Form v fixtures: Which is more important in FPL?

Our new FPL Masterclass series unites three of the best Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers around: two-time India champion Lateriser, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar and five-time top 1,000 finisher Tom Freeman.

Between them, they have 20 overall ranks in the top 10,000, nine of which were within the top 1k.

They’ll be chipping in with regular Fantasy advice ahead of the start of 2021/22, with opinion on everything from tips for newcomers to captaincy picks.

Our trio of top managers will be writing for Fantasy Football Scout every week throughout the new season – and only subscribers will be able to read all of their articles in full.

• Gameweek 1 essentials
• How many proven players – and how many ‘gambles’ – shall I pick in my FPL squad?
• How important is a strong bench early in the season?
• How important is team value and when are early transfers advisable?
• Tips for a top 10k finish

You can read all of their previous FPL Masterclass articles via the links above but this time we’ll be asking our panel: what do you focus more on – form or fixtures?

ZOPHAR SAID…

I am a ‘fixtures over form’ guy and I believe that a run of favourable matches often ‘creates’ form.

When a team/player encounters favourable opposition, they are afforded more opportunities to deliver points, which in turn leads to increased confidence and an upturn in form. This makes sense, as most sides often place greater emphasis on winning a fixture against, say, a Norwich City than they do a Manchester City. You would see more attacking set-ups from managers and players would also feel mentally that they are more likely to find the back of the net. 

Very often, teams from the bottom half of the table rely solely on the ‘easy’ fixtures for their Premier League survival so we in turn as FPL managers need to target these games, too. I usually look for a block of five to six fixtures when I make my transfers. 

However, I don’t think fixtures are as important for the premium assets, as they can deliver points usually against any opposition. My strategy with the premiums is usually to stick and forget, and ride out the tougher periods. 

There are some instances, though, where form simply cannot be ignored. I did a piece for Scout last year where I tried to define ‘form’ and the likes of Kelechi Iheanacho (£7.5m) and Jesse Lingard (£7.0m) exemplified this in the tail-end of the campaign. Previously bit-part players, they had been afforded the chance to shine and circumstances led to them having an ideal state of mind to deliver a high level of performance which, though unsustainable over a long period, was ideal for FPL managers to capitalise on in the short term.

LATERISER SAID…

I am definitely a fixtures guy. I’ve always thought that fixtures breed form as premium assets from strong teams will more often than not tend to do well versus weaker opposition.

I’ve done many articles highlighting the same where the performance of premium assets versus strong, middling and obliging defenses is starkly different. You can see the same in the data here.

While selecting my team, I like getting premium assets even if they have a good fixture run for three to four Gameweeks, whereas my approach is a lot more long-term when it comes to mid-priced attackers and defenders. I generally see these mid-priced assets and defenders as long-term ‘value’-focused glue guys and I like to spend my transfers on attackers with a high upside.

Again, this is very subjective and depends on the context of the season (you can’t spend transfers on premium attackers if they are continuously performing at a very high level) and you’ll need to take a step back and assess.

Form, for me, is a little less predictable than fixtures but there is a case for trusting a player looking slightly more confident or avoiding a player who appears the opposite. On this note, one thing to look out for is whether there is a ‘role change’ for a player in a particular team. You need to keep an eye out for these tactical shifts and try jumping onto these players earlier than the crowd.

TOM SAID…

I’m all about the fixtures, especially for my budget and mid-price picks, and often find that form is driven by it.

Bad defences can suddenly become good defences if the fixtures fall kindly, which is exactly what happened with West Bromwich Albion for a period last season. The Baggies were terrible initially under Sam Allardyce, which coincided with a brutal schedule that included games against Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United, Leeds United and Arsenal. However, they improved shortly afterwards once the fixtures eased, keeping a respectable four clean sheets in seven matches. That’s something I benefitted from with Sam Johnstone and Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£5.5m) in my team but I was quick to sell once the fixtures stiffened again.

Despite that, sometimes you need to ride the wave with players like Jesse Lingard. The form isn’t necessarily sustainable and returns are bound to dry up eventually, but missing out on these types of players isn’t a lot of fun, and at the very least, you should make a few pounds from it.

With the premiums, I don’t mind playing them in trickier one-off fixtures, especially if they are on penalty-taking or set-piece duties. For example, Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) returned against Man City, Man Utd, Leicester City, Spurs and Arsenal last season, so there was never a reason to sell.