Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly FPL Q&A.
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Q: Top five Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m) replacements?
Q: The big one. Looking at team stats, player stats and upcoming fixtures, who is the best replacement for Son and/or Salah?
(via @FPL_Gazza2000 and FPL VIRGIN)
A: I had discussed my thoughts on potential replacements for Salah and Son in last week’s article and my thoughts have changed now that the injured Jarrod Bowen (£8.1m) is no longer a consideration. I shall rank them in order of preference, beyond the top two of Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) and Cole Palmer (£5.7m).
Phil Foden (£7.9m): We are in a period of limbo where there isn’t yet any clarity on the upcoming Blank and Double Gameweeks. Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Luton Town could miss Gameweek 26 but Liverpool and Manchester City might play twice in Gameweek 25. Also, we don’t know when Salah and Son will come back. Even Trent Alexander-Arnold’s (£8.5m) return is a bit vague, with the Chelsea game an initial target.
This is not helped by the fact that both Carabao Cup semi-finals are finely poised after the first leg. However, what we do know is that Man City will definitely play in Gameweek 26, key players are coming back fit and this is the time of the season when they usually go on a run. Their potential double in Gameweek 25 is not dependent on cup results either, although it could become another week.
Foden has been thriving in a midfield role and Kevin De Bruyne’s (£10.3m) latest comments indicate that his minutes will remain managed for a while. This should ensure Foden’s game-time at least over the short-term. Yes, a longer spell will always bring rotation risks with their non-Haaland attackers but this is the best I’ve seen Foden play in ages. When in such a purple patch, I think we should take advantage.
Richarlison (£6.9m): Much has been made of the Brazilian becoming a worse asset now that Timo Werner (£6.5m) has signed but I don’t think that is necessarily the case. Spurs are the league’s top-scoring side over the last six Gameweeks with 14 goals. They will continue to attack and, as centre-forward, he will continue to receive these chances. Naturally, things will get a bit murkier when Son is back but I still think Richarlison will be preferred to Werner up front.
Pascal Gross (£6.4m): I had to think a bit about the fifth one. Other contenders were Diogo Jota (£7.8m), Alejandro Garnacho (£4.8m) and Martin Odegaard (£8.5m) but I have cooled slightly on Jota. Liverpool’s schedule is quite busy after their break, as they play Bournemouth in the second weekend of Gameweek 21, quickly followed by Fulham in the EFL Cup second leg, the FA Cup fourth round, Gameweek 22 and then, a few days later, Gameweek 23. It’s very difficult to predict how Jurgen Klopp will shuffle that front three.
Garnacho is a decent enabler but not one to play every week, whilst I don’t trust Arsenal enough to purchase a second midfielder.
Although Gross is an unfashionable, non-explosive pick, you need these glue guys in your team. Brighton and Hove Albion’s fixtures look immense and he’s a great route into their goals while without European commitments.
Q: If we have Son, Salah, Alexander-Arnold and no Haaland, who should be the priority sale for those with only one free transfer?
(via @abhi_ab93)
A: This is a bit difficult to answer and is largely dependent on your substitutes. But if you were to guesstimate when the first three will return, you would say Alexander-Arnold first, Salah second and then Son, based on the information and odds available to us. Trent is potentially out for only one round of FPL. Furthermore, we don’t know for sure if Haaland will start in Gameweek 22, with the Norwegian still not in full training. It’s likely, but not completely certain.
So I would try holding on to Alexander-Arnold and see what information we get before the next deadline. He may miss all of the Gameweek 22 to 24 period but we’ll get more clarity on both that and Liverpool’s possible doubles and blanks by then.
South Korea’s odds of winning the Asian Cup are excellent so we can assume that Son will return after Salah. Although that is guesswork. Selling Salah is likely to free up cash that smoothly purchases Haaland next week, yet he’s also the one you’ll likely want back sooner. That’s still a bridge I’d rather cross in Gameweek 22, though.
For now, I’d get rid of Son even if it prevents a direct move to Haaland next week. The information we will receive is potentially worth the four-point hit needed. For example, if Liverpool get Double Gameweek 25, you might decide to use Saka to fund Haaland, instead of Salah. We also get to see how Egypt copes in the AFCON.
Q: With all the big hitters out, who is the best option for the armband? Also, who is the best differential captain?
(via DARK SIDE OF THE LOON)
A: The differential captain is an easy one for me this week – Joao Pedro (£5.4m). His minutes have never been more certain and he takes penalties.
Safer captaincy is a bit more tricky, I think it’s very close between Saka and Palmer. In terms of underlying numbers, the Arsenal man is far superior – even though Palmer has scored more goals (4-1) over the last six Gameweeks. Saka has taken 20 penalty area shots compared to just five for Palmer. The latter has landed more attempts on target (8-7) but these are mostly from outside the box. What is letting Saka and the whole Arsenal attack down is wasteful finishing.
Palmer did get a huge haul at Luton but Chelsea were poor in attack. It is very difficult to know which version of them will turn up on any given day and this worries me when considering a Palmer captaincy.
Arsenal will be playing Crystal Palace after a long rest with warm-weather training in Dubai. Meanwhile, the Eagles have an FA Cup replay versus Everton three days beforehand.
Of course, you can also make the case that Fulham have travelled to Anfield in midweek and might therefore be suffering from their own fatigue at Stamford Bridge. Personally, it’s a decision that will likely be made late but I am currently 60/40 towards Saka because I just trust Arsenal more. Palmer is a perfectly good pick but the Chelsea fan inside me always fears the worst with such a long Gameweek to sit through if it starts badly.
Q: Who do you see as being most affected by the absence of key players through this period? Who are you wary of in a negative way?
(via DERBZ87)
A: To oversimplify it, I think there are two kinds of teams. Ones that rely on individual players and ones that are system-driven. An example of the former is West Ham United, whose basic idea is to defend and then let flair players like Bowen, Mohammed Kudus (£6.9m) and Lucas Paqueta (£6.0m) deliver the goods. It’s the formula that worked during Jose Mourinho’s early years.
The second type is teams like Brighton, where the collective, the system and the philosophy is paramount. So they are much more equipped to deal with individual player absences. Spurs and Liverpool both fall into this category.
Will they be worse without Salah and Son? Certainly. Klopp’s side has lost Salah, Alexander-Arnold and is already without Andrew Robertson (£6.4m) but I think this drop-off will affect them less than West Ham, who have lost all three of their aforementioned attackers. They leave a huge void.
Liverpool will still get results, especially at Anfield, while Spurs continue to score goals. It’s just what they do under Ange Postecoglou.
Q: If your team had more flags than a pirate ship (six), would it be Wildcard time?
(via @BigDon88888)
A: The second Wildcard is one of the most – if not the most – valuable chip for an active FPL manager. I’d strongly advocate holding onto it, even with six flags in your squad. We know so little about the upcoming landscape and things could change drastically in the next fortnight.
Most players who have these flags are going to miss more than one match, meaning your hit is almost certainly going to repay itself over the next few Gameweeks. Just take as many as you need to get 11 on the pitch. If you have no playing bench, that’s fine. At worst, you’ll field 10 if somebody randomly misses out.
The player you sell is guaranteed zero points, meaning there’s no risk of it backfiring. There’s a famous quote: “In the midst of every crisis lies great opportunity.” Use this as an opportunity to freshen up your squad and save the second Wildcard for big gains later on.
My Gameweek 21 team plans
Hope you found this useful and thanks for reading.
