The Tottenham versus Chelsea fixture is an issue this week, with the Ladbrokes odds giving both teams low a probability of a clean sheets. I’ll compare their clean sheet odds in percentage terms with other teams.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have the highest chance of a clean sheet. At 58.8%, that’s above Liverpool in Gameweek 12; such is the record of Huddersfield’s attack.
Manchester City, Manchester United and Everton (50%) are next most likely, and Arsenal (27%), Chelsea (25.6%) and Tottenham (25%) have a much slimmer chance. All six teams in the fixtures at Brighton, Burnley and Fulham (yes, even Fulham) have higher probabilities of a clean sheet than those three London teams.
Attacking returns
I use the concept of expected points which basically adds the returns from each outcome, weighted by their probability. If you have a 50% chance of 2 points and a 50% chance of 6 points then you ‘expect’ 4 points, even though getting exactly 4 is unlikely.
Richarlison for captain?
At the time of writing, Richarlison has a clear lead in the gameweek 13 captain poll. There has been much discussion in the Community regarding Sergio Aguero’s poor away form.
Two players have a higher expected points total than Richarlison: Mohamed Salah (9.15 points) and the aforementioned Aguero (8.87 points). Aguero is a 60% any time goal scorer bet, with Salah at 52.4% and Richarlison at 44.4% (8.63 points expected). Raheem Sterling comes in at 8.28 points, Anthony Martial at 7.5 points and maverick pick Matt Doherty at 6.59 points.
Observation tells me that Bookmakers derive prices in quite a formulaic way. They don’t have feelings like ‘he’s going to do fantastically or blank’, or even make observations about away form. Expected team goals will have an impact and Manchester City have the shortest victory odds this gameweek. If you play the TalkSport Predictor game, you should have your banker chip on Manchester City. It is tempting to say that Richarlison is a riskier pick than Aguero with more upside but his hat-trick odds are 4.35% versus 11.76% for Aguero.
Brooks or Fraser?
The Community has discussed downgrading Ryan Fraser to David Brooks to save money as Bournemouth’s fixtures stiffen. According to Ladbrokes, that isn’t a downgrade, with Brooks a 27.8% any time goal scorer chance and Fraser at 26.3%. You could postulate that Fraser’s assist odds would be shorter if these were offered. I doubt this given my observation on formulaic pricing.
Who to bench?
Depending on the quality of your bench, you could bench a player for a tough fixture. I’d advise against a bench full of fodder as we enter the busy period.
Kieran Trippier has an expected return of 3.97 points. Only slightly better are Roberto Pereyra (4.07), Hector Bellerin (4.17), Marko Arnautovic (4.35), Ryan Fraser (4.48) and Marcos Alonso (4.53). David Brooks (4.79) beats all these, as does ghost ship passenger Ruben Neves (5.16).
Who will you be captaining this week?
If the bookmakers can ignore Aguero’s away form, should you follow?
Are you prepared to bench a normal starter for a tough fixture and if not, is this because your bench leaves you no option?
