Two more of Saturday’s Gameweek 20 matches – Aston Villa v Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton – are reviewed here, in our latest Scout Notes write-up.
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LUIZ’S BONUS POTENTIAL
Douglas Luiz (£5.5m) netted a late penalty at Villa Park, in turn securing the maximum three bonus points.
The Brazilian, who is now joint-top among all players for bonus (18) this season, level with Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m), Kieran Trippier (£6.8m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.3m), had his Gameweek 20 score boosted by a mix of passing and off-the-ball work.
It resulted in a 10-point haul, remarkably taking him up to seventh in the midfielder standings.
Four of Luiz’s six goals in 2023/24 have been penalties and there is limited open-play threat (he’s averaging just 0.66 shots in the box per 90 minutes this season), but he’s a complete central midfielder and set-piece specialist, which is helping him shine.
Up until Luiz’s late penalty, Villa weren’t at their top level against a Burnley team reduced to 10 men, but found a way to win, having recently dropped points to Sheffield United and Manchester United.
“It was so important for us because we didn’t play so well in the last two games. If we can win at home it’s so important for the fans. The group is very tired and now we have a few days off to enjoy. There are so many important players who have injuries and it’s hard but you need to keep going.” – Douglas Luiz
WATKINS’ ASSISTS
Leon Bailey (£5.6m) and Moussa Diaby (£6.6m) were on the scoresheet on Saturday, with both goals provided by Ollie Watkins (£8.9m).
The Birthday boy worked tirelessly off the ball at Villa Park, running the channels and creating space for others, showing the other side of his game.
He’s now up to 11 assists (eight Opta/three Fantasy) for the season, at least three more than any other player in FPL (see below).
His 20 attacking returns is another league-leading total.
Above: All players sorted by assists (TA) in 2023/24
Among all forwards, only Julian Alvarez (£7.0m) has created more chances than Watkins this season (30), with three of those against Burnley in Gameweek 20, but it was Bailey who was arguably Villa’s best attacker here.
He showed great composure to score the opening goal and always looked a threat on the wing, causing Charlie Taylor (£4.0m) all sorts of problems.
Bailey is now averaging 1.08 attacking returns per 90 minutes this season, a faster rate than any other player with a minimum of two starting XI appearances bar Erling Haaland (£13.9m).
VILLA’S CLEAN SHEET WIPEOUT
Aston Villa have now failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last four Premier League games and the two goals conceded against Burnley were entirely preventable.
The first, a Zeki Amdouni (£5.3m) half-volley, came from poor defending at a set-piece, while Lyle Foster (£4.8m) later managed to exploit the hosts high line.
Pau Torres (£4.7m) did at least return from injury as a second-half substitute and key midfielder Boubacar Kamara (£5.0m) will be back from suspension in Gameweek 21, but the fact Villa have conceded five goals in their last two matches is a concern.
Matty Cash (£4.7m) missed out in Gameweek 20 through illness, meanwhile.
Also, a quick word on Burnley’s Foster, who was a real threat from start to finish and scored his first goal since he took a break from football to address his mental health.
The Clarets played a bit more direct at Villa Park with lots of balls into the box, which played to his strengths.
Fixtures are mixed, but Foster faces Luton Town and Fulham at home in the next three Gameweeks, so could prove to be a decent buy who can easily sit on the bench in tougher matches.
“That is the reason I have a happy feeling after this game. We had a real human tragedy almost with Lyle when he broke down. To see him rebuilding his happiness, as a coach and as a human being, it is a beautiful story to observe.” – Vincent Kompany on Lyle Foster
CUNHA INSPIRES
Matheus Cunha (£5.8m) inspired Wolves to a dominant 3-0 win over Everton at Molineux.
The Brazilian got a goal and assist and is clearly in the form of his life, having scored four and set up four in his last nine Premier League outings.
In that time, he’s averaging 5.7 points per start, a figure beaten by only three other FPL forwards.
With Hwang Hee-chan (£5.7m) now leaving for the Asian Cup, Cunha will be more important than ever alongside Pedro Neto (£5.6m), who continued his recovery from injury with 10 minutes off the bench here.
Gary O’Neil’s side are now unbeaten in eight at home with nine goals scored in their last three but do face a tricky-ish run of fixtures.
However, it’s worth noting none of their forthcoming opponents – Brighton and Hove Albion, Manchester United, Chelsea, Brentford and Tottenham Hotspur – are particularly watertight right now, so Cunha shouldn’t be dismissed.
Elsewhere, Michael Dawson (£4.5m) and Max Kilman (£4.5m) were great at the back, each scoring their first goals of the season.
EVERTON POOR
As for Everton, their festive decline continues, with this their third successive Premier League defeat.
They were far from their best at Molineux and didn’t register a single shot on target, with their 10 efforts carrying a combined expected goals (xG) value of just 0.46.
Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) has clearly been a big miss for them and even recalling Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) to the starting XI here didn’t help.
It led to a tactical tweak, with Sean Dyche lining up his side in a back five, but that only left their centre-forward isolated and feeding off scraps.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Toffees either, with games against Aston Villa, Spurs and Manchester City in the next four Gameweeks.
“It’s not an ideal situation, it’s not my preferred way of playing but we felt it was appropriate for today.” – Sean Dyche
“We have asked a lot of the players. The fixture list is unkind. We have just come off the back of a run of [lots of] games with injuries. We’ve come a long way since the second game of the season but we lacked that bit of fizz and energy to take the game on. We fell short with the physicality of the game. They played really well and exposed moments when we looked jaded. We’ve done it to others ourselves and they did it to us today.” – Sean Dyche
