    4. zizoo10
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      yes. peltier, awb, bednareky likely

    5. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Also maybe Bennett

    6. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      AWB Palace
      Peltier Cardiff
      Possibly Bednarek Southampton
      Possibly Bennett Wolves

  15. Gabbiadini
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pick 2: King/Zaha/Arnie
    Luiz/PVA
    Peltier/Bednerak
    Hamer/Stek
    best 4.5mid
    best 5.0mid

    Cheers.

  16. GOONER
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pickford and Alexander-Arnold starting GW1??

  17. Tomcooper9
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Best option:
    A) Eriksen and 4.5m defender
    or
    B) B.Silva and Davies

  18. Koflok
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Help me with these blanks..

    Patricio - Button
    Robertson - DEF1 - DEF2 - Cedric - AWB
    Salah - MID1 - MID2 - Jota - Stephens
    Kun - King - FWD 1

    a) Lacazette | Mane Richarlison | 4.5m Baily
    b) Arnie | Mane Bilva | Mendy Baily
    c) Firmino | Bilva Richarlison | Mendy Baily
    d) Lacazette | Mane Bilva | 4.5m-4.5m

    Currently on B

    And also, is Cedric & Stephens a safe choice?

    1. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Cedric will not play.

      1. JustPark
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Is he injured?

        1. ATXHorn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          illness. not quite recovered

  19. The Tinkerman
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Done. No more changes.

    Foster/Fab
    Mendy, Rovertson, Schlupp/Doherty (WBiss)
    Salah, Mane, Bilva, Richarlison (Cairney)
    Aguero, Zaha, King

    1. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I have 8 of those.

    2. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      We have the same front 7. Seems so common.

    3. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Why have both Schlupp and WBiss?

  20. ATXHorn
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Does Jorginho play too deep? Does he start? Or behind Fabs? At 5.0, if he is a starter playing ahead of Kante he might be worth a punt. Haven't seen Chelsea play yet.

    1. Oooof
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Jorginho is a holding mid

    2. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Too deep

    3. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Way I look at it, a holding player in a top 6 club can get approx 100 points over a season with appearances, clean sheets and minimal attacking returns. Hence the likes of Fernandinho, Kante and Matic score reasonably consistently. There may be more attacking players in other teams that may get more points with goals and assists, especially if on penalties, but they may be harder to predict.

      1. ATXHorn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        thanks. So go with cairney at 5.0?

        1. Hairy Potter
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          He’s an option and always looked good in the Championship when when I saw him play Newcastle. Not clear whether Mitro has taken penalties from him though.

  21. amit1964
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    should i leave cedrik on the bench, or do you think he will srart gw 1?

    thank's

  22. The Red Devil
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is schurrle too punty?
    Currently on
    Schurrle zaha king + 0.5itb I
    Would you change it?

    TIA!

  23. FantasyNik123
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I would like to put out there that I'm staying away from Zaha as he scored 7 of his 9 goals in the prem at HOME. his first home fixture is GW2 against Liverpool...

  24. deleallicious
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Sanchez/Cairney or Özil/Siggy?

    1. Oooof
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  25. Daywalker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ok, starting to involve Sanchez now.

    a) PVA, Eriksen
    b) Shaw, Sanchez

  26. Beatle
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Team News?
    Will Bailly start?
    Will Doherty start for Wolves?

  27. Mayo for Sam
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Best 4.5 keeper for the first 5 games? (Non rotating)

  28. Nolberto Solano
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which option:

    A) Jota & Auba
    B) Sanchez & Zaha

  29. Ragabolly
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Hi everyone,

    As I am helping TM in automating some aspects of the administration of the Last Man Standing league, I would really appreciate it if you could temporarily join a test league I created just to practice on and make sure my code is doing the job correctly during the first gameweek. Here is the code: 7160-883812

    This whole test league will be deleted in a few days after the testing is done. The more people to join, the merrier! Thanks in advance!

    1. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Free tea and biscuits?

      1. Ragabolly
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Infinite supply of biscuits just for you 😉

    2. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Done

    3. Oven Glover
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Joined. Happy to help.

    4. Ragabolly
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks everyone, hopefully we can get this hulked by any of the Mods around?

  30. Zladan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) PVA + Zaha
    B) Tomkins + Firmino