Pro Pundits - Fábio
2 October 2020 3398 comments
FBorges FBorges
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Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. n14mul
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Serious noise about mane and covid.....suppose its only a matter of time before most clubs have cases

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Salah Hatty incoming

    2. Niho992
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Yup. That's why we should keep WC as long enough as we can.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Then you play the WC and some of the players you brought in get Covid! It’s going to be a random season

      2. SouthCoastSaint
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        This makes 0 sense

    3. Ericthegoat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      This season you need 12 decent outfield playing options

  2. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Back 5 is nice if playing for a cosy 5K finish but you will never win FPL.

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      chances of winning FPL are always so low.

      As long as I win my mini leagues its happy days.

      1. Niho992
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        This

  3. Whazza
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Is it illegal to discuss covid rumours on here xD What has this place turned into..

  4. Party time
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Carlos Vinicius at Spurs. Surely Kane gets benched now

    1. _Ninja_
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Hahahaha

      1. Big Hippo
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        LOL

  5. Jo72
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    On WC,

    McCarthy - Nyland
    Mictchel - Masuaku - Ake - Justin - Dallas
    Mane - Fernandes - Foden - Rodriguez - Stephens
    Kane - Bamford - Vardy

    1. Frucke
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      itb?

  6. Brosstan
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Please help guys. I'm wondering if I should play Brewster or not. He's a great pick to get a leg up on my rivals. If I play him I could bench Jimi and get that sweet sweet bench haul 🙂

    1. Flair
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Go for it, imagine your rival laughing at your score before realizing Jimmy's 15 pointer beats him in H2H

    2. Cheeto__Bandito
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      he'll probably start on bench first game tho?

    3. Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I think he's ineligible to play this weekend.

    4. OLLY G
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I read he hasn't made it in time for the match.

    5. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      For me likely be a sub this week. Can’t see him going straight In but then again they are really in need of a goalscorer

    6. Brosstan
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Thats my thinking mate 🙂 but sucks if there's a 0.01% chance Brewster gets a cameo!

    7. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      He was not signed in time to be eligible to play this weekend

    8. bOttOmEdpOstrEpliEr.
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Do you think je is better than Neymar?

      1. Brosstan
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Absolutely!

  7. MSTRKRFTSMN
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Keep an eye on your poor picks. Over 100 players look like they’ll have price drops tonight

    1. nelluckram
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I will eat my hat.

  8. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Quick Questions...
    Play
    A Podence or
    B Lamptey

    1 Werner to Ings
    2 Roll the FT

    1. Runaway
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A2

    2. Sanchit
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      B1

    3. JohnBlack
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A2

    4. paatmaan
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A and 2

  9. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Foden (lee, whu, ars) or Robertson (avl, eve, shu) short term?

    1. Frucke
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I have r

  10. Oooo Matron
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Somebody convince me to - 4 Werner to Jiminez or Ings!

    1. Milk, 1 Šuker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Ings buddy, although I also have Jimi 🙂

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Ings

    3. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Since it’s a hit, a slightly longer term option is preferred by me, so Jimenez

    4. Frucke
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Never! Hang in there buddy

    5. Disco Volante
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Don’t do it. Are you that confident that that Werner will blank and Jimi or Ings will score twice?

  11. OLLY G
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    On WC. Which 4m bench fodder should l pick please:

    (A) Dunne of Burnley
    (B) Buur of Wolves
    (C) Amartey of Leicester
    (D) Johnson of West Ham

    Thanks.

    1. kempc23
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      None of the above, Ferguson from Palace. He will actually get game time (when he has recovered from injury)

  12. Niho992
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Just saw pics from Liverpool training and Trent is on them

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Calm down Bielsa.

      1. Niho992
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Hahah good one

        1. F4L
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 12 days ago

          😉 Mane rumours seem more substantial, can't really imagine half the Pool squad actually has tested positive.

          1. Niho992
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 12 days ago

            They will be tested before trip to Birmingham anyway.

    2. GENERATION X
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Did well to do those doggies in a hazmat suit

    3. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Taa on there but no mane!

      1. Niho992
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        True

    4. HollywoodXI
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I hope they’re all ok. Health over FPL.

      1. Niho992
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Amen

  13. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    So first Thiago and now Mane. Covid is obviously going round the Liverpool team so I would be worried about owning their players. Currently I only have VVD.

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      It takes no prisoners. I was told I was positive today. Not been out except work for 6 months.

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Sorry to hear this. How are you feeling currently?

      2. Straitpizza187
        • 15 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Hope you get well soon

      3. Forever In Our Shadow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Thanks guys. I feel ok now. Bit rough for a couple of days. Just thought it was a cold though.

    2. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Glad there's two V s

  14. Deulofail
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Who to bench people?

    A) Gabriel (SHU)
    B) Saiss (FUL)
    C) Justin (WHU)
    D) Lamptey (eve)

    First thought was Lamptey, but he's a "breath of fresh air" with a lot of attacking potential. Don't want to be blinded by the price and fixture.

    Maybe Gabriel in case he doesn't see 60 minutes? But I do like his unknown factor, as I can see him getting bonus or another goal, as much as getting nothing.

    Saiss might be the least exciting, but I don't think I can bench him against Fulham.

    So, Justin? Against the mighty West Ham? I can see a 2-pointer, but Leicester always have the potential to score big.

    1. Frucke
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A

    2. Pipermaru
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Still on paper Lamptey's fixture is the worst one, I would bench him.

    3. ktk_interista
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      C. Westham are in good form

    4. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Thanks guys, I'll bench Saiss then!

  15. Champions League Varane
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Would you get rid of Kane for Ings and Podence to Jrod/7.6 mid ? For a -4?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Just do Kane to Ings

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Ya think?

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 12 days ago

          Imo JRod is the Everton’s assisting assister.

    2. Pipermaru
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I'm a little bit torn as I have Ings(C) but have Kane as well 🙂

  16. Frucke
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Any news about podence?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Trained apparently.

      1. Frucke
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Ty!

  17. nelluckram
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    RP:

    G2G here?

    McCarthy
    TAA, Saiss, Justin
    KDB (c), Rash, Havertz, ASM
    Jimi, Ings, DCL

    Steer, Bissouma, Mitchell, Johnson

    0FT 2.5 ITB

    I don't like having ASM in there and so much on the bench but I may WC next GW so not much point in taking the hit...?

    1. Frucke
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Gtg.

  18. Jamesy0909
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Werner + Son > Vardy + Mahrez for a -4? TIA

  19. TheDragon
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Which for this week

    A) Mahrez
    B) Foden
    C) Barnes

    1. Frucke
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I got mahrez

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A or B, but slightly B

  20. Garth Marenghi
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Who to bench?
    A) Podence vs Fulham
    B) Wilson vs Burnley

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A

  21. Karan_G14
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Salah(c) anyone?

    We know how good he is when Mane is not playing.

    1. In a Rush
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Already had it on him and all set with kdb or Jimenez vice not sure yet.

    2. Niho992
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Here. Changed C from KdB to him because of Mane news

  22. Dele
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Brewster now a Sheffield player on FPL!

    1. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      I wonder how many FPL teams now have 4 Sheffield Untied players

  23. Misunderstood Genius
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Son latest?

    1. Whazza
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Big doubt for United game

  24. In a Rush
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    The uncertainty around vinagre is a bit frustrating, is it worth taking him out for a -4 ?
    My defenders are
    Taa kwp vinagre ayling Mitchell
    3.4 Itb

    1. Shark Team
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Man Vinagre is not gonna play. Im from Greece and media here suggest that he is expected the next couple of days to land in Athens.

      1. Whazza
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        He could play one more game

      2. In a Rush
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 12 days ago

        Really, I didn’t know he was getting a transfer!

        1. Whazza
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 12 days ago

          Olympiacos mate looks done

        2. Shark Team
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 12 days ago

          Still don't go for the hit. I can't see any defender to score surely 4 pts more than those who will be in your bench to replace Vinagre

          1. In a Rush
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 12 days ago

            Cheers guys I’ve been on top of most transfers but not vinagre I was more concerned Marçal would be back and vinagre benched.

  25. JURGENAUT
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Thoughts on this WC team?

    Martinez
    TAA - Robbo - Justin - Lamptey
    Salah (c) - KDB - Barnes
    Jimenez - Ings - DCL

    Bench: Steer - Mitchell - Burke - Anguissa

    0.2 ITB.

    Thanks

    1. Gunners in Haaland
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Great!

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Looks decent. Similar to mine but I sacrificed Ings to get stronger mids but your team looks good

  26. Flair
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Was all set on Salah -> Sterling, this presents irritating complications. I wonder how much Jota will ball hog on Sunday

  27. FPL Marc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Zaha, Pereira or Trossard?

    (already got Barnes on my WC)

    1. Flair
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Zaha if the extra 1M doesn't matter too much, otherwise Trossard

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Probably a

  28. LewanGOALski
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    play:
    A) CTaylor (new)
    or
    B) Soucek (lei)
    ..?

    1. DARE TO BISCAN
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      A

    2. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Soucek might get 3 assists this season and 7 goals
      Taylor might get 3 assists this season and 10+ CSs
      Taylor has the better fixture

      Taylor

  29. tiger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Podence...will he start?

  30. DARE TO BISCAN
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 12 days ago

    Switch ASM (for -4) to

    a) Barnes (no other Lei)
    b) Foden (no other City)
    c) Neto (have Jimi)
    d) another suggestion (2.4 ITB )
    e) save the -4 play Bissouma & hope Son plays (ASM sub)

    1. Whazza
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 12 days ago

      Def not C! I went A but have City cover so maybe B