Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. @fpl_phenom
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    TAA & Moura

    or

    Robertson & £6.0M mid (who?)

    1. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Robertson and townsend

    2. Oooof
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      TAA and Moura I think

  2. Big Sam Time
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Most nailed 5.0 defender?

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Plenty apart from top teams

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Lascelles is class. Fixtures aren’t though 🙁

      1. Big Sam Time
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Who else?

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Tarko

    3. OldBenKenobi
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mee (currently in my team)

  3. VRP
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Ederson, Shaw, Daniels, Alexis
    Or
    B. Ddg, Robertson, Mendy, Bsilva

    1. United84
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B for me

      1. stamboy
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Agree

    2. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Dsmythy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Easy B

  4. United84
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Guys,

    A. Fraser & Tosun
    B. Richarlison & King

    Thanks!

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  5. Dacra
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on this?

    A) Eriksen + Firmino
    Or
    B) Mane + Lacazette

    Firmino and Mane are 50/50, so basically Eriksen v Laca..

    1. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  6. FPL AXE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Whats the highest predicted points that people have managed to get for the first 6 weeks using the "rate my team" tool on FFS?

    1. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      527

      1. FPL AXE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        hahaha...hmmmm not sure about that

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      728

    3. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      My team broke the RMT tool.

    4. FPL AXE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I've just realised something...none of you that have replied are actually members of FFS so you dont have access to the "rate my team" tool! hahaha

      1. Brosstan
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I'm an important member of the community thank you very much

        1. FPL AXE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Hhhmmm, your profile doesnt show as a paid member of FFS.

  7. Teror
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Tosun + Moura + Tomkins

    B. King + Richarlison + Luiz

    B makes for a more balances squad playing a 4-3-3, but I just can't say I have much faith in King

    1. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B prefer King to Tosun

    2. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  8. Gee_mm
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Aub or Arnie or Firmi ???

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I prefer aub but I went with Arnie as rest of team looks better for it

    2. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Errrrrrrm... strange question

      1. Gee_mm
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Tricky Pick.

    3. stamboy
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Arnie and use money elsewhere

  9. stamboy
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Moura, Mikhi or Pedro?

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Moura short term
      Mhki gw3
      Pedro not a fan

      1. stamboy
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

  10. bmmc89
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Cairney and Firmino
    B) B Silva and Arnie

    1. MFC86
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      a

  11. joersherman
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Mane Mitrovic PVA Cook (cook second on bench)
    B) Auba Jota Tomkins Peltier (Peltier second on bench)

  12. Pioorek
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    RMT please:

    Ederson - Fabianski
    Robertson - Coleman - Daniels - Cedric - Tomkins
    Mane - Salah - Neves - Sigurdsson - Cairney
    Arnautovic - Zaha - Aubameyang

  13. Feed tha Sheep
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Can I get a few votes please...Last decision which ones best?
    A. Eriksen Firmino Cairney
    B. Bsilva Auba Cairney
    C. Mane Laca Cairney
    D. BSilva Firmino Mhiki

    1. MFC86
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I like A

  14. Gabbiadini
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pick 2: King/Zaha/Arnie
    Luiz/PVA
    best 4.5mid
    best 5.0mid

  15. Regin
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Save points are not worth much if u concede 2 or more. People who have Fab or Patricio, if they concede 2 goals (they have tough fixtures), they have to make atleast 6 saves to get 3 points.

    1. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Switch one to Dubravka when Newcastle get past their difficult starting fixtures.

    2. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Look at Rain man over here

  16. Rossi3254
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What are peoples thoughts on Mkhi, imo he showed signs of being back to his best at the tail end of last season and if he can reproduce his output from when him and Auba teamed up at Dortmund will be a must have at 7M, plus dont really see any obvious competition for his rw spot in arsenal squad

    1. Regin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      from GW3, he could be a good option.

    2. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      That Dortmund team was a different beast all together

    3. ClaudesMackerelelé
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I thought long and hard about this. Great fixtures too. Could be one where you kick yourself but arsenal an unknown quantity atm.

      Willian also sneaking in at 7m.

  17. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    better pair:

    a) Patricio every week + Robo
    b) Kepa every week + TAA

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. KUNingas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    4. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      cheers guys!

  18. Trovsmash
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Lowton

    B. Lascelles

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A until Newcastle get past that tough start and then their players look reasonably priced given how well Rafa has them drilled.

  19. Bubz
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    The more I think about it the more I realise Firmino is probably the best value forward in the game

    1. EMERGING STAR
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yes.
      Salah and Firmino are the default picks for me. Plus one Arsenal attacker.

    2. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A lot of people are jumping to him today

    3. Neo-Viper
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Shhhhh!!

      1. MFC86
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ha ha ha my thoughts exactly

    4. Bald Eagle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Agreed, put him in instead of Arnie yesterday. Striker in one of the best attacking teams for 9.5M? Sign me up.

    5. Snikii
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      9.5 forward in the team that will either score the most goals or the second most without a big difference.

    6. Pancake
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I'm struggling with that one. For 7m you can get strikers that have a good chance in matching his 15goal and 11 assists, or at least getting close

    7. Patch
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mitro, Tosun and King at nearly 40% the price...

    8. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I have him in currently over mane and spending my name money on a mid priced mid instead

    9. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      So stop thinking and lock him in.

    10. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Auba at 11 will be after the first two!

    11. james 101
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I've had him for ages.

      He was great for me last year and the team is stronger now.

    12. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Nah that's vardy

    13. MFC86
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      When he is 10+ million we will be very satisfied

    14. kinghenry14
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      so firmino over mane?

  20. EMERGING STAR
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    This is what i got for now. Hoping for some suggestions.

    Foster(BHA)
    Lowton(SOU) Robertson(WHU) Trippier(NEW)
    Salah(WHU) Gudmundson(SOU) Richarlison(WOL) BSilva(ARS)
    Auba(MCI) Zaha(FUL) Firmino(WHU)

    Schemichel(MUN) Cedric(BUR) WanBissaka(FUL) Stephen(WAT) 0.0 itb

  21. Schober
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Need your opinion:
    DeGea
    Shaw Johnny Arnold Daniels
    Pedro Sanches Salah
    Gray Firmino Aguero

  22. Patch
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I'm bored. Can someone make a new hot topic please - need some reading on the train.

    Folks are steering away from being heavy up top (consistent for the last month the).

    What I have noticed is a gradual shift from premium defence at the start to now a beefed up mid...I reckon this is down to Man U and Chelsea defence being so dodgy!!!

    Otherwise the original model of 4/5 defenders would remain

    1. Demel
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I was sure about 5 defenders last week. Now I am shuffling between 451 and 352.

      1. Patch
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Exactly I had Luiz and Bailly complementing:

        Mendy, VVD and an enabler like Tomkin's...

        Now I have like 3 decent defenders...

        I do reckon it's down to ambiguity from Man U and Chelsea scuppering that setup

      2. Brosstan
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Still on 5 here. Impossible without a strong ish bench though.

        1. Patch
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Who is your goalie tho?

    2. Rossi3254
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I think that is just what always happens towards the start of a season everyone always starts off with the idea that premium defence is the way to go and then as the season gets closer they reinvest the money in attack as thats where they feel there will be more points potential

      1. Patch
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        If Man U keep a clean sheet tonight, I will kick myself for not staying strong with a premium defence for the first few GWs...

        1. Rossi3254
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I mean I think they probably will keep one my issue is that I have no idea which defender to have especially if Bailly is a doubt because they might only play first 2 gws and I cant afford to be that short term with a defensive pick. Have to say im tempted by Lindelof as with doubts over rb as well as cb he can cover both so may get a longer run in the team if he plays well. Didnt have a bad world cup either

  23. JJO
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Moura or Zaha?

    1. BieberIsTheKingOfPop
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      That doesn't make any sense.

      1. JJO
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Why,are they both 7m?

  24. Aladdin Sané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) TAA + 5.5 defender
    B) Robertson + 4.5 defender

  25. umerlfc
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which one?

    A) Auba + Bilva
    B) Laca + Mahrez

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  26. FPLShaqiri
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is there a detailed Mane vs Firmino argument somewhere? If not lets start one:

    A) Mane
    B) Firmino

    Give reasons please

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Firmino just personal opinion I prefer him and think he will prob get more mins as Mane usually gets subbed more often

    2. Rossi3254
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mane
      Penalties ( hopefully)
      Extra point for goal and clean sheet

      Firmino
      Better BPS potential
      Less at risk of rotation/ being subbed off after 60/70 altho with Sturridge having good pre season form this might have to be watched carefully

  27. Demel
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Christina. You said no to both Aubameyang and Sanchez. Interested to hear the rationale?

    1. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Just think Auba won't get much joy vs City week 1(I think he struggled vs the top teams last yr...?)

      Alexis is just too much once Hazard and KdB are back. I guess it's ok as a placeholder but i got burned on numerous occasions last yr with him.

      1. Demel
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks. I agree with what you are saying. The plan has been to switch him and Silva to Pogba and KDB. I think I will keep him as a placeholder. I can switch him to Aubameyang is 2 moves as well.

    2. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      You'll be waiting a while

      1. TheTinman
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I stand correctes

  28. james 101
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ok. I'm out today, so need to get this right soon!

    Pickford Foster
    Robertson Mendy Tomkins WanB Bednarek
    Salah Mahrez Richarlison Cairney Costa
    Zaha Aguero Firmino

    A. Stick
    B. Pickford to Fab (use the .5 to upgrade Tomkins to who?)
    C. Pickford to Fab (use the .5 to upgrade Bednarek to who?)
    D. Something else - what?!

    Thanks - and good luck!!)

  29. BieberIsTheKingOfPop
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Doherty or Chambers??

  30. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    As 5th mid not sure whether to go for one of decent 5m players which would allow 3-5-2 on occasions or go 4.5 with .5 in bank which could fund Mané to KDB in couple of weeks or react to any early bandwagons?

    A Neves
    B Billing and .5m in bank

    1. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Neves and just do Mane > Mahrez who will be the explosive city mid to own this year

    2. Pompel
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Your timing of posting is awful Dunas. Bottomed all the time.
      Personally I'm trying to go with 5m 5th mid (Cairney, Neves or Ralls) and also keep £0.5 itb.