Spot the Differential
4 October 2019 911 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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With many of the highly-owned players failing to deliver in recent weeks, differentials are becoming more and more important to Fantasy Premier League managers.

In Gameweek 7, the top 10 points-scorers all had single-digit ownership levels, proving that many of this season’s top performers are still hiding away.

It was another good week for this regular column though. Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.2m) lived up to their billing by registering a goal each.

Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend. Here are three exciting players owned by 5% or less ahead of Gameweek 8.

Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez has been in exceptional form recently

Price: £8.6m 

Ownership: 4.9% 

GW8 Opponent: Wolves (H)

A player averaging 6.4 points per game is always hard to ignore in FPL, although Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m) is much more of a hidden gem right now because he plays for Manchester City.

Had it not been for their ‘Pep Roulette’ rotation system, the former Leicester man probably would have been an essential asset weeks ago.

However, a unique opportunity has emerged which makes Mahrez a viable option, at least for now. 

With fitness concerns over Kevin de Bruyne this weekend and the risk of Bernardo Silva missing out (perhaps long-term), Mahrez seems likely to be involved from the start against Wolves.

Despite only starting four league games since August, he has registered two goals and five assists – one every 57 minutes. 

Mahrez has the same amount of FPL points as Sadio Mané despite offering a saving of £3.0m, which shows how appealing his points per million is.

The Algerian’s underlying statistics almost seem too good to be true and some may say that they are skewed. But form is all that matters to me. 

Over the last two Gameweeks, among all midfielders, Mahrez has the most number of touches in the opponents’ half (127) and the most number of touches in the final third (90). 

For good measure, he’s also had 9 attempts on goal during the same period – only John McGinn has had more. That in itself speaks volumes and boosts his credibility.

Man City are due to face a potentially fatigued Wolves team this weekend that lacks the squad depth to effectively manage their Europa League and Premier League commitments. If Mahrez starts, it would be hard to say he won’t be involved in the goals.

Andriy Yarmolenko

Yarmolenko has been in good form recently and earns a recall to the differentials picks

Price: £6.0m

Ownership: 4.0%

GW8 Opponent: Crystal Palace (H)

For this first time this season, I’ve decided to repurpose one of my picks from last week. 

Yarmolenko’s wnership has increased by 2.7% but is thankfully still below the 5% threshold and capable of propelling his owners up the rankings.

The West Ham midfielder has now registered three goals in his last four league games. For all midfielders priced at £6.5m or less he currently has the best points per game average (5.5). 

Also, during the last two Gameweeks, Yarmolenko has registered the joint-fifth most amount of touches in the final third among all midfielders (54). 

This Michu-esque form shows that he’s getting in the right advanced areas and is being rewarded for his efforts.

It is clear that Yarmolenko’s minutes were being managed in August and early September, to ease him back in after his long injury lay off but he’s now beginning to play the entirety of games. 

For this campaign, he is currently averaging a goal for every 125 minutes played, which is very respectable for a budget midfielder. 

Provided he stays fit and can maintain good performance levels he could end up with at least a dozen goals by the end of the season. 

West Ham’s next opponents are Crystal Palace. The Hammers have scored 10 goals in their last five matches against the Eagles and I expect more from them with Yarmolenko at the helm.

Oli McBurnie 

McBurnie will probably enjoy playing against Watford’s poor defence

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 0.1% 

GW8 Opponent: Watford (A)

If you’re short on cash up top and are willing to take a substantial risk on an uber-differential then look no further than Oliver McBurnie (£5.9m). 

The Sheffield United forward has started four consecutive Premier League games for his team and, since Gameweek 6, among players priced at £6.0m or less, he has the joint-third highest number of shots on goal.

That period has pitted the Blades against Everton and Liverpool, so there’s every reason to believe he can continue to provide threat against Watford.

 Of course, it’s a concern that he’s only scored one Premier League goal during his entire career, which includes an additional 16 appearances for Swansea City. 

But last season he demonstrated his ability to find the net regularly and seems to be gradually adapting to life as a top-flight centre-forward.

In the Premier League, he clearly won’t match his goal tally from last season but I expect him to gradually improve by each Gameweek. 

Vicarage Road on Saturday could serve as an ideal opportunity for him. The Hornets have been completely woeful recently, even after their managerial change. 

McBurnie and Sheffield United could cause them more trouble after having impressed against some of the league’s more established teams since Gameweek 1.

Lessons Learned from Gameweek 7

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  1. JenkoJunko
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Evening all! Nightmare this GW!

    Current squad:
    Pope Button
    AWB VVD Digne Soy Lund
    Salah Sterling KDB Mount Yarmo
    Greenwood Pukki Jota

    Options: AWB & Jota to.... -4
    A. Ota & Wood/Barnes
    B. Rico & Haller
    C. Rico & Abraham
    D. Timori & Haller
    E. Timori & Abraham
    Orrrrr...
    F. Digne & Jota to Ota & Haller

    Any help would be great! Hard one this week. GL all!

    1. KingOllie
      7 years, 28 days ago

      E is probably best.

      I have Haller and if he blanks this week im selling

      1. bigdip
        7 years, 28 days ago

        agreed

      2. JenkoJunko
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Can see Haller scoring this week.... Good fixture, No Milivojevic and Lanzini is back which is good for him. Thanks though.

  2. Miguel Sanchez
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Hmmm with minutes doubts for Son and Mount I might just swap Aguero to Auba so I have some more certain 90 minute players this GW. Is this a good enough reason?

    1. Rainer
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Whats up with Mount?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Probably nothing but FPL scaremongering and a lot of minutes recently.

    2. fr3d
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Will be interesting to see if Mount plays 90 or 87 minutes

    3. payetisgod
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Just raised a question about this on previous page ha! is there any substance to this?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Son yes, Mount probably less so

        1. St Pauli Walnuts
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          7 years, 27 days ago

          Just catching up, why is Son a risk?

    4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      im not sure. do you have any other city player??

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Sterling

  3. bigdip
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Ryan (Button)
    Otamendi, TAA, VVD (Digne Lundstram)
    Mount Salah, Sterling (C) Cantwell (Dendocker)
    Abraham Haller, Pukki

    0.5 ITB.
    Save FTand do Digne & Pukki to Tomori & Vardy for no hit next GW?

  4. fr3d
    7 years, 28 days ago

    KdB keepers, who's first on your bench this week?

    Salah for me

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      LoL
      Guilbert here

    2. Eleven Hag
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Auba

      1. Tempestic
        7 years, 27 days ago

        Cant captain him if hes on ur bench

    3. Old and Slow
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Cantwell

  5. JJeyy
    7 years, 28 days ago

    KDB to Mahrez worth it if means if Son gets benched I will get Lundtram off the bench?

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Son will get minutes off the bench even if he doesn't start

    2. teneighty
      7 years, 28 days ago

      What's wrong with Lundstram against a goal shy Watford?

      1. Old and Slow
        7 years, 28 days ago

        This... I'm starting him vs Watford

  6. Aftermath
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Select one for this week

    A. Cresswell
    B. Saka
    C. Rico

    1. Rainer
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Saka.

      Take advantage before Laca is back.

    2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      saka didnt play in europe right? think he will play against bournemouth?

    3. GENERATION X
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Great frontline soon of Auboom Saka Laca

  7. rowdog24
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Tell me I’m wrong

    WC team

    Pope (Button)
    Tomori, Soyuncu, Diop (Lund, Rico)
    Salah, Sterling, Mount, Yarmo (Donk)
    Auba, Vardy, Abraham

  8. Dynamic Duos
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Rp

    1. Dynamic Duos
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Fail

  9. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    KDB >

    A) Mahrez

    B) D Silva

    C) Son

    D) other

    1. Eleven Hag
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Pepe

    2. Dynamic Duos
      7 years, 28 days ago

      A

    3. Lecky Legs FC
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Pepe

    4. payetisgod
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Im back and forth between A and B : Might be nice to have D Silva when Aguero bangs a hatty as a non owner as hopefully he would assist a few of them ha!

    5. CelticBhoy1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Hmmm Pepe could be a good shout

    6. Old and Slow
      7 years, 28 days ago

      D... Hold... Unless you aren't going to want him back for gw9 and pay a premium to get him...I guess that depends on what you paid

  10. Pukki Blinders
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Greenwood --> Ayew a decent one week punt against whu away?

  11. Boss Hogg
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Which is the better pairing?

    a. Mahrez and Haller
    b. Yarmolenko and Auba

    ???

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B

    2. Dynamic Duos
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B

    3. L S P
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B

    4. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B

    5. Don Kloppeone
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Would B be for -4 and A for free?

      I am weighing up exactly these 2 options vs just keeping Kev and having my bench come on

  12. Dynamic Duos
    7 years, 28 days ago

    KDB and Aurier to Mahrez and Otamendi -4?

    Current team

    Pope
    TAA Tomori xxx
    Salah Mount Son xxx
    Vardy Abraham Haller

    Button Cantwell* Soyuncu Hanley*

    Rp

    1. The 12th Man
      7 years, 28 days ago

      There decent moves

  13. Dthinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Okay people. I need a long-term replacement for Fabianski. I am leaning towards Leno, despite Aresnal's woeful defense because none of the other keepers I can afford are playable for more than one or two fixtures:

    1. Pope- has two decent-ish fixtures, but I can see Everton scoring a few, and then he plays Chelsea
    2. Guaita-Plays WHA, but then two rough matches
    3. Schmeichel-plays LIV next, but pretty good after that (maybe I bring in McGovern this week and Schmeichel next?)
    4. Heaton-Surely Pukki is due a goal

    So I can't see any option better than Leno. Or should I just pick one for the next two fixtures and deal with it later?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      7 years, 28 days ago

      3

      1. Dthinger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        7 years, 28 days ago

        McGovern for one week and then Schmeichel? or just Schmeichel straight away?

        1. Dynamic Duos
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Just get kasper

  14. That Fantasy Guy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Calum Chambers - Nailed?
    Looking to use 1 of my 2 FT to bring him in for Lascelles

    1. Boss Hogg
      7 years, 28 days ago

      No way nailed.

  15. FDMS All Starz
    7 years, 28 days ago

    My subs:

    Dendonker - Soy - Wickham (I have Kdb)

    Would you do Dendo —> Saka (free) or save the FT?

  16. Ask Yourself
    7 years, 28 days ago

    KDB > Felipe Anderson done. Tell me i’m A naughty boy.

    1. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      You already know

    2. fr3d
      7 years, 28 days ago

      That's enough internet for today

    3. Gooner Kebab
      7 years, 28 days ago

      What a hero

    4. GENERATION X
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Sounds more like Hans Christian Anderson

    5. Ask Yourself
      7 years, 28 days ago

      These are all just the responses I wanted thanks guys

  17. Flynny
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Hi....any advice on what to do here please? 0itb. Plan to wildcard after deadline

    Pope
    Vvd ota guilbert (rico soy)
    Salah Sterling kdb James (cantwell)
    Haller abraham pukki

    A....kdb to Mahrez (I'll want kdb back on wildcard at a potential loss of a vital 0.2m)

    B ..Cantwell to saka at 1 week punt

    Thanks

    1. Pukki Blinders
      7 years, 28 days ago

      I am in the same situation, I will likely do B. Loss of 0.2 isn't worth it imo

    2. Pukki Blinders
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Also Saka not playing EL is a positive sign he'll start on the weekend

      1. Flynny
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Cheers. Tend to agree

  18. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    KDB replacement for this GW;
    Could this GW be finally a good one for Pepe? Bournemouth at home...and 100% nailed. Or do we trust Mahrez starts ?

    1. Boss Hogg
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Mahrez should start.

      1. CelticBhoy1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        7 years, 28 days ago

        I'm currently making the same call. I've got Otamendi & Sterling captain but no Arsenal players, so Pepe could be a better option to spread the risk

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Mahrez is hot and should start

    3. Lecky Legs FC
      7 years, 28 days ago

      I'm one week punting on him this weekend will bring KDB back after IB if fully fit might aswell go for it BOU at (H) could be were be gets confidence and starts scoring goals

  19. Boss Hogg
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Best defender for 4.5m or less?

    1. Rainer
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Lundstram.

      1. Boss Hogg
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Apart from Lundstram!!

        1. Dr. Agabuse
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Lundstram

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Rico

    3. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Tomori?

      1. Boss Hogg
        7 years, 28 days ago

        0.1 short of Tomori!

      2. Dthinger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        7 years, 28 days ago

        never mind. He's 4.6

  20. Niho992
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Kane and Nakamba to Auba and Saka for a hit?

    Or just Kane to Auba and play Lundstram

  21. Al-Chemy
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Currently got KDB, Cantwell, Aurier and Hayden on my injury list with no free transfers. Should I

    A) get rid of Aurier (-4), and can get in Bardy after IB
    B) Aurier and KDB out for Tomori and Sterling?
    C) just wait and hope Cantwell plays

  22. Legohair
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Sorry guys i havent watch any news about kdb all week, how long is he out? Thanks and sorry...

    1. Pinturicchio10
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Until after the IB I think.

      1. Legohair
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Ok, is it good move for maybe just one week to do kdb->pepe? I bought kdb 9.9 so no major loss there and he might even drop i guess...

        1. Pinturicchio10
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Really don't like the look of this Pepe guy to be honest. Good fixture I suppose but that's about all I can say.

          1. Legohair
            7 years, 28 days ago

            Yeah its differential i think and yes hes been weak so far but he will start to score points sooner or later thats for sure.

  23. joelsprylar
    7 years, 28 days ago

    I was thinking of roll the FT but since KDB is out i feel like i need to make a move. What to to here guys?

    1ft, 0,1 itb
    Pope
    TAA, VVD, Mina, Lundstram,
    Mane, Sterling, KDB*, Mount
    Pukki, Abraham

    Ryan, Lanzini, Martinelli, Soyuncu

    Bought De Bruyne for 9.5

    1. De Bruyne to Mahrez
    2. Lanzini to Yarmolenko
    3. Something else tasty?
    4. Save and hope that Lanzini will play

  24. Miguel Sanchez
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Best captain this GW from:

    A) Auba (BOU)
    B) Kun (WOL)
    C) Sterling (WOL)

    1. Hits from the Bong
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B if KDB was playing. Can’t decide between B and C now

    2. Dynamic Duos
      7 years, 28 days ago

      A if chasing , C if good OR atm.

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Possibly in that order

    4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      auba

  25. FPL Forward Thinker
    7 years, 28 days ago

    I’d suggested Foden was not part of Pep Roulette

    Sterling Aguero Mahrez
    Dilva Rodri Bilva

    Was my prediction with Gundog and Jesus on bench and that Foden was not part of the starting equation.

    However, Foden started the Premier league fixture the last time Man City played Champions League and Premier league double header at Etihad days apart (April v Spurs)

    So let’s not even rule out Foden from Roulette Equation

  26. Pinturicchio10
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Anyone else confident of a good score but not so confident of a green arrow this week? Have that weird feeling about this gw.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      7 years, 28 days ago

      I never know what to expect in FL to be honest

      1. Pinturicchio10
        7 years, 28 days ago

        True. You know what I mean though.. like 50-60 might not be enough for a rank jump even though its a very reasonable score.

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Bournemouth to beat Arsenal 3-1
      Jesus to score a brace
      Maddison to ruin the Liverpool CS

      Its all bound to happen 🙂

      1. Pinturicchio10
        7 years, 28 days ago

        I like the first bit 😀

      2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
        7 years, 28 days ago

        liverpool cs already ruin by absence of matip

    3. Pinturicchio10
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Pope
      Lundstram / Tomori / Otamendi / TAA
      Salah v / Sterling c / Son
      Pukki / Wilson / Abraham

      Start at -4. See what I mean... its good but its not great....

    4. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Nope.
      Too many injuries and red arrows since GW3.

      1. Pinturicchio10
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Oh dear. Tough run huh? 🙁

  27. Hits from the Bong
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Any chance Tomori survives tonight? 99.5% on fplstats

    1. FPL Forward Thinker
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Was 95.3 earlier in the day

      Personally think he’ll be 4.7 Tomori morning

    2. Pinturicchio10
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Highly doubt it. No reason for the trend to change at this time.

  28. Alexis Nonsense
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Play:

    A) Lundstram (Clean sheet likely?)

    B) Pereira (No clean sheet but attacking return vs. Liverpool is possible)

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      7 years, 28 days ago

      lundstram

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      7 years, 28 days ago

      No point owning a 6 m defender of you don't play him imo

    3. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      id play pereira ofc

  29. Eytexi
    7 years, 28 days ago

    best 5.5m mid? Hearing Saka's name thrown about a lot.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Jorginho?

      If you're maxed on Chelsea players, then Saka could be a good short term punt. Likely to play LW vs Bournemouth.

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Short term could be gold for his price actually

    3. FPL Forward Thinker
      7 years, 28 days ago

      4.5 (rested last night) looks really decent short term.

      Just check that he wasn’t left out last night for any other reason

    4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      saka but really short form until laca back

  30. konrad.sygula95
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Would You wildcard this team?

    Pope
    Zinchenko/Digne/Robertson
    Salah/Sterling/Kdb/Mount/Cantwell
    Pukki/Jota

    Bench: Heaton/Lundstram/Montoya/Greenwood