Scout Notes

Is Callum Wilson the best FPL forward under £8.0m?

Our review of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 9 action continues with Crystal Palace v Newcastle United, a match in which two differential mid-price forwards found the net for the second Gameweek running.

For a briefer summary of Saturday’s Premier League action, click here, while you can read up on Arsenal v Aston Villa, Brentford v Leicester City, Leeds United v Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur via the links below.

CRYSTAL PALACE 1-1 NEWCASTLE UNITED

  • Goals: Christian Benteke (£6.3m) | Callum Wilson (£7.3m)
  • Assists: Tyrick Mitchell (£4.5m) | Emil Krafth (£4.3m)
  • Bonus: James McArthur (£4.5m) x3, Mitchell x2, Krafth x1

DIFFERENTIAL WILSON CONTINUES TO GO UNDER THE RADAR

Is Callum Wilson the best FPL forward under £8.0m? 2

From Sam Greenwood (£4.5m) to Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.6m), a grand total of 30 FPL forwards have a higher ownership figure than Callum Wilson (£7.3m).

Even after back-to-back goals, the Newcastle United striker has been bought by fewer than 20 other players in his Fantasy position in the run-up to Gameweek 10.

The Magpies’ ropey form, Wilson’s injury record and an upcoming clash with Chelsea are understandable reasons why he might be still overlooked.

But there’s a strong argument to suggest that the former Bournemouth man is, when fit, the best option among the current crop of sub-£8.0m forwards.

None of them have scored more league goals than Wilson (four) this season, for example, despite the Newcastle number nine missing four of his side’s fixtures.

As a consequence, his points-per-match average is the best among players in this price rung:

And last season, only the premium pair of Harry Kane (£12.1m) and Jamie Vardy (£10.8m) could better his rate of points among Fantasy forwards:

Having found the side netting from close range earlier in the match, Wilson’s spectacular overhead kick against Crystal Palace on Saturday rescued a point for a Newcastle side who created very little for their talisman.

Interim boss Graeme Jones paired Wilson with Allan Saint-Maximin (£6.8m) in a 3-5-2, with the Frenchman, for once, fairly unimpressive en route to a third straight blank.

I’m delighted for him: it’s his talent, that’s what he’s got. His quality, you can’t give that to people. The most impressive thing with Callum is that he usually does it on a match day. Training can be hit and miss at times, but when it matters, he’s got that mentality to come up grab the moment.” – Graeme Jones

Making the most of what few chances fell his way was what Wilson did best in his debut season in the north-east, with his goal conversion rate of 24.5% not too far away from his corresponding (and, for most strikers, unsustainable) figure of 30.8% in 2021/22.

As a general rule of thumb, anything around 20% or above is quite clinical – something Wilson has achieved in five of his last seven seasons, if we stretch to include 2016/17:

SeasonShot-to-goal conversion rate
2021/2230.8%
2020/2124.5%
2019/2014.5%
2018/1921.5%
2017/1815.1%
2016/1719.4%
2015/1629.4%

For those FPL managers who prioritise fixture difficulty, Newcastle move to third on our Season Ticker from Gameweeks 11-16, with enticing home matches against Burnley, Norwich and, to a lesser extent, an impressive Brentford side punctuated by some tougher away trips.

BENTEKE’S BIG CHANCES

Is Callum Wilson the best FPL forward under £8.0m?

The visit of a defence in the bottom two for goals conceded and clean sheets didn’t result in the longed-for points extravaganza for the likes of Conor Gallagher (£5.7m) and Odsonne Edouard (£6.5m), with the latter again stationed on the left to slightly dent his goal threat.

Gallagher’s close-range goal attempts have dried up a tad of late, while the loss of most set plays to Luka Milivojevic (£5.4m) is also a blow. As a result, his expected goal involvement (xGI) figure has tumbled from 3.22 in Gameweeks 1-4 to 0.64 from Gameweek 5 onwards:

Above: Conor Gallagher’s expected goals shotmap from Gameweeks 1-4 (left) and Gameweeks 5-9 (right)

The Chelsea loanee is, at the very least, still performing well overall and prominent in the build-up to Palace’s attacks (he is among the top 15 midfielders for final-third touches over the last five Gameweeks), with some juicy fixtures to come between now and the turn of 2022.

With Wilfried Zaha (£6.7m) not fit enough to start after illness, it was Christian Benteke (£6.3m) who was front and centre of Palace’s forward play in Gameweek 9.

The Belgian scored, had a late winner disallowed, hit the woodwork twice and missed a glaring one-on-one opportunity in an up-and-down display, with his total of seven shots in the box the best among FPL forwards at the weekend.

Patrick Vieira’s frontline looks difficult to tap into at present, with Zaha presumably to come back into the side when up to full speed, Edouard a ‘reverse out of position’ prospect and Michael Olise (£5.4m) turning in an encouraging display on the right flank on his first league start of 2021/22.

“I think [Zaha] was maybe too early to start the game. Obviously, as a team and a football club, it’s important to have Wilfried on the field, but he wasn’t ready to start the game.

“I was really pleased and really happy with the way that [Benteke] played today and the way that he played against Arsenal. He didn’t go with the international so that allowed him to stay with us and work well physically. He is in a really good period – his confidence is higher, he is working hard for the team, he is creating chances. Today he should score more than one goal.

“At times, [Olise] was isolated, when he got the ball at his feet he was against two or three players so it was difficult for him to find the space and to express his talent. But for his first start, I was really pleased with his work ethic. He delivered really good crosses for Christian and I was happy for him to start the game. He did what was expected and he showed his talent but there is still more to come from him.

“I was really pleased with Edouard on the left, he is somebody who won’t stay on the line he will come and play between the lines and play really close to Christian. Today he did it really well. Christian and he combine really well together and this is one of the options we have where those two players can play together.

“There are players who are capable of playing in the position as well but this is one of the tools that I can use. When we are facing teams that play with a really low block, having those players, especially Christian, who can play between the lines, is something good with how we want to play the game.” – Patrick Vieira on his attacking options

Crystal Palace XI: Guaita, Mitchell, Andersen, Guéhi, Ward, Milivojevic (Schlupp 73), McArthur, Gallagher (Mateta 86), Olise (Zaha 66), Benteke, Edouard.

Newcastle United XI: Darlow, Clark, Lascelles, Ritchie, Hayden, Krafth, Manquillo, Fraser (Almirón 66), Longstaff (Willock 66), Saint-Maximin (Joelinton 81), Wilson.

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM GAMEWEEK 9

Is Callum Wilson the best FPL forward under £8.0m? 10


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165 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bobby Digital
    • 5 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Toney or Wilson?

    1. Chris_White
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Wilson

    2. tangtastic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Wilson

    3. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Toney

    4. acidicleo
      • 6 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      toney

    5. Bobby Digital
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Tiebreaker?

      1. Flair
        • 2 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        Toney

  2. Ohh1454
    • 4 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Is it time to ship Gallagher and was a Mounts hat trick a flash in the pan or could he be a good pick ?

    1. tangtastic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Looking at the stats, it'd suggest Mount's hat trick was a flash in the pan - didnt register highly for overall assist or goal attemps, and XG/XA was low on both counts.

      That said, I have brought him in as next two look great and I think there's he's worth a punt. Probably going purely on recency bias and the lack of obvious alternative goal scorer in Chelsea's team without Lukaku, who may miss games up until IB.

      1. Podorsky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        Is Lukaku out till International Break confirmed?

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Get Mount.

    3. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Can't access members area stats at the moment, but Im sure Mount was 4th/5th for midfielders XGI (prob per 90) even before Norwich. I wouldn't expect further hattricks, but I also don't think the "steady eddie" tag really fits anymore either. I just brought him back in

    4. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Yes and no.

  3. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    These are my main wc moves. Should I pull the trigger

    Vardy to toney
    Benrahma to Foden
    Raphina to son
    White to chilwell
    Ayling to livra

    Along with 4.5 fodder and keeper switches

    Will be making a total of 8 subs

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Those look like good moves, yes.

    2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 10 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      all looking good except for foden

  4. Gudjohnsen
    • 5 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Likelihood of starting at the weekend?

    A. Vardy
    B. Mbuemo
    C. Raphinha

    1. ANGRY PERSON
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 27 days ago

      75%
      75%
      75%

    2. tangtastic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Nobody knows, so why guess?

      1. tangtastic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        equally likely atm

  5. Chris_White
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    This team too risky in terms of minutes? On WC

    Raya
    TAA Cancelo Chilwell James
    Salah Son Foden
    Antonio Jesus Toney

    Foster ESR Livra Brownhill

    1. ANGRY PERSON
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Yep

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Not sure Jesus is worth it, would probably swap him out for someone more nailed. Think the rest is fine.

  6. Flynny
    • 7 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Best striker option.

    A....toney (already got mbuemo)
    B....hwang

    Thanks

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Hwang

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Toney easy. Check out how many shots Hwang has taken all season.

    3. acidicleo
      • 6 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      if its for first bench spot with occasional starts Hwang / Broja and save cash...
      if u need more regularly toney..

      1. Flynny
        • 7 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        Cheers

  7. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    I'm one of the few to have gone for Wilson this week it seems.

  8. I Member
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Foden or Mount?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Mount likely to get more mins Id say. However Foden biggest ceiling.

    2. drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Foden more hauls in him but will be rotated here and there. Mount will tick along nicely I predict. I like both as options but have gone with foden as its easier to downgrade then upgrade money wise

    3. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Short term, probably Mount. With the good CHE fixtures and if Luk and Werner out for a couple more games Mount likely to play and be involved. Long term probably Foden. That City attack is top drawer and even with rotation Foden will pick up plenty of returns.

    4. Flair
      • 2 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Foden

  9. Gudjohnsen
    • 5 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Best forward for Armstrong?

    A. Wilson
    B. Toney
    C. Hwang
    D. Broja

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      B

      1. Flynny
        • 7 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        A if you can get there. Proven quality

        Otherwise toney or hwang

    2. acidicleo
      • 6 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      B

  10. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Any pressers today ahead of the EFL cup?

    1. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Bielsa, I believe. Not sure what time. Hoping for Raphinha update

  11. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 3 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    A bad gameweek this one, do you reckon i can make it till GW12 for a wildcard- 2.4 itb 1 ft
    Foster
    Rudiger Cancelo Azpi
    Saka Salah (c) Raph Sarr
    Antonio CR7 Toney

    Sanchez White Brownhill Williams

  12. Bruin
    • 8 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Website down AGAIN?

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      Trying to reply on this site refreshes page to post comment entry.

      1. Holmes
        • 8 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        You can still use Post Comment after clicking on Reply, it will work

        Like this...

  13. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    This website down again, says "Not another one" in a Bristol accent.

  14. Forza Papac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    My H2H rival had an amusing collection of scores this GW. Salah accounted for 48 of 63 points. Three players on negative scores. Pogba came off the bench to block Dennis. Brought KDB in as part of a hit.

    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/5129938/event/9

  15. Forza Papac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    My H2H rival had an amusing collection of scores this GW. Salah accounted for 48 of 63 points. Three players on negative scores. Pogba came off the bench to block Dennis. Brought KDB in as part of a hit.

    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/5129938/event/9

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 27 days ago

      The guy has Rice and Dallas 😛

      1. Forza Papac
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        9 months, 27 days ago

        He has Wan Bissaka because he likes that nobody can past him. Has Rice because he's "solid"

  16. drughi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Looks like a possible triple rise for foden this week

  17. Chris_White
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 months, 27 days ago

    Pick one

    Jimenez
    Wilson
    Mount
    Jota