Chelsea’s victory against Luton Town has seen their Double Gameweek 28 confirmed.
After missing three of the last four Gameweeks due to cup competitions, the Blues are back on the Fantasy Premier Leauge (FPL) radar with a Double Gameweek against Burnley and Norwich. I will not be discussing any stats in this article as most of these numbers are from a while ago and the Blues have changed shape/personnel significantly since then in different competitions.
Let’s start first by looking at the Blues’ schedule.
FIXTURES AND SCHEDULE
Chelsea have just played for 120 minutes in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday 27 February and also 90 minutes on Wednesday 2 March in the FA Cup against Luton Town.
Their first game of the double is away at Turf Moor on Saturday 5 March, a very short turnaround of under 72 hours. The second game of the double is, however, on Thursday 10 March, a generous recovery time of four full days off. So theoretically, there is no need to really rest players for Norwich who played against Burnley as they would have all had the 96 hours of recovery that are considered ideal from a sports science perspective.
However, their Gameweek 29 fixture at home to Newcastle is on Sunday 13 March at 2pm, which is again a recovery period of fewer than 72 hours – far from ideal. There is also the matter of the second leg of the Champions League round-of-16 tie against Lille, which is away, and also has a limited recovery period. Chelsea do hold a 2-0 lead in that clash but with the second leg being away, the Blues will no doubt want to take a strong line-up to France.
Let’s have a look at the starting XIs that Chelsea have fielded in their last two matches.
V LIVERPOOL, EFL CUP FINAL
The Blues fielded what I believe is their strongest team from the players available (Reece James (£6.2m) wasn’t fit enough to start), with Kai Havertz (£7.8m) ahead of Romelu Lukaku (£11.5m) the only real ‘contentious’ selection. Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.6m) was subbed off with an injury that hasn’t seen him train yet and an update on his availability will likely be provided by Thomas Tuchel on Friday. James was subbed on just before the hour mark and played about 63 minutes. Mason Mount (£7.5m) was replaced by Lukaku in the 87th minute. Several of these players played 120 minutes and naturally many of them got a rest against Luton, as you can see in the line-up below.
V LUTON, FA CUP FIFTH ROUND
Mount and Antonio Rudiger (£6.1m) were the only players to retain their spots from the Carabao Cup final, with Tuchel ringing the changes. As mentioned earlier, Mount’s substitution before extra time meant that he still had some gas in the tank for Wednesday, which probably played a part in him starting again. The only player to have featured for the entire 210 minutes was Rudiger and despite the workload, I am very confident of him starting Burnley, with his physicality essential against the Clarets. I do expect him to start against Norwich and Newcastle, as well, so if I was to pick any Chelsea player to bring in based on minutes, it would definitely be him.
REECE JAMES
I am quite bullish on James’ prospects though. The right-back featured for only 14 minutes against Luton and Tuchel said before the game that the England international had played more minutes than intended on Sunday, so his workload needed to be managed. I think this potentially puts him in good stead to start against Burnley, especially if Azpilicueta is still out. There are of course Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.3m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.9m) as options at right wing-back but against a side like Burnley, I trust James more with his physical traits.
The generous rest period for the Norwich game is also encouraging and the prospects for him to start against the Canaries I believe would be unaffected by a start against Burnley, purely due to the long rest period. However, there would be worries about the Newcastle fixture in Gameweek 29, with the visit to Lille also in close proximity. In short, I think there is an excellent chance of James starting at least two of Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle, which is good enough for me, really.
Now, if you are using your Wildcard in Gameweek 28 and you are debating between James and Rudiger, I think it is an absolutely easy pick for James as long term he is definitely the better selection. However, if you are planning to Wildcard around Gameweek 31, Rudiger might be a better short-term option as he is the most likely of any Chelsea outfielder to start all of the next three league matches.
I’ve seen Thiago Silva (£5.6m) mooted as an option; there is a good chance of him starting both games in the double but then I would expect him to be benched in Gameweek 29 against Newcastle with the Lille tie next. If you can afford to bench him in Gameweek 29, I don’t mind him as a pick. However, as a long-term asset, he is definitely an ‘avoid’.
The attackers
It’s a bit of a minefield really in attack. Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) was having his best spell in a Chelsea jersey prior to his injury but at the time of writing, he is still not in training with the team. We await a further update from Tuchel but even if he is back fit, it is unlikely that his manager will thrust him in for all the league games and will probably manage his minutes.
Mount is the obvious target for most FPL managers but the number of minutes he has clocked over the last two games concerns me. If the Blues retain a 3-4-3 system, Havertz and Lukaku are kind of competing for the striker role (they can play together though) which really leaves just one of two spots open for Mount. Timo Werner (£8.6m) is also knocking about after his heroics against Luton and while Ziyech isn’t a factor at the moment, he very well could be in a few days.
If you were to ask me to pick one, it would be Mount over Havertz but I think with so many other teams having doubles, there are better options out there and I think Mount would miss one game from the next three.
Speaking of Havertz, there’s a fair bit of interest around the German, as well. A rest against Luton bodes well for a start against Burnley but from there it is too performance-dependent for my liking. Werner and Lukaku both got on the scoresheet and if Havertz has a poor outing at Turf Moor it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him benched against the Canaries. So while he is the form pick at the moment, I wouldn’t recommend him personally.
Up top, not much needs to be said really. Lukaku is a no-go area with his minutes under threat and his huge price tag. Werner is unlikely to get into the team straight away despite his showing last night, much to my fellow Pro Pundit Lateriser’s disappointment.
Summary
The way the scheduling has fallen, most of the players who were benched against Luton Town have a good chance of starting at least two of the next three league games for Chelsea. However, I think that there is no outfield player who is odds-on for starting all three upcoming league matches except Rudiger. Personally, I still have James in my team from the time he got injured and will be sticking with him as my only Chelsea player.
On another note, as most of you would have read, Roman Abramovich has recently put the club up for sale and I don’t know what sort of trickle-down impact this will have on the squad. While as a fan I would like to think that the players being professionals would carry on doing their job, I do fear whether this will have an effect on performances as well.
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