Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Dog and Fox
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    TAA, Sanchez and Jota or Robertson, B Silva and Zaha? 50/50 i think som nerd hjelp!

    1. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I’m a nerd.

      B

      1. Christina.
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        hey big boy!

    2. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  2. germanyozil10
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ederson
    Mendy Baily TAA
    Salah Mane Siggy Jota
    Kun Zaha King

    Bench: 4.0 AWB Peltier Stephens

    G2G?

  3. BieberIsTheKingOfPop
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Doherty or Chambers?

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      D

  4. tattywelshie
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Guys, talk to me about Lucas Moura – looked good pre-season, is he nailed at all?

    A. Yes, nailed until Son comes back from Asian games
    B. No, Lamela will take his place

    1. Jay Arell
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A but I'm not taking the risk

    2. Reiko
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B most likely once Alli is back

  5. dimitros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Any nailed on 4.5 Forward?
    I currently have Kamara but i am concerned about all these Fulham signing(Vietto etc...)

    1. tattywelshie
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I think that's about it re forwards, a lot (well 3/4) more nailed 4.5 mids

  6. Typo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A: Fraser - Zaha

    B: Townsend - King

    1. jimmy.floyd
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. tattywelshie
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. Dannyb
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  7. BieberIsTheKingOfPop
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Moura or Eriksen??

    1. Jimjam
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Eriksen

    2. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Eriksen

    3. tattywelshie
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Ha, exactly the same question for me, Eriksen is your set and forget option, Moura, could do well for first few weeks

  8. stamboy
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What's the best formation to maximise points?

    1. BieberIsTheKingOfPop
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Usually 3-4-3

      1. David_23
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Depending on what mid you have, but 3-4-3 is the most usual

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      343

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Midfielders & defenders have the most ways to score as thy can get goals, assists, baps AND clean sheets. You can also get OOP midfielders who are actually forwards on the pitch who get midfielder points. See Mané, Salah, Alexis, Hazard etc.

      I think 5 across the middle eventually.

      Lots of cheap strikers to encourage starting with 3 up from through.

    4. Teror
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      3-5-2 actually. Midfielders tend to accumulate the most points due to free sheets, extra points for goal, etc. But generally 3-5-2 or 3-4-3

    5. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      352 because mids get more point for goal scored and cs as well.
      But looking at the options, 343 for the moment.

  9. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Mahrez & Arnautovic
    B) Jota & Lacazette

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Neo-Viper
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  10. David_23
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Found my final team:

    Foster / Patricio
    Robbo, Tomkins, Mendy / Wan-Bissaka, Boly
    Salah(C), Richarlison, Mane, B.Silva / Hudson-Odoi
    Agüero, Zaha, King

    Any suggestions on upgrading? 0,5M ITB

  11. Naboo
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    1. Is Cedric nailed when fit?
    2. Likelihood of starting GW1? Heard some positive comments from Mark Hughes on it recently but nothing in a while

  12. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Will Danny Ings start? Serious value at 5.5, should outscore most 5.5 defenders & midfielders. And a good chunk of 6.0 defenders

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      One to watch. Beautiful thing at 5.5m is you can always get him at any time and keep some change should he nail down a place and start firing.

    2. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      not sure about outscoring premium defs but would be better than most 5.5 mids

    3. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I seriously doubt it. I think I will keep Austin for the first two gameweeks and then get Arsenal players in. Solid bench gives options.

  13. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Mane's two pre season goals were both penalties. Is that him on pens now?

    Should we be concerned about open play output and someone like Shaqiri pushing for game time from a 9.5m player?

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Can see him being a 60-70mjn player

  14. villian-ty
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    G2G ? Any changes?

    Foster (Fab)
    Roberton Luiz Shaw (Tomkins, Pelter)
    Salah BSilva Miki Richardlison (Cainy)
    Ageuro Firmino King

  15. Gee_mm
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha or King for Captain ? who'd you choose

    1. SkipperTG
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Salah

    2. tattywelshie
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      King

    3. Regin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Bold move. Of the 2 King at home to Cardiff.

    4. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      King

  16. Michelle Davin
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Holebas or Kabasele?

    1. Jay Arell
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I went holebas

    2. George Sillett
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      If you're feeling adventurous Holebas who may not start , otherwise Kabasele.

  17. Jay Arell
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Bottomed.

    Anyone thinking Ralls could be a better option then Cairney for 5m? Being on pens and set pieces?

    Also, I'm seeing Cairney being subbed for Johansen quite a bit, isn't this a concern as well?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      No idea. I prefer Costa and Hughes over both of them.

  18. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is it worth to have DDG?
    Will Utd have lots of clean sheet this year?

    1. Regin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      i have the same question.

    2. V K
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I always end of thinking after every week - Wish I had DDG. Going for him this season!

      1. Regin
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        atleast he is the safest route into ManU defense.

    3. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I have him. Keep taking him out to fund other moves then putting him back again- safest MU option and should get plenty of cleanies

    4. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Too expensive for me.

  19. AMP
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Good morning gents

    Was sitting for a week on 1st team now is down to 2nd.
    Appreciate your comments pls........

    PATRICIO - 4.0
    Mendy - Robertson - PVA* - Lowton - Wan-Bissaka
    B. SILVA - Mane - Salah(C) - Jota - Stephens
    Aguero - Zaha - Arnie

    Bank - 0.0

    DDG - 4.0
    Mendy - Robertson - TOMKINS* - Lowton - Wan-Bissaka
    RICHARLISON - Mane - Salah(C) - Jota - Stephens
    Aguero - Zaha - Arnie

    Bank - 0.5

  20. SkipperTG
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Danny Ings suddenly an option anyone?

    1. Jay Arell
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Gotta wait and see

    2. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Not from the off

  21. Excuse The Kun
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Bench two

    A: Mendy (ars)
    B: Wan-B (ful)

    1: Bilva (ars)
    2: Fraser (CAR)
    3: Tosun (wol)

    1. UnitedFan51
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Very tough. B2 maybe

  22. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What do you think ? 😉

    Rui / Hamer
    Mendy / Robo / Luiz / Peltier / WB
    Salah / Mane / BSilva / Richa / Stephens
    Kun / Arnie / Zaha

    1. Nerdlinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I like it

  23. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Cairney and King
    B. Fraser and Mitrovic

    Pick one, thanks.

    1. Nerdlinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. Tev
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

  24. dimitros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Cairney Kamara
    B) Stephens Sorloth/other 5.0 FWD

  25. UnitedFan51
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A. Mahrez + Frasier
    B. B Silva + King + 0.5

  26. Nerdlinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    My Bournemouth-Palace keeper rotation relies on knowing the palace starter! Scout contradicts itself with Hennessey starting in 'team news' but Guiaita starting in pre-season minutes article. So which is it?! Anyone with any better insight? Palace fans??

    1. Naboo
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Will be Guita

    2. Robe Wan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I wouldn’t have a Bournemouth keeper. They love conceding

  27. SkipperTG
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What we saying then lads?

    A - Luiz
    B - Coleman
    C - A.N. Other

    Cheers

  28. Robe Wan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A lot of Patricio in teams but I’ve not seen a single one with Etherige

    I thought Cardiff were hard to break down?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Or was it Fulham 😉

  29. hjalmarekdal
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Pickford + Shaw
    B) single 4.5gk + Bailly

  30. Naboo
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Is anyone here playing Wan-Bisska over Mendy GW1?

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Nope, but playing both