Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 14

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 13 REVIEW

Another green arrow for our Crowd Wisdom user last week – a fourth in a row – which means the aggregated crowd predictions are beating 86% of people on Superbru.

GAMEWEEK 14 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW14:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling are the favoured options in the Captain Poll this week, and the crowd are expecting Man City to score at least 3 goals.  Chelsea and Liverpool are the next best options, with 2.52 and 2.22 predicted goals respectively, and this is reflected in the poll with Eden Hazard and Mo Salah as the 3rd and 4th most popular picks.

In defence, Chelsea and Man City are predicted to keep clean sheets at home to Fulham and Bournemouth respectively, whilst Crystal Palace, Leicester, Wolves and Newcastle offer the budget-friendly defensive options.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr. Crowd Wisdom this week.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data, and you could win some cash.