The seventh and final Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline of December is hours away, so for the final time in 2023, we wheel out the Scout Picks selection.
This is a Free Hit in all but name, with the focus solely on the upcoming Gameweek.
As ever, we are limited by certain restrictions:
- An £83.0m budget for our starting XI
- An overall squad limit of £100.0m
- No more than three players per team
GOALKEEPER
Fulham are a curious side, having hit 16 goals in Gameweeks 13-16 and then failed to score a single one in their next three Premier League matches. The return of Raul Jimenez (£5.2m) will give them a boost but Arsenal will be glad to be meeting the Cottagers now, off the back of their morale-sapping defeats to Bournemouth and Burnley, rather than a fortnight ago.
The Gunners are the division’s meanest defence on the road, unbeaten for clean sheets (four), goals conceded (nine) and expected goals conceded (xGC, 7.62).
David Raya (£4.9m) gets the nod between the sticks as a result.
DEFENDERS
The two teams above Arsenal in Gameweek 20’s clean sheet odds table, Manchester City and Aston Villa, are represented in our backline.
Alex Moreno (£5.0m) stands to benefit from Lucas Digne’s (£4.7m) month-long absence. He scored on his only previous league start of this season against Brentford, racking up four shots and six penalty-box touches: those are some eye-catching figures for a defender.
Last season, he finished among the top 10 defenders for minutes per expected assist (xA).
Another left-back of sorts, Josko Gvardiol (£4.8m), is our risky punt of the week, given the slight uncertainty over which combination of defenders Pep Guardiola will opt for.
The consensus seems to be that City defenders carry a low ‘upside’, with attacking returns few and far between.
But Gvardiol was unleashed as a (less effective) Cancelo-esque attacking force in Gameweek 17 when City last encountered a low block at the Etihad, racking up three shots in the opposition area. With Sheffield United’s bus in town and expected to be parked somewhere in the vicinity of the 18-yard box, there’ll surely be more attacking support needed from outside the usual sources to create the necessary overloads.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) is a safer pair of hands. A home fixture against Newcastle United would have been viewed as a tricky test a few months back but the Magpies lie a dismal 19th in the away league table, their only success on the road coming at Sheffield United.
Alexander-Arnold’s creative numbers have gone through the roof in the last couple of months, with no other Premier League player – not even a midfielder or forward – carving out chances at a quicker rate from Gameweek 11 onwards.
MIDFIELDERS
Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) joins his team-mate in a Liverpool double-up. The prospect of the Egyptian going up against Dan Burn (£4.4m), if Eddie Howe sticks with the giant defender at left-back, is too good to turn down, based on the evidence of Newcastle United’s defeat to Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.
Howe will no doubt have his troops more fired up for this one than they were against Forest, with six days representing the longest gap without a match that the Magpies have had since the November international break.
But Salah on home soil is an irresistible force, with nine goals arriving in as many home appearances this season. He’s also top of all midfielders for most metrics you can think of, from shots to big chances.
Just behind Salah in the goalscoring charts, on 11 goals, is Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m). No-one has scored in more Premier League games than the West Ham United winger this season.
Bowen’s only double-digit haul of the campaign coincidentally came against Tuesday’s opponents, Brighton and Hove Albion, back in Gameweek 3. The Seagulls are the only Premier League side without a clean sheet to their name and they may be heading to the London Stadium with just one fit centre-half to select, so there was no hesitation in selecting Bowen this week.
Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) and Son Heung-min (£9.9m) were, as they often are, in the running for Scout Picks duty this week. But our meagre £100.0m budget only stretches so far, so Richarlison (£6.8m) worms his way into our weekly selection instead.
A home match against Bournemouth isn’t the favourable fixture it once was, with the Cherries the form side in the division.
But Spurs themselves are the only Premier League team to have scored in all of their matches this season, and fixture difficulty scarcely seems to matter: there were three goals scored against Manchester City, four against Newcastle, and two against both Liverpool and Arsenal.
Richarlison has racked up four goals in as many games since moving to the centre-forward role, while his blank against Brighton was an unlucky one, featuring two disallowed goals and a shot against the woodwork.
The looming returns of Messrs De Bruyne, Haaland and Doku will soon add to Phil Foden‘s (£7.6m) rotation risk but as a very short-term punt, he’s devoid of much competition against Sheffield United.
Foden was excellent in the number 10 position at Goodison Park in midweek, racking up a match-best seven shots, and while De Bruyne will soon be back to reclaim that spot, this is his chance to further remind Guardiola of his abilities in his preferred role.
Rate My Team, for those that pay heed to it, has Foden as the top projected scorer of Gameweek 20.
FORWARDS
Julian Alvarez (£6.9m) has had more big chances (four) in his three outings in Erling Haaland’s (£13.9m) centre-forward role than he registered in his first 15 appearances of the campaign.
Most of those initial run-outs came in a more withdrawn attacking midfield role, of course.
With the Norwegian again absent against Sheffield United, Alvarez can continue to emerge from Haaland’s shadow into more threatening positions – and he still has all those set plays to offer, as an alternative route to points.
The first name on the Scout Picks teamsheet from the Spurs v Bournemouth game wasn’t Son, Richarlison or Pedro Porro (£5.6m) but Dominic Solanke (£7.0m).
The Lilywhites’ shortage of centre-halves and woeful defensive display against Brighton on Thursday only cemented Solanke’s place in the picks. He and the Cherries also have an extra two days of recovery time compared to their Gameweek 20 opponents.
Solanke has seven goals in as many appearances going into Sunday’s game, eight in eight if you include the abandoned match against Luton Town.
Finally, someone whose underlying numbers have been a lot less impressive than those of Solanke of late: Ollie Watkins (£8.8m). The visit of Burnley at least offers Watkins the chance to get back on the goal trail, as the Villa striker racked up more big chances against the Clarets than any other team (three) in the first half of 2023/24.
THE SUBSTITUTES
- Dean Henderson (£4.4m): Henderson is this week up against Brentford, who look a pale shadow of themselves without Messrs Mbeumo and Toney. The Bees have scored just two goals in three-and-a-half matches since Mbeumo limped off in Gameweek 15.
- Malo Gusto (£4.1m): Luton are a tough nut to crack at Kenilworth Road but Gusto racked up a 14-point haul in the reverse fixture, while the Hatters are rock-bottom for xG in their last six matches despite some much-improved displays.
- Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.1m): It’s four clean sheets in six matches for Everton, who take on a Wolves side potentially without the influential Mario Lemina and enduring the second-tightest Gameweek 18-20 turnaround period.
- Michael Olise (£5.8m): The Palace winger ranks inside the top six midfielders for both shots in the box and chances created since his recovery from injury and return to the Crystal Palace line-up in Gameweek 13. Opponents Brentford are short of full-backs and conceded four goals to Wolves in midweek.
THE CAPTAIN
We choose the Scout Picks captain using a vote between our Scout Squad panel.
Phil Foden was handed the armband this week, with Mohamed Salah the vice-captain.
COMMUNITY CHAMPION
Each week, a member of the Fantasy Football Scout community takes on the Scout Picks.
The community member who beats our team by the largest margin will win a £100 Amazon voucher and a place in our Moderators and Contributors League for the following season.
The-Red-1’s 64-30 victory in Gameweek 16 gave the community the biggest win (34 points difference) of 2023/24 so far.
Our champion this week is 100k Short, whose selection is as follows:
Martinez; Alexander-Arnold, Pedro Porro, Konsa; Odegaard, Salah (c), Olise, Son, Palmer; Watkins (vc), Alvarez.
The Scout Picks are 12-7 up on the community this season after Merlin Magic edged us 45-43 in Gameweek 19.
FOLLOW THE SCOUT’S WEEKLY TRANSFER PLANS
We’re running a Scout community team in FPL this season, with regulars like TopMarx, Tom Freeman, Marc Jobling and more contributing to the weekly decisions.
And we’re not just looking one week ahead like we are with the Scout Picks but instead planning in advance for the weeks and months to come.
You can follow our team via the Premier Fantasy Tools Pro Planner, which you can learn more about here.
We’re currently sitting at 65k in the world, at the halfway point of the season.
