Brighton’s latest win, the third on the bounce, may see them become Fantasy Premier League managers’ next source of budget investment.
Just two of their players have 5% or more ownership with Gameweek 10 nearing its completion, but that could change in the coming days.
In this latest Scout Notes article we have assessed which of their players are deserving of the attention and whether or not Fantasy managers should be looking to move on their Wolves assets.
Brighton 1-0 Wolves
Goals: Glenn Murray (£6.5m)
Assists: Bruno (£4.4m)
Brighton’s 1-0 win over Wolves on Saturday brought with it a third clean sheet in as many Gameweeks. After failing to keep a single one in any of their opening seven matches, the Seagulls have certainly justified their place at the top of our Season Ticker’s defence section recently. The fact that they remain at the summit for the next six fixtures suggests investment in options such as Mat Ryan (£4.5m), Shane Duffy (£4.5m) or Lewis Dunk (£4.4m) is worth considering.
“Dunk and Duffy, they are massive for us. We struggled for clean sheets at the start of the season but we have got out ship together and it’s huge for confidence.” – Glenn Murray
The two centre-backs have garnered plenty of praise for their role in the win. Both defenders recorded nine clearances, five more than any other player in the match.
The three matches in which Brighton have kept clean sheets have seen significant improvements in these figures for Dunk and Duffy, compared to Gameweeks 1 to 7. The two of them combined for an average of 9.3 clearances per game initially, but a much better 20.7 since Gameweek 8, when West Ham were dispatched at the Amex Stadium.
How much of those improvements are down to Dunk and Duffy themselves is hard to tell. What we do know is that Bruno‘s (£4.4m) return to the side in Gameweek 8, at the expense of the more forward-thinking Martín Montoya (£4.4m), coincided with the start of Brighton’s run of clean sheets. We went into more detail about how he has improved the side HERE. The 38-year-old also recorded an excellent score against Wolves, his assist and maximum bonus pulling in a total of 12 points.
It is possible that having a more experienced head at right-back has eased the pressure on Dunk and Duffy. A comparison of their heat-maps from Gameweeks 1 to 7 with ones from Gameweeks 8 to 10 shows that both centre-backs have been able to spend significantly more time in their own penalty box compared to the wider areas outside of it. Regardless of the cause, it is clear now that both players are in a better situation to help prevent goals for their team. They still also carry goal threat too with Duffy having a headed effort against Wolves hit the post in the first half.
Also playing his part in Brighton’s improved defensive prospects is goalkeeper Ryan, who made more saves against Wolves than he had in any previous league match this season (seven). He has averaged 10 points per game since Gameweek 8, having picked up additionals for saves in every appearance during that time. Ryan has done well for on the bonus points system too. In the last three Gameweeks, he has collected a total of seven (2.33 per game).
Whether this impressive run of defensive solidity can continue remains to be seen. While there have been improvements in recent weeks, Wolves were perhaps a little unlucky not to leave the Amex Stadium with a point. They dominated for possession (60%), shots (25 to 7) and accurate efforts (7 to 1). Matt Doherty (£4.9m) and Ryan Bennett (£4.2m) both missed golden opportunities to score and Brighton went unpunished.
Such a story actually tallies with the Seagulls’ previous two clean sheet victories. Between Gameweeks 1 and 7, Brighton allowed an average of 16.9 goal attempts. This has risen to 23.0 since Gameweek 8. In short, in the time that Brighton have kept more clean sheets, they have also been allowing more shots too. With the easier of their next six opponents (Cardiff, Huddersfield and Burnley) all coming on the road, where Brighton traditionally struggle, some Fantasy managers may leave their defensive options alone for now. Amex Stadium matches are usually the ones to trust Hughton’s men in but between now and Gameweek 16 they play there just twice against Leicester and Crystal Palace.
It is possible that Brighton’s recent defensive improvements have also slightly impacted their ability to find the net too. Going back to our comparison of the first seven Gameweeks with the last three, there has been a drop-off in shots, goal attempts in the box and efforts on target. Manager Chris Hughton even acknowledged this himself.
“We are not playing at our best. Nowhere near. We have players who are not at their level, we are not good on the ball but we are defending really well.” – Chris Hughton
The shining light in all of that is striker Glenn Murray (£6.6m). He came through his concussion protocol to start seven days after being knocked unconscious at Newcastle. The way in which both he and Hughton spoke about the injury after Saturday’s win reinforces Murray’s resolve to start games even when yellow-flagged.
“Glenn was always adamant he was fine, he wanted to play. Because we followed the protocol, we knew that medically he was fine to play so then it’s really about the player. He’s somebody who wants to play and wants to play as many games as possible. My thoughts were always to play him if we were able to. He’s someone that’s desperate to score goals.” – Chris Hughton
“It has been quite a long week, to be honest. It’s been a gradual week, obviously quite groggy the first few days. I took a bit of time out last weekend. Then just gradually building up and doing all the protocol to get back to play, through the FA schedule. It resulted in me training with the first team on Friday and thankfully the gaffer showed a lot of faith in me and restored me to the starting XI.” – Glenn Murray
Murray’s latest goal was his fifth one at home this season. He has now scored 40% of Brighton’s goals since they returned to the Premier League and continues to defy the usual rules of FPL goal threat. The veteran striker has just seven shots on target this season but has scored with six of them. Accordingly, he has the highest goal conversion of among forwards in 2018/19 (42.9%).
Murray probably has to be seen as the only real way to invest in the Seagulls’ attack for FPL, although he also suffers from the home/away curse too. Just one of his six goals this season have come on the road. Anthony Knockaert (£5.5m) was left on the bench for a second league match in a row almost entirely removing him from our radars following comments from Hughton last week about removing him for tactical reasons.
With Davy Pröpper (£4.8m) still out injured, there was another start in central midfield for budget man Beram Kayal (£4.4m). However, this was his first match without an attacking return since Gameweek 7.
Without wanting to sound like a broken record, it does appear that patience is still required with most Wolves assets. Yes, it was a second consecutive defeat for the newly-promoted side but they looked much better at both ends of the pitch than they did in the 2-0 defeat home to Watford.
Wolves got back to their basics of restricting their opponents to few opportunities, in fact, Brighton’s Murray scored with the hosts only shot on target of the match. While it was deeply frustrating for owners of Wolves defensive assets, such a statistic bodes well for future clean sheets. The next two matches (Spurs and Arsenal) do look tricky but Gameweeks 13 and 14 pit Wolves against Huddersfield (home) and Cardiff (away).
“It was frustrating on Saturday. I don’t know how many chances Brighton had, it didn’t feel like that many. They had half a chance and scored from it. That’s the clinical nature of the Premier League.” – Matt Doherty
“The only moment I am disappointed with is when we conceded. We did enough to deserve a different result, we bounced back from the last game. We must be optimistic.” – Nuno Espirito Santo
Nuno Espirito Santo made a change to his side for the first time this season. Diogo Jota (£6.0m) dropped out to allow former impact substitute Adama Traoré (£5.5m) his first league start of the campaign.
Doherty continued to show the threat he offers as a goal-scoring option. He found himself in dangerous positions a lot and really should have scored an opening goal in the first half when pulled wide after going clear Brighton’s penalty area. Doherty could have also have earned his side a penalty after his shot struck José Izquierdo (£5.9m) on the arm. Moving him on at a time like this does feel ill-advised.
However, striker Raúl Jiménez (£5.7m) appears to have reached the end of his usefulness to Fantasy managers. He went without a goal for the fifth straight match, while Wolves themselves have averaged just 0.33 goals per game since Gameweek 8. Meanwhile, Jiménez has been substituted in each of his last three appearances, around the hour-mark in both Gameweeks 9 and 10. In both cases, Wolves were chasing the game and Nuno has admitted improvements are needed up front.
“Of course, it’s something we have to improve (when asked about Wolves’ goal-scoring record). When you create so much, you must improve.” – Nuno
Brighton XI (4-4-1-1): Ryan; Bong, Dunk, Duffy, Bruno; Izquierdo (Knockaert 81′), Kayal, Stephens, Jahanbakhsh; March (Bissouma 71′); Murray
Wolves XI (3-4-3): Patrício; Boly, Coady, Bennett; Jonny (Bonatini 85′), Moutinho, Neves, Doherty; Traoré (Cavaleiro 61′), Jiménez (Jota 61′), Costa.
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