FPL notes: Elanga’s threat + how many managers benched Areola

Two of the teams who have Blank Gameweek 29 fixtures had contrasting fortunes against the Merseyside clubs on Saturday.

Everton v West Ham United and Nottingham Forest v Liverpool finish off our Saturday summaries.

• READ MORE: FPL notes: “Unbelievable” Foden + Iraola on Senesi’s injury
• READ MORE: FPL notes: Trippier’s injury a “concern”, Hwang + Richarlison latest
• READ MORE: FPL notes: “Fantastic” Watkins, Morris + Doughty’s role
• READ MORE: FPL notes: Toney scare, why Gross was benched + £4.5m Muniz
• READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 27: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus points + stats

AREOLA BENCHED BY NEARLY TWO MILLION

Alphonse Areola (£4.2m) is back on top of the goalkeeping standings in FPL after a 13-point haul on Saturday.

That he did it on the same weekend as Martin Dubravka (£4.2m) posted a rare clean sheet was Sod’s law: many Fantasy managers own both budget ‘keepers and have been deprived of returns from either of them lately.

A whopping 51.7% of Fantasy managers who own Areola benched the West Ham United custodian in Gameweek 27. That amounted to over 1.95 million of us, overall.

Areola returned big despite failing to keep a clean sheet at Goodison Park. His penalty save from Beto (£5.7m) had a big say in him collecting maximum bonus but so too did eight other stops.

Above: Alphonse Areola is now the leading goalkeeper for save points this season

Areola owes his lofty Fantasy standing to his two penalty saves this season.

Stripping away spot kick stops and the associated save/bonus point loss from all goalkeepers, this is how the table would look (ignoring the butterfly effect that a converted penalty would have had):

HAMMERS UNCONVINCING IN VICTORY

Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.8m) followed up their Gameweek 26 attacking returns with assists for West Ham’s second and third goals on Merseyside.

Both of those strikes came in second-half injury time and against the run of play, with Everton dominating proceedings. Bowen didn’t have a single shot all game, while his assist for Edson Alvarez (£5.0m) was his first and only chance created.

Even David Moyes had to admit that his side were fortunate in victory and reliant on Areola.

“I think the result was harsh on Everton but our goalkeeper made four or five outstanding saves.

“We have come through six or seven weeks when very little has gone for us; today I don’t know if it’s the right word in that it went for us but the goalkeeper made saves which he is there to do.

“He probably made the difference, his performance was terrific.” – David Moyes

The Hammers likely won’t have to be at their scintillating best in Gameweek 28 anyway, with Burnley in town.

Bowen is second only to Son Heung-min (£9.8m) for midfielder transfers in this week.

EVERTON: XG DEFIERS

Most weeks, especially when Everton are at home, we talk about the Toffees’ underperformance on expected goals (xG).

They were at it again on Saturday, wasting four of their five big chances, one of which was the penalty.

Even Sean Dyche is sick of talking about it.

“I try to tell the truth about the performances. It is a decent performance. It’s a performance that can win games, but you can’t keep creating [those chances and not winning]. I can’t keep saying the xG is through the roof. I can’t keep saying that.

“The chances – they’re there for all to see. It’s about time we took responsibility and got players scoring goals. That’s down to myself, and the coaches, but also the players on the pitch.” – Sean Dyche

Dyche’s latest attempt to solve the goalscoring woes saw Beto come in for Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m). He did at least find the net, something Calvert-Lewin hasn’t done since Gameweek 10.

But he wasted another glorious opening on top of his penalty, while Dwight McNeil (£5.4m) and Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) also spurned big chances.

DARWIN RETURNS, KELLEHER BOOST

“This game didn’t go easy for us. We didn’t have a great rhythm and the boys felt the intensity for the first time.” – Jurgen Klopp

Injury-hit Liverpool were running on fumes but they eked out yet another important victory in the title race on Saturday.

The Reds still have 10 players flagged with injury but they at least welcomed back Darwin Nunez (£7.5m), Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.1m), Wataru Endo (£5.4m) and Andrew Robertson (£6.4m) in some capacity at the City Ground. Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) is also nearing a return.

That should ensure a competitive XI when Jurgen Klopp’s side take on Manchester City in the super-est of Sunday fixtures next weekend.

The calibre of opponent, plus a blank in Gameweek 29, means that Liverpool will be off the menu for many Fantasy managers right now. The international break should ensure that the Reds are in much better shape when they reemerge onto the radar in Gameweek 30.

While Conor Bradley (£4.1m) may face a fresh challenge for his place from Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) at that juncture, Caoimhin Kelleher‘s (£3.7m) stint in the XI could go on a little longer. Klopp’s latest update on Alisson (£5.8m) suggested that the Brazilian had a “serious” injury, although he should return before the end of the season.

Substitute Darwin popped up with the late, late winner here, nodding in his 10th league goal of 2023/24. Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) and Erling Haaland (£14.5m) are the only forwards averaging more attacking returns per 90 minutes than the Uruguayan this season.

That was the 22nd and final shot Liverpool had against Forest, with Luis Diaz (£7.5m) again racking up the efforts. He had six in all, including one blocked at point-blank range, taking him to 29 over his last six matches – only Haaland and Phil Foden (£8.1m) can better that.

ELANGA A GAMEWEEK 29 DIFFERENTIAL

Those Gameweek 29 Free Hit drafts may look a little samey but Anthony Elanga (£5.1m) is a differential to consider.

Deployed here as a striker, with Divock Origi (£5.0m) playing off the right, he had Forest’s two best chances of the game. The first was denied by Kelleher’s outstretched leg, the second narrowly wide.

Even if shifted to the flank, with Origi or Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.3m) leading the line, Elanga poses a threat. He’s had an eye-catching seven big chances in the last four Gameweeks, while he’s the Tricky Trees’ leader for both attacking returns (12) and expected goal involvement (xGI, 8.87) this season. He’s admittedly got that profligate streak in him, like Darwin, but the underlying numbers are encouraging for a one-week, Hail Mary punt.

Bearing in mind the space he’d likely get behind Luton Town’s attacking wing-backs in Gameweek 29, he’s a name that deserves to be in the conversation for the big blank at the very least.

At the other end, Forest have now only kept one clean sheet in their last 16 league games.

But the underlying numbers look more encouraging under Nuno Espirito Santo. Bearing in mind that Forest have faced Newcastle United (twice), Aston Villa, Arsenal and Liverpool in his first 10 games in charge, the shut-out count could rise modestly in the more favourable fixtures ahead.

Above: Teams sorted by expected goals conceded (xGC) from Nuno’s appointment onwards

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