Spot the Differential
11 September 2020 2172 comments
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

As always, we’ve selected three players with an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing, who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Christian Pulisic

Willian and Pulisic make case for Chelsea double-up with Norwich on horizon
  • FPL ownership: 6.6% (4.8% at the time of writing)
  • Price: £8.5m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: bha | LIV | wba | CRY | SOU

Despite a slow start, Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) enjoyed a fine first season at Chelsea, and hit top gear upon the Premier League’s resumption back in June.

The United States international contributed a combined eight goals and assists in just nine league appearances during Project Restart, and went on to score in the FA Cup final defeat to Arsenal.

That kind of output suggests a big campaign lies ahead.

In yesterday’s press conference, manager Frank Lampard confirmed Pulisic is in contention for Monday’s trip to Brighton, and with an ownership of just 4.8% at the time of writing, could be an explosive differential for those willing to gamble on him starting. Saying that, an appearance off the bench might not be the end of the world for owners, considering his ability to haul from limited minutes, as evidenced at Anfield last season.

The Blues’ opponents in Gameweek 1, Brighton and Hove Albion, head into the season with plenty of optimism themselves after a busy transfer window, though it’s worth noting they shipped 11 goals in just three home games against Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United during the restart, while doubts linger over their ability to keep things tight against the best attacking setups in the league. 

Following the arrivals of Kai Havertz (£8.5m), Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m) and Timo Werner (£9.5m), competition for places at Chelsea is fierce right now. However, we think this could have a positive effect on Pulisic, who could now take his game to another level and thrive alongside such quality.

James Ward-Prowse

  • FPL ownership: 4.7%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: cry | TOT | bur | WBA | che

James Ward-Prowse (£6.0m) may only have registered nine attacking returns last term, but with the Saints going from strength-to-strength, we’re backing the England international to kick on this season.

A product of the Saints academy, Ward-Prowse has become a vital part of manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s midfield unit, and played every minute of the club’s 2019/20 Premier League campaign. 

It has been suggested the departure of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (£5.0m), and re-introduction of Oriol Romeu (£4.5m) to the starting XI, will give the Southampton captain a bit more freedom to get forward, which is encouraging, but there is no getting away from the fact his ability from set-pieces and delivery from wide areas is the main attraction.

Ward-Prowse whipped in a massive 72 crosses from Gameweek 30+ onwards, more than any other player, while his 20 shots ranked joint-ninth amongst midfielders. Add to that free-kicks, corners and a share of penalties with Danny Ings (£8.5m), and we think there is a lot to like here. 

After a disappointing start to last season, Southampton performed well once Hasenhüttl had settled on his 4-4-2 / 4-2-2-2 system. Their away form was only bettered by Liverpool and Manchester City, while just the Manchester clubs collected more points during Project Restart.

The Saints are unbeaten in their last five league matches on the road, and take on a Crystal Palace side in Gameweek 1 who have won just four games all calendar year, all of which bodes well for Ward-Prowse and Southampton’s prospects this weekend.

Dele Alli

  • FPL ownership: 3.3%
  • Price: £8.0m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: EVE | sou | NEW | mun | WHU

This season feels like a defining moment for Dele Alli (£8.0m), after another disappointing campaign last time round.

However, his performances under Jose Mourinho in the early weeks of his tenure offers hope he may be able to find his best level again. 

Under Mourinho’s stewardship, there was an immediate improvement in Alli’s output, which saw him go on a run of four goals and three assists in five matches, while his underlying statistics suggest he may be being overlooked.

Since Mourinho’s first game in charge, amongst midfielders, only Raheem Sterling (£11.5m), Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) and Sadio Mané (£12.0m) accumulated big chances at a faster rate. His expected goal data was also encouraging, and trumped that of team-mate Son Heung-min (£9.0m), despite seeing fewer minutes.

While I’m unsure how much we can read into pre-season, Alli’s displays have offered promise, having registered two assists in a 3-0 home win over Ipswich Town before scoring in a 4-1 victory at Reading.

Up first for Tottenham Hotspur is Everton. While the Toffees’ will no doubt look a much better unit with their new midfield recruits, it may take time for them to gel, while their poor away record last term saw them concede 35 goals – only five teams gave up more.

Heading into the new season, it is vital for Alli to keep himself fit and find a bit more consistency in his performances. If he can do that, while retaining an attacking midfield role, he could be in for a big season.

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2,172 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Ser Davos
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Vinagre v KWP

    One of Alli, Son, Havertz, Pulisic

    Ferguson v Mitchell

    1. subhojit123
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Kwp
      Pulisic
      Mitchell

    2. Manani
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      KWP, Son, Mitchell

    3. Limbo
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      I'm going Pulisic now he's got green light. Class act.

      1. Limbo
        • 16 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        (+ KWP & Mitchell)

      2. Konstaapeli
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        You think he'll start and play 60+ mins?

        1. Limbo
          • 16 Years
          6 years, 14 days ago

          Yes for starts. 90? Who knows. Hes a great player - and alongside Werner / Havertz he'll do great.

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 14 days ago

            Really want him instead Kai but worry about his fitness.

    4. Ser Davos
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Cheers all

    5. JamTart
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Vinagre(at least for early GWs)
      Alli
      Mitchell

    6. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      KWP
      Son
      Mitchell

    7. BENOIT
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      This is very surprising. Vinaigrette all day for me... potential to be one for the best value players around

    8. HashAttack
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      I'm going with both Ferguson and Mitchell

  2. subhojit123
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Which one from -

    1. CWilson, Pereira(west brom)
    2. DCL, Saint Maxim

    1. fakelund
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Wilson and ASM

      1. subhojit123
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        Thanks buddy

  3. Limbo
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Crikey - pages going too fast for me. See you on super knee-jerk Saturday.

    Good luck all 🙂

    1. teneighty
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Enjoy the madness! Good luck!

  4. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Saint Max or Ben Davies?

  5. Marmalade Forest
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Seen the new “GW1 team news” section on the FPL App?

    Lovely, but could do with adding manager conferences

  6. teneighty
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Vinagre and Soucek back in the team. Captaincy locked on Auba. I think I'm done with my tinkering.

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Vinagre likely to stay?

      1. teneighty
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        Not sure but seems a fairly certain starter for the first couple of gameweeks at least.

  7. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Vinagre or James Justin? Why?

    1. Cheeto__Bandito
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      both

    2. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      have both, vinagre

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Justin for now

    4. Ser Davos
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Wolves in better shape

      Pereira and Castagne the long term FBs

      Wolves' may still be Vinagre

  8. Ruudy Van
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Hi all- checked my team for the first time in a couple of weeks;

    Armstrong- is he now injured?? Best replacement?

    Vinagre- we still confident he is going to start?

  9. Reeker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Best 4.5 defender to rotate with Vinagre if I were to have him. Obviously still unsure

    1. Think
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      J lewis

  10. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Bottomed. Would appreciate your thoughts on what I think is my final 50/50, which has changed post-Wolves presser today...

    I was keen on Ayling for GW2/3 etc but Vinagre coming back into the equation has me considering going back to him.

    Who would you prefer here?

    A) Ayling (start Mitchell GW1)
    B) Vinagre (start Vinagre GW1)

    McCarthy
    TAA / Egan / Justin / xxx
    Salah / Auba / ASM
    Werner / Mitro / Adams

    Steer / Mitchell / Bruno* / Reed

    Thanks!

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      A mate. Long term good pick

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        Thanks, mate. That's what I'm on at the moment.

        Wolves defensively always an option GW3 onwards when, if all goes to plan (optimistic!), I'll have saved 0.5 from Auba to KdB.

  11. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Final mini conundrum;

    A. Justin >> Saiss
    B. Bissouma >> Soucek
    C. Save 0.5. Possible move for Martial

    1. Pulisic
    2. Havertz

    McCarthy
    TAA, Egan, Davies, Justin
    Salah(C), Auba, XXX, ASM
    Werner, Ings
    (Nyland, Bissouma, Ferguson, Davis)

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Tricky one. Maybe C as I'm not totally sold on Wolves' first two fixtures, and not fond of Soucek fixtures after GW1. And it's nice to have a clear route to Utd.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        Thanks mate. Or I go Vinagre over Justin. Then just the Puli or Havertz call

        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 14 days ago

          Oh yeah, sorry. As a fellow Werner owner, I've been tempted by Havertz too but wonder if Puli, now he's fit, has a better chance of starting? Both exciting picks, would maybe just side with Puli.

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      C, 1

  12. Surfreak
    • 17 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Anyone starting with Foden on the bench or planning to bring him in later?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Planning to bring later

    2. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Wait. Depends what B. Silva's injury is like?

  13. Weeb Kakashi
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Doherty to start? Want to go with him. Just feeling Aurier starts.

  14. Strchld
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    So Vinagre is nailed again?

  15. Thomas Shelby from Birmingh…
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Which Chelsea defenders are nailed to start this GW and can be held for a 4GW period

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Azpi the only one I'd say

      1. Thomas Shelby from Birmingh…
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        No Azpi just returning from injury, so an FPL risk for 1st GW

        1. Mayor of Flair
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 14 days ago

          Oh right, none of them certain in that case.

    2. socho
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Alonso

      1. Thomas Shelby from Birmingh…
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 14 days ago

        Chilwell wont recover for a month?

  16. Corona is not good 4 U
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Is this team g2g?

    Ryan, Nyland
    Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Walker-Peters, Vinagre, Ayling
    Aubameyang, Salah, Son, Saint-Maximin, Bissouma
    Werner, Wilson, Mitrovic

    Thank you!

  17. gunnerboy
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Son or Pulisic?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Puli

  18. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Aurier a threat to Doherty?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Ya

    2. Saïss Doesn't Mat…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Nope. Doherty a threat to Aurier

  19. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Pogba's absent tomorrow and Fred and Matic haven't been training this week, so Van de Beek and McTominay might be the starting two behind Fernandes at Villa. Impact of the pandemic and relentless schedule means fringe players will suddenly get back into the fold

    https://twitter.com/samuelluckhurst/status/1304421799967547392?s=20

  20. Mayor of Flair
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Bellerin nailed ya?

    1. gunnerboy
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      No, Cedric and AMN...

    2. Thomas Shelby from Birmingh…
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      David Luiz not playing so no CS

  21. socho
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Chances for Alonso to play tomorrow?

    1. La Roja
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Should start

  22. JURGENAUT
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Any news on Pulisic & Havertz?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Both in contention, that's about it.

  23. Thinkering like a Boss
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Just for 3 GW

    1) Justin
    2) Vinagre
    3) Saliba

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      2

  24. Live Lad
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Which two strikers for the first two GWs?
    (1) Vardy
    (2) Kane
    (3) Werner
    Thanks. I can switch after two games but who do you think will have a flying start?

    1. Scout
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Vardy and werner

  25. Bubbles1985
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Saliba likely to start for Arsenal in the first 2?

  26. Slim25
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    How many people are thinking about Bench Boost?
    Would this team be a viable option

    Ramsdale (McCarthy)
    Tierney, Gomez, Davies (Saiss/Vinagre, KWP)
    Auba, Haverts, Alli, Barnes (ASM)
    Werner, Ings, Mitro

  27. King Kohli
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Is this defence good enough to play 4 ATB each week?

    TAA Dier Coady KWP Targett

  28. SILENTWAR
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Anyone considering Man Utd defenders? Is Shaw nailed?

  29. Over Midwicket
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Son or Kai?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 14 days ago

      Kai

  30. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 14 days ago

    Which 6.0 forward?

    A) Mitrovic
    B) Adams