DIFFERENTIALS = ANTONYMS OF BANDWAGONS

Throughout the season, a plethora of renowned Fantasy Premier League contributors, your brother-in-law, and Peter at the office will undoubtedly proclaim to have discovered the greatest gem in FPL history – an underpriced, underappreciated mercurial player.

Who can ever forget John Lundstram’s (£5.5m) startling season and subsequent gargantuan price rise? However, despite these incessant claims, it is clear that these assertions come to fruition less often that an unchanged Pep Guardiola starting line-up!

There is no strictly defined definition for a differential, but the common consensus in FPL terms is a player with an ownership of below 10%, preferably 5% to be classified as a low-owned player.

There is a profound and irresistible lure that compels us into being the only person among seven million competitors with sufficient courage to back that 1% owned streaky winger the one gameweek (all season) he bags a hat-trick.  Unfortunately for me; for every Lundstram there are infinite Lys Moussets (£5.0m), Che Adams (£6.0m) and Alex Iwobi’s (£5.5m) eager to dash my mini-league aspirations.

CAN DIFFERENTIALS HELP YOU WIN YOUR MINI-LEAGUE?

It’s interesting to note that only 42 out of the 510 players available on the FPL game have over 10% ownership – a figure of approximately 8%.  The sheer deluge of potential player options determines a wide array of players will be picked in various squads – yet for some reason, the first 30 most popular players have over 600% combined ownership; significantly more than the 525% combined ownership of the other 480 players.

This is feasibly proof that if a hypothetical squad were to consist of players solely outside the top 30 most popular, the potential upside benefits of a high scoring Gameweek would be increasingly significant, as this would trigger a major rank rise over squads packed with the high-ownership ranked players.

Unfortunately, this is not always the case, and the differential theory has often been mistakenly cited as a refute to the ‘template squad’, whereby a team consists of solely highly owned players.  For the differential squad to ascend the table over the template team, it means that their players must, as defined by the rules of FPL, score more points combined than those in the template team.  Furthermore, ownership generally corresponds with consistency and performance, which means that the likelihood of a low-owned player outscoring their more popular colleague on a regular basis is frequently implausible.

In summary, this means that a differential whose point output can surpass other alternatives is exponentially more valuable than a higher owned player with less points with regards to a rise in the overall position.  Then again, I did finish 6,893,312 last season so feel free to disagree (I’m joking, I hope….)

So buckle up, have your fingers poised on that transfer button, and get ready to unleash these fear-evoking differentials onto your mini-league rivals.

DIFFERENTIAL XI (WITH SUBS)

GOALKEEPERS

Emiliano Marinez (£4.5m)

Any takers for a starting Arsenal goalkeeper priced at £4.5m?

My personal strategy is that I tend to favour £4.5m goalkeepers, as it provides more flexibility for me to invest further up the pitch.  Seemingly the majority of the fantasy contingent also adopt that strategy as Matt Ryan (£4.5m) and Alex McCarthy (£4.5m) both reside among the top three highest owned keepers.

This year, the low-budget differential options are relatively limited as only Casilla/Meslier (£4.5m) and Rodak  (£4.5m) are nailed-on starters, but I believe that Emiliano Matinez, lurking around the 8% ownership is conceivably a gem of an FPL differential.  Despite facing stiff competition with the return of the injured Bernd Leno (£5.0m), Arteta crucially selected Emiliano Martínez over Leno as the starting keeper in the Community Shield final.  Leno ranked in  the top seven goalkeepers for saves made last season, despite missing 770 minutes, which suggests that the Arsenal goalkeeper will rack up a substantial number of save points and bonus points during the course of the season.

Arteta was quoted as saying

Last season, when Bernd got injured, if somebody had some doubts about Emi’s character or qualities then he’s shown what he’s able to do and he didn’t do it for one game, he did it for 10 or 11 games in a row.

This extract seems to confirm the manager’s preference for the ball playing qualities of Martínez and bodes well for FPL managers.

David Button (£4.0m) (sub)

Button has been a mainstay in almost every FPL team over the last few years, despite only ever achieving 15 FPL points. The 31 year old shot stopper recently earned a move to Premier League new-boys West Brom, and re-iterated his desire to claim the number one shirt, stating

I have ambitions of playing and helping the team as much as possible.

This is a archetypical example of a low-risk, high-reward scenario whereby the potential benefits eclipse the comparatively minimal downsides to your squad.  He made 3.5 saves per 90 during his rare starts at Brighton, and unless he has decided the Baggies bench is considerably more comfortable than the AMEX alternative, it seems likely that the ideal rotating keeper paradigm will come to fruition.

DEFENDERS

Lucas Digne (£6.0m)

Crimininally underappreciated for a player with his pedigree, but the counter-argument is that his is simultaneously criminally overpriced.  If the former Barca man were to be valued £0.5m cheaper I am sure he would be extremely in-demand.  Digne attempts almost 9 crosses per game and over 13 passes per game in the final third which illustrates the potent attacking threat he represents. Digne also racked up eight clean sheets last season, and with decent opening fixtures coinciding with the arrival of defensive lynchpin Allan to shore up the defence, it could be the catalyst for an extremely successful season if he can beat his 2018/19 points tally of 158.

Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) 

Lamptey created three big chances in just seven games last season for Brighton, and could emerge as this season’s re-incarnation of Lundstram should Graham Potter utilise him as a wide-left-midfielder.  His playing time looks set to quadruple, and the return of on-loan Ben White (£4.5m) will improve the Seagull’s clean sheet potential.

Reece James (£5.0m)

Reece James could become a FPL revelation if he succeeds in permanently locking down the right back position at Stamford Bridge.  However, he faces stiff competition from Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.0m) in his endeavours, as the exciting Englishman seeks to build upon his impressive 1500 odd minutes last season.  In 2019/20 Reece James’ expected assists of 0.19 per game bettered that of of his rival Azpilicueta (0.17) and also significantly trumped Wan Bissaka’s xA at 0.10 per ninety.

William Saliba (£4.5M) (sub)

Having caught the eye of many Arsenal fans whilst on loan at St.Etienne, Saliba’s impressive stats provide a solid case that he is a superior defender than David Luiz (£5.5m).  He outperformed the Brazilian in terms of aerial duels, tackles, interceptions and recoveries per game, although Luiz bettered him with regards to the pass completion metric. Given Ateta’s preference for a two centre back system, and his fondness for deploying Luiz as a ball-playing defender, it is yet to be determined which of Saliba and the pricier Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.0m) will claim the starting berth.  If Saliba can cement a starting spot, then his 4.4% ownership will rise exponentially.

Tyrick Mitchell (£4.0m) (sub)

Due to an unprecedented injury crisis at Selhurst Park, Tyrick Mitchell will begin the season as Palace’s starting full back. Alongside similar ‘injury caused replacements’ such as James Justin (£4.5m) and Ruben Vinagre (£4.5m) he has a relatively high ownership bracket of marginally over 7%.

However, Palace’s woeful run of form at the end of last season, combined with their lack of experienced defensive recruits means their clean sheet credentials are far from secure.

MIDFIELDERS

Bukayo Saka (£5.5m) 

Twenty eight appearances last season is impressive for a then eighteen year old, and the sky’s the limit for the marauding FPL midfielder. In particular his versatility and ability to play as a left winger, left back and wide midfielder could mean he sees a similar amount of appearances this season.  An out-of-position asset is prized amongst FPL bosses, but Saka was occasionally deployed as a left back last season which limited his attacking impetus.  However, six assists and one goal is an impressive tally, and an ownership of 9% means many prospective owners have a high-potential differential on their watch list heading into Gameweek 1.

Phil Foden (£6.5m)

It seems like the ‘Stockport Iniesta’ has been warming the Citizen’s bench for decades now, but I believe that the 20/21 season will be pivotal for Phil Foden.  The creative maestro embraced his opportunity at the tail end of last season, averaging an insane 4.1 shots and 3.6 crosses per game in all competitions.  The departure of club legend David Silva to Real Sociedad leaves a hole in the Man City midfield, and the lack of a big-name signing indicates that Guardiola will put his faith in the twenty year old, which will be extremely good value with regards to FPL.

Matheus Pereira (6.0m) 

The tricky Brazilian winger bagged 8 goals and 17 assists in the EFL Championship last season, incredibly 5 more assists than the highly touted Emiliano Buendia managed the season before, whilst matching his goals return.  The prospect of him combining with the explosive Grady Diangana (£5.5m) is also mouth-watering, particularly as Pereira’s underlying stats highlight his upside potential, as he created a league high 18 big chances last season.

Raheem Sterling (11.5m)  

It seems incredible that a full established international superstar and Man City’s second best attacker last season somehow sits in under 5% of FPL player’s teams.  He has consistently proven himself as a valuable FPL asset, recording over 17 goals without fail over the last three years and treacherous opening fixtures (including blank GW1) should not wane a significant chunk of interest in the consistent winger.  He has clearly established himself as a regular City starter amidst the infamous Pep Rotation and is the only player (alongside Mo Salah) to have recorded three consecutive 200 point seasons. He’s in just 4.5% of teams, by the way!

Dele Alli (£8.0m)

The arrival of defensive midfielder Pierre Emille Hobjerg (£5.0m) could revitalise the fortunes of Dele Alli and enable him to move into his favoured attacking mezzala role.

Alli shone sporadically last season, his 9 goals and 10 assists in 2017/18 highlighting the unbridled ability of the 24 year old. In the deeper role, his creative output stalled as his 1.3 dribbles per 90 is less than the previous two seasons where he recorded 1.4 and 1.6 retrospectively.  His shots per 90 of 1.8 is also less than the 2.0 and 2.1 the preceding seasons which indicates that a new role could spark a return to the Alli of old and provide a valuable source of Fantasy points.

FORWARDS

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m)

A revitalised Everton look set to thwart their rivals in their pursuit of European football.  The glamorous big name signings will undoubtedly improve the spine of an already solid team, with the creative influence of  James Rodriguez (£7.5m) sure to put chances on a platter for the Englishman.  Indeed, Rodriguez averaged 28 touches in the box per 90 in the Bundesliga, significantly higher than the Toffee’s attacking midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson (£7.0m), who averaged just 3 per game. Calvert-Lewin’s 13 goals is also an impressive return, with his price hike reflecting his ability.

Eddie Nketiah (£6.0m) 

Another one from the Arsenal contingent is their academy product Eddie Nketiah.  The dynamic attacker scored just two Premier League goals last season, but shone in both the FA Cup and League Cup campaigns, averaging 85% pass completion rate per game, as opposed to Lacazette’s 77%.  With his French team-mate supposedly falling out of favour at the Emirates, Nketiah will hopefully feature as the out and out striker, whilst Arteta continues to use Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang (£12.0m) as an inverted winger on the left.

Che Adams (6.0m) (sub)

Ignoring his dismal start to last season, Che Adams could be an intriguing option for your first team. The former Birmingham man was exemplary in the preceding season, notching a career-high 22 goals in the Championship.  His form picked up dramatically towards post-lockdown, which saw his season tally increase to four goals and assists.  Southampton have favourable opening fixtures, including an opener against struggling Palace, and Adams, at 2.4% ownership could epitomise a high-risk, high-reward punt.

ARE DIFFERENTIALS HIGH-STAKES GAMBLES?

The many potential advantages to including differentials are outlined above, and this strategy attains better outcomes in smaller sample sizes, as a larger quantity of players have under 10% ownership in individual mini-leagues.

My personal Fantasy bugbear is realizing that price rises and falls have contrived so that my remaining cash is 0.1m in the red, when I am about to welcome in a differential with a surefire upcoming points haul.  Somehow, this bargain Differential XI comes in at precisely £89m, leaving £11m languishing in the coffers.

Regardless of any perceived benefits or not, there is no denying that that a spur-of-the-moment high-stakes gamble causes much more thrills, pure joy and ecstasy if it reaps an equivalent reward to the ‘template team’, particularly if you took a point hit.  At three am in the morning, whilst potentially under the influence, these high-stakes punts evoke excitement into all of our hearts.  And isn’t that what Fantasy Premier League is all about.

Thank you for reading this article, and feel free to leave any suggestions for the next article,tips for Fantasy Football Scout Community Trials, opinions or advice in the comment section.

Thanks again,

FPL Gaffer