FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 32: GOALSCORER ODDS
Let’s start with the goalscorer odds, led by Mohamed Salah‘s (£12.8m) 52% chance of netting at any time. He’s expected to comfortably be this week’s most captained player now that Erling Haaland (£12.2m) is absent.
These odds assume that every player starts, which may not be the case for second-placed Darwin Nunez (£8.7m). After a very comfortable 6-1 win for Liverpool at Leeds United, you’d not expect Jurgen Klopp to shake things up when things worked so well, meaning we may see a front three of Salah, Cody Gakpo (£7.6m) and Diogo Jota (£8.7m).
This does present the latter two as strong options, particularly for those on a Free Hit, as Gakpo and Jota have chances of 34% and 39%. However, it’s worth remembering that Jota is classed as a forward and Gakpo is a midfielder, so the Dutchman gets an extra point per goal and a potential clean sheet point. It’s close but he’s my favourite of the two.
Meanwhile, Arsenal are at home to Southampton and everyone’s expecting a response from the Gunners after back-to-back draws that both saw 2-0 leads thrown away. Eddie Nketiah (£6.4m) won’t start this one, as it should be an unchanged front line of Gabriel Jesus (£8.2m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.9m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.6m).
They’ve been given odds of 40.5%, 36.5% and 36% respectively. With so little between them, all are good picks on a Free Hit, even an attacking triple-up.
For those on a Free Hit, Harry Kane (£11.7m) is a real dilemma. On the one hand, Tottenham Hotspur look far from their best and the 3-2 home defeat to Bournemouth was a massive shock, yet he’s still the second top-scoring player in FPL. Time and time again, he’s netted when Spurs weren’t at it.
The other dilemma is whether getting Kane therefore means swerving opponent Kieran Trippier (£6.2m)?
GAMEWEEK 32: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
In fact, Newcastle United have been given a 43% chance of a clean sheet against Kane and Spurs. Collecting only one of these during their last ten matches is a startling drop from that run of six in a row from earlier weeks.
I’d still have Trippier on a Free Hit though, as he’s top among all defenders for expected goal involvement (xGI), meaning that he’ll still have a chance of getting you something even if they do concede. If you want to maximise the potential upside of this week, try swerving both Trippier and Kane but you’ll need to accept the risk of it backfiring.
Arsenal lead with a 51.5% chance. In many ways, this is also a tough decision – the clean sheet odds suggest grabbing an Arsenal defender but, digging deeper, their backline has undeniably worsened since the Gameweek 17 restart, partly attributed to injuries to the likes of William Saliba (£5.0m).
Furthermore, Arsenal midfielders have been firing all season so you can easily make a case for skipping the defence and loading up on three of their attackers.
Liverpool are second with 49.5%. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) is going to be a staple of every Free Hit team, really it’s just about deciding that third Liverpool spot. It will probably be one of Gakpo, Jota or Andrew Robertson (£6.8m).
Crystal Palace sit in joint third with a 43% chance of shutting out Everton. Sam Johnstone (£4.4m) will start in goal and is a good option, with Marc Guehi (£4.4m) and Tyrick Mitchell (£4.4m) two to consider in defence.
If you need a super cheap goalkeeper, then Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) is expected to continue in goal and is 34% likely to clean sheet. However, rock bottom this week is Nottingham Forest and Southampton with odds of 7% and 8.5%.
GAMEWEEK 32: MOST TRANSFERS IN
The most transferred in player is Ollie Watkins (£7.7m), bought by 278,000 managers at the time of writing. With one blank in 12 outings, he’s another staple of all Free Hit drafts.
Eberechi Eze (£5.5m) is a fun punt to consider if you’ve got the chip active, following an assist and a trio of goals in his last three. You’d initially expect Everton to give Crystal Palace a hard time during their fight for survival but they’ve just lost 3-1 to a Fulham side without Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m).
Martinelli is the most-purchased Arsenal midfielder and he is my favourite of them. Over the last six games, the Brazilian has racked up an xGI of 3.63 compared to Martin Odegaard‘s (£6.7m) 3.13 and Saka’s 2.90. The latter number also includes the expected goals (xG) of Saka’s missed penalty last week.
Southampton have conceded 50% more chances down their right flank over the last six, which is on Martinelli’s side, so you’ll want him on a Free Hit and could also make the case for going Odegaard over Saka.
Alex Moreno (£4.5m) is a differential to consider, with just 2.3% ownership. Not only did he bag a clean sheet, assist and ten points last week but his last six outings have racked up an xGI of 1.77, where his 23 penalty area touches are only beaten by Ivan Perisic (£5.3m).
80,000 transfers in for Jack Grealish (£7.2m) this week? No words.
GAMEWEEK 32: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
Finally, the most sold players of this week. Marcus Rashford (£7.1m) is top with over 400,000 sales, which makes sense on a Free Hit but he’s already back in training and is part of the squad which has flown out to face Sevilla. You’ll want him for Double Gameweek 34, so keep hold if you can.
Transfer activity factors in the currently active chips, which is why Haaland is second with 156,000 sales, to make way for Free Hit options like Watkins and Jesus. With that in mind, 122,000 sales for Ivan Toney (£7.7m) is surprising as – although it’s a tough Aston Villa he’s up against – Toney is playing at home and has 22 goal contributions this season.
He’s on borrowed time for many of us, given he’s one yellow card away from a two-match suspension and is awaiting a potential ban from the FA but that situation can be reacted to accordingly. In my eyes, he’s absolutely fine this week.
It’s also a shock to see Kane and Saka amongst the most sold, meaning there are a few names here that could backfire, although the majority of sales are for those with a Blank Gameweek.
