We hear from one of the most successful Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers in the world ahead of Gameweek 13: the Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame number seven, Jon Ballantyne.
Jon has remarkably finished inside the top 1,000 in each of his last three seasons, having posted a further three top 20k overall ranks across his five other campaigns playing FPL.
After a rather disheartening start to Gameweek 15 (receiving two points from my triple Chelsea defence), I was incredibly happy to finish on 53 points and get a green arrow to rank 49,612.
Joshua King (£5.8m) and Reece James (£6.2m) joined my team for two free transfers, enabling a permanent triple Chelsea defence, a move which appears particularly volatile. From an ‘effective ownership’ perspective, I’m far less exposed due to the popularity of a Blues defensive double-up. Given the exceptional value on offer, I’m content with taking this a step further, with a view to playing all five of my defenders until Gameweek 20. While I fully expect wild swings in the short term, I view this as six-week play (18 starts) and thus I’m completely content with the week-by-week variance.
Looking ahead to Gameweek 16, we’re faced with the all-too-familiar Covid disruption that last season was riddled with. It appears that a number of popular picks have been caught in the crossfire, most notably regarding the Brighton v Tottenham Hotspur game which has just been cancelled at the time of writing this. As we enter the busy Christmas schedule, already notorious for player rotation, I believe there’s a stronger case than ever to spread funds towards the bench and consider squad depth when making transfers, as we should anticipate further short-term disruption.
Entering into Gameweek 16, I find myself in the highly fortunate position of being able to field a relatively strong 11-man team. However, with rumours of a Diogo Jota (£8.0m) injury and both Ivan Toney (£6.7m) and Son Heung-min (£10.4m) already confirmed out, I will be forced to make a transfer – and in my case, I’m fortunate enough for this just to be the one single move With no available funds in the bank, I will be looking at either a Son or Toney downgrade. With no striker at £6.6m or lower that grabs my attention for Gameweek 16 I can quickly rule out the Brentford striker and focus on a Son replacement, although it is worth noting I would have strongly considered Chris Wood (£6.7m) if I had that extra £0.1m! With a budget of £10.3m, you’d presume to be spoilt for choice in the midfield bracket, but I’m finding it challenging to land on a clear and obvious candidate, so I’d like to share my shortlist, one of whom is very likely to be selected.
The shortlist: Ilkay Gündogan (£7.3m), Bernardo Silva (£7.6m), Jack Grealish (£7.6m) and Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m)
Kicking things off with the City assets, all three present excellent value and significant upside – providing they win a starting slot in Pep Guardiola’s starting XI. Given the fragile state of our benches, opting for one of these three doesn’t necessarily provide the security that we’re after, but their enticing fixture run will likely reward managers who get it right. Silva looks most likely to start and play the full 90 minutes after being rested midweek, but I see a slightly higher degree of offensive upside in the other two options, both of whom come with a small level of doubt regarding their starting positions. I’m still keen to monitor Man City, especially given the injury status of Phil Foden (£8.1m), who remains a priority target for me. In the case of the City midfielders, I’m currently more inclined to remain patient for another week, and I will of course be absorbing all available information up to the time of the deadline to aid my decision.
Bowen was already being considered from Gameweek 18 when fixtures drastically improve for West Ham, and I’m quite content with moving a couple of weeks earlier on him than planned. He does represent good value, a safer long-term starting prospect than the Man City options and is predicted to do well in terms of offensive returns. At the time of writing this article, I’m still undecided as to which of these four will be selected and all of them remain in contention. My general philosophy towards FPL would push me towards a slightly higher risk asset if there’s a gain in ‘expected value’, so the final decision on this one could be quite interesting!
Lots of managers will have been incredibly unlucky this week, at no real fault of their own. It seems the biggest variance swing of the season before the Gameweek has even started! I’d carefully review the long-term implications of your transfers when putting out short-term fires, and if this is the case for you, hopefully, things can only get better from here…
Once again, I wish you all good luck.
